After Trump won the election, Bitcoin exceeded 76,000, and the bullish pattern was winning. However, compared to the price changes of Bitcoin, what is most beneficial to the growth of the entire industry ecosystem is the copycat season, and the industry is looking forward to richer growth. In the short term, we can see that the tokens of various tracks are already following the market and restarting their popularity. In these tracks that keep up with the market, "TON Ecosystem" is still closely watched by investors.

Since the Durov Paris incident 2 months ago, the TON ecosystem has fallen into crisis, or has entered a new stage of adjustment. Even though various Meme projects and mini-game projects in the ecosystem are still constantly being updated and updated. Event information, but market sensitive people seem to have felt the "limited belief" of the TON ecosystem.

For example, judging from market feedback, SOL has quickly rebounded to exceed 200 along with BTC, but TON’s increase is far less than this.

So for TON, what is the most beneficial thing for TON in this election event that attracts the attention of the industry? We can find some answers in Trump's 10 major promises for cryptocurrency. Among the promises, we see that not only are there measures for Bitcoin, but more measures will represent the U.S. dollar economy's "unblocking" of the cryptocurrency industry in the future. ”, this will be a powerful medicine for Telegram and TON, which have been in the fog for a long time.

With the expectation that the background is smooth, if the market continues to rise, what specific development expectations can we have for TON?

Favorable development background for TON

Before Durov’s news, the growth of the TON ecosystem was strong. Led by the several-fold growth of TON tokens, most ecological Defi tokens have increased by about 10 times. In addition to the token increase, attention has been even more outstanding. First, before Notcoin was launched, CEXs were competing to get online to include new TON ecological users. Finally, DOGS once again mobilized the enthusiasm of all Telegram users. These represent a huge market base. As long as the market rebounds, the rebound of TON ecological tokens will definitely be able to keep up.

However, in the downturn of the past two months, after the decline of TON tokens, the TVL and DEX trading volume in the ecosystem have declined with the popularity. This is the most worth thinking about data at present.

But when we understand TON from the perspective of long-term growth of the public chain, we may find that the current data performance is the data that will inevitably appear with the cycle in the growth process of the public chain. This first allows us not to worry about losing TON in future public chain competition. position, but can continue to look at TON from a long-term perspective.

Just like the development trend of DEX, user education in the entire industry is paving the way for high-speed public chains such as TON.

On October 28, according to SolanaFloor’s disclosure, the trading volume of Solana DEX during the week reached US$15.78 billion, which was 77.91% higher than Ethereum’s US$8.87 billion, setting the largest lead over Ethereum. As a result, Solana’s trading volume in the entire DEX chain reached 35%, setting a record high.

At the same time, according to data from The Block and DefiLlama, the spot trading volume of DEX relative to CEX accounted for 14.12% in October, setting a new high since May 2023.

This trend continues to confirm a trend: with the popularity of high-speed chains, the boundary between user trading behavior between DEX and CEX is becoming increasingly blurred.

Under the multiple trends in the industry regarding on-chain liquidity supply, the maturity of on-chain token market value management, and the prevalence of small and medium-sized projects, and under the influence of comprehensive conditions such as user transactions becoming more and more blurry for transaction scenarios, we will eventually see that user behavior will change. It has become: more trading behaviors and interactive behaviors return to the native transaction exchange on the chain, or trading behaviors based on DEX and Web3-style interactions as the main idea.

Compared with the current background facilities hotspots of various chains, TON itself is an ecosystem with a more blurred boundary between DEX and CEX. Its Web2 interaction method first blurs the transaction categories, and the TON wallet on Telegram further reduces the Web3 The leap-forward entry barrier of native transactions to Web2 means simpler and more convenient native transactions on the chain, or it may surpass the convenience of transactions currently implemented on Solana.

We can imagine that in the Solana environment, excellent DEXs can achieve skyrocketing transaction volume in a short period of time. For example, Dune data shows that the total transaction volume of Jupiter, the Solana ecological DEX aggregator, is close to 334 billion US dollars, and it has reached tens of billions of US dollars. Uniswap took several times as long as Jupiter.

In addition, the price of DEXRaydium, the most active token on Solana, has performed exceptionally recently. Even when BTC, ETH and most altcoins have retraced their steps, they still maintain an upward trend in currency prices. This fully proves the importance of DEX and Defi itself in the currency. A stable advantage that can be obtained when prices rise and fall.

For such a development path, TON already has the infrastructure and development thinking in place, it just needs a bit of heat.

The growth history of public chains

TON has been very impressive at the beginning of this cycle. But today, when the cycle rotation is unclear, it is difficult for TON to have the previous time advantage and external potential energy like Ethereum and Solana. Seeking stability, maintaining infrastructure perfection, and waiting for opportunities to explode at any time seems to still be the main proposition of TON. Just like for the 2024 cycle development, TON has been quietly preparing for a year. By tracing the growth of Ethereum and Solana, we can find TON’s clear development thinking.

First of all, if the economic model of the public chain wants to enter a positive cycle, the core lies in the continuous transactions, which represent all possible interactions on the chain.

On Ethereum and Solana, DEX and Defi behaviors dominate the mainstream, all brought about by users using DApps. Therefore, the development idea of ​​bringing rich and diversified application types to the ecosystem is suitable for TON.

To summarize, both Ethereum and Solana have gone through these steps:

1. The number of ecological project tokens TGE is increasing rapidly

To put it simply, taking advantage of the good cycle, a large number of ecological projects will issue tokens and launch DEX or Defi to start business.

Ethereum started in this stage in 2018, and it completely formed a wave before Defi Summer, which included the emergence of Uniswap, the emergence of various wallet applications, major EVM projects, DEX, and Defi successively issued coins to stimulate business growth.

Solana emerged as a challenger to Ethereum during Defi Summer. In the early days of the ecosystem, foundations promoted a large number of TGE projects. Even though the chain was not perfect at this time, there were not many interactions on the chain, but Solana stimulated the ecosystem. has continued, even if the impact of the SBF incident has not completely stalled.

At the beginning of this cycle, the number of tokens in the TON ecosystem surged, and the popularity and growth of the tokens were also very impressive. This is very similar to the corresponding stages of Ethereum and Solana.

2. Defi TVL growth

After a large number of ecological project tokens TGE, the most direct impact is TVL. The native applications of public chains are all related to token transactions, and the Defi category accounts for 90%. When tokens are launched on DEX and Defi start business, they will bring lock-up, so TVL data is the second necessity for the growth of public chains. data.

Every token listed on DEX will inevitably need to increase the trading pool, which is often the first amount of locked funds. If you interact with Defi business, such as borrowing and depositing coins, token pledges will inevitably occur. This is the second basic action for the growth of TVL. Incentives for this action will be token airdrops, mining, interest-earning on deposits and loans, etc.

During Defi Summer, Ethereum was dually stimulated by the surge in TGE and Defi tokens. TVL increased by about 100 times. In the later period, as the price increased, TVL soared again. This part of Solana's growth will come from the ecological popularity in 2023 and the airdrop of the ecological plan in 2024, TGE, etc.

In the past six months, TON's TVL has risen to US$700 million and then began to correct before it exceeded US$800 million. This is the result of the retracement of ecological enthusiasm. At the same time, like Ethereum and Solana, it needs to return to growth after the first growth. The richness of ecological application projects, both Ethereum and Solana took 2 years again. How long will TON last?

3. The rich accumulation of DEX and Defi

Ethereum and Solana have completed two years of accumulation of richness. One was the bear market winter of 2018, and the other was the retracement of popularity after Defi Summer.

At this stage, Uniswap V1 on Ethereum has matured, MakerDAO and AAVE have appeared, Cruve and Compound have started, Sushiswap has also quickly followed up, and Farm mining projects have appeared one by one. These projects have contributed to the maturity of DEX and Defi. By the second round of application development, DEXs such as Uniswap have iterated at least two versions, and Defi such as AAVE has also expanded from a single chain to almost all EVM-based chains.

During the accumulation process of Solana, DEXs such as Raydium and Jupiter also appeared, as well as a large number of Defi that pledged SOL tokens. Therefore, the maturity of these applications is necessary. They represent a more convenient and faster business for users, and also The user's real money will be locked on the public chain.

It is still early for TON to mature. Currently, the DEX function is relatively single and the number of Defi is small. The first step before waiting for an opportunity to break out is to increase the diversity and maturity of Defi.

The first step in TON’s growth

In the past year, TON experienced the first growth in the number of ecological project tokens. A large number of tokens and small and medium-sized projects began to list, airdrop, and IEO. After that, TVL grew rapidly, and this time TVL and price dropped. After that, as the popularity decreases, ecological projects will also be affected, and trust needs to be rebuilt in the future. At this time, it is more and more required that in this round, practical help for ecological diversification is required, that is, the maturity of DEX and Defi is required.

In reality, TON is also at this stage, which is also the first step in TON’s growth.

What we can see is that the DEX of Ethereum and Solana have matured very well in the cycle. So what is the current situation of TON? How much is the difference, and where is the difference?

TON’s performance and pressure-bearing capacity are the only ones that can rival Solana among all current public chains. However, the DEX of the TON ecosystem cannot match a good horse with a good saddle.

Telegram has a built-in centralized trading pool to complete the recharge of stablecoins and TON, and then complete the exchange of TON and other tokens. The operation experience is consistent with CEX’s flash exchange. This function is the first function of Telegram's Wallet. The second function is to complete the interaction with the chain through the TON public chain wallet TONSpace. The experience is basically the same as using MetaMask on the PC and mobile terminals. If you need to exchange tokens, STON and Dedust are more commonly used in the ecosystem, but their functions are basically similar to Uniswap V1.

This reflects TON's shortcomings in DEX. If Telegram Wallet is responsible for the CEX experience, TONSpace and DEX can interact on the PC and mobile terminals, and Telegram's MiniApp and Bot will also be the transaction front-end for DEX or CEX functions. These designs satisfy the optimization of transaction experience, but the native interaction part of the back-end chain is obviously lagging behind.

If Solana and DEX on Ethereum can only provide the same exchange capabilities as simple AMM pools and Uniswap V1, then the business richness of Defi on Ethereum and Solana will be reduced by at least 50%.

On Ethereum, Defi is mostly an extension of the DEX function outside of the financial scenario. After Uniswap initially iterated the design of LP in AMM, Defi on Ethereum had more new businesses or directly copied businesses. model (based on liquidity mining, depositing coins to earn interest, upgrading to multi-liquidity pool mutual offset, etc.), the same is true for Solana. Being an LP in DEX and serving as a high-level liquidity provider on a dedicated liquidity platform are also today’s assets. One of the best options for holders.

Therefore, from the perspective of project development, for high-speed blockchain DEX, it is important to provide transaction liquidity, or to modularize the transaction function, so that the advantage of liquidity becomes the reason for user choice.

For transactions on TON, a large number of front-end entrances must exist in Telegram. DEX still needs to increase the sophistication of the business like Jupiter, Balancer, etc., and achieve a balance for all users, whether they are users or token providers. , liquidity provider, or platform developer, each role requires certain refined functions to support it.

Compared with DEXs such as Uniswap, Balancer, Jupiter, etc., it has become inevitable for DEXs on TON to develop in the direction of complementing DEX functions or complementing Defi functions.

LayerPixel, the currently known transaction middleware on the project chain, has launched PixelSwap, the first step in repairing DEX functions based on the Balancer function. For DEX, airdrops are the fastest way to attract users. In a new round of action, LayerPixel said that PixelSwap has started an airdrop plan and it has determined that the TGE time of the token PIX is Q4. Faced with the current changes in the TON ecosystem, perhaps PixelSwap can still advance steadily like Raydium in the short term.

LayerPixel is a DeFi solution designed for Telegram Mini App, which can achieve seamless integration of DeFi and Telegram Mini Apps. Officially called TON’s Layer 1.5. It can provide a multi-modular combination of functions including wallets, DEX (multiple trading algorithms) services, oracles, etc. PixelWallet focuses on account abstraction, and Pixacle can provide fast and accurate price data for DApps and smart contracts in the ecosystem.

Pixelswap is a DEX based on a weight pool. It has the same function as Balancer and supports the LBP asset issuance method. Moreover, this type of Dutch auction issuance method is suitable for small and medium-sized projects with low FDV. This is the most common one in the Telegram ecosystem. Game/GameFi projects, which is why it can supplement the Defi demand of the TON ecosystem. LBP's asset issuance method makes it easier for small and medium-sized projects to complete token issuance in the early stages and maintain a more reasonable transaction price.

During the period of rapid development and growth, ordinary DEX is the mainstream, but once it enters a downward trend, the price of tokens in DEX becomes more difficult to market than CEX. At this time, the more sophisticated the design, the better to achieve a win-win situation. For the B-side, it is more suitable for management and control. For the C-side, it also makes the unofficial LP of DEX more like a mature LP in a centralized exchange, which can actively guarantee funds. Yield and isolation of risks, as well as price stability.

At this point in time, during the call-back stage of growth, this type of DEX appears just right.

In addition to PixelSwap, the liquidity sharing between DEX on TON and the structure that may form liquidity hedging between various Defi also need to be stable. Nowadays, after the project issues tokens, it cannot establish pledge mining or in most Defi. Various types of currency deposit and financial management, etc.

One of the reasons for the rapid increase in the amount of token lock-up on Solana is that lending projects, stake and retake projects are following popular projects to add projects, such as Marginfi and Meteora on Solana, and almost all new tokens on Solana are proactive The token pool has been increased. Although most tokens have no financial returns, the platform provides incentives for points or airdrop expectations, and also allows investors to deposit large amounts of assets to compete for airdrop expectations. As long as TON follows the same method, it will have the same effect.

write at the end

Before the Durov incident, our expectations for TON were very high, but the declining popularity of the ecosystem has caused pain to both ecological projects and investors. However, this is already a familiar rhythm in the industry, and there are always investors who insist on the project. It is surprisingly long-lasting, and no matter where the next opportunity for ignition is in the future, a week or a few months, it is time left for builders to enrich the ecology.

At this stage of TON, users and projects will gradually realize the difference between new DEX and new functions, or one day they will find that new DEX like PixelSwap has attracted a large amount of TVL and established many staking pools. It will show that the ecosystem is ready for another growth, ready to cope with the growing transaction volume, the continuous issuance of new projects, and the rapid increase of liquidity pools and liquidity mining.

(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with the authorization of our partner PANews, original text link | Source: Wyz Research)

Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.

"Under the "Trump Promise" vision, is there still hope for TON ecological development? "This article was first published on (Block Guest).