The breaking point of this round of market trends lies in the expectations surrounding Trump's trade war.

The first U.S.-China trade war probably started between February and April of 2018, and the impact of the trade war led to a sluggish market in 2018 and 2019. Therefore, when referring to that historical data, it needs to be further overestimated.

When Biden took office in 2020 and inherited a mess, there were expectations for interest rate cuts that were much greater than now. Based on this, the trends of 2020 and 2021 should be underestimated when used as a reference.

After Trump initiated the trade war, U.S. stocks were bound to face pressure, likely leading to sideways movement or even declines. Moreover, during Trump's previous term, only the first year was focused on economic development. Based on this, it is unlikely that Trump would immediately start a trade war; he would probably take less than a year to focus on economic issues to fulfill voter promises. This means that this current bull market has at most 14 months left, during which there is also the risk of war. Therefore, in order to secure their profits, market makers may appear more anxious in this bull market, and fluctuations will be more intense.

According to historical data, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is increasingly smoothing out. However, with these factors added, this time it may not be smoother than in 2021, extending the bull market to the end of the halving cycle.