Analyst Benjamin Cowen recently shared his thoughts on the potential future of ETH and BTC, suggesting that while he does not expect prices to drop sharply, there is still a possibility of more downturns before things reverse. Below is a detailed analysis of his insights:
ETH/BTC hitting bottom
Cowen mentioned that the ETH/BTC pair may be approaching a bottom, citing past trends when Ethereum experienced explosive price increases after reaching a bottom. He pointed to 2019, when Ethereum surged 33% after hitting a bottom against Bitcoin.
Current situation: ETH has increased 26-27% from recent lows against Bitcoin. If the ETH/BTC pair holds above the 50-day moving average, Cowen believes we may see more bullish potential.
Resistance level: The next resistance level for ETH/BTC is around 0.042–0.043, the bullish market support range. If ETH can surpass this level, it may signal the next bullish move.
Bitcoin dominance and its impact on ETH
Cowen noted that Bitcoin's dominance typically increases at the end of Bitcoin halving year (Q4), but this year's dominance has been unpredictable.
Bitcoin dominance in 2024: Although dominance typically increases in the previous quarter, this year it has fluctuated more than usual. Cowen believes that if Bitcoin's dominance increases again in Q4, it could lead to some altcoins, including ETH, being sold off.
Price volatility of ETH/BTC: Nevertheless, Cowen argues that even if other Bitcoin pairs decline, ETH/BTC does not necessarily have to drop further or may remain stable.
Ethereum price movements and the role of Bitcoin
The analyst believes that ETH/USD will be significantly influenced by Bitcoin's price volatility. If Bitcoin drops below the critical level of $70,000, it could signal weakness in the market, potentially dragging ETH down as well.
Support level for ETH/USD: Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 could indicate further downside risk for Ethereum. However, Cowen believes that the cyclical view (based on past trends) should still be followed, as long as Bitcoin remains above this critical level.
Bottom of ETH/BTC: Are we about to hit it?
Cowen speculates that we might be close to the bottom of the ETH/BTC pair, especially as Bitcoin currently accounts for 60%. However, he stated that the market is uncertain and there is always a possibility that prices could drop even lower.
Potential lower bottom: Although Cowen believes the current level could be a bottom, he remains cautious, acknowledging that ETH/BTC could still decline before any real recovery.
Looking ahead: As of now, Cowen considers the level of $0.03465 as a potential bottom for ETH/BTC and believes we might see confirmation of the bottom by the end of 2024.
