Cryptocurrency market secondary fund Metrics Ventures November market observation guide:
1/ The chaotic consolidation that has lasted for 7 months has finally come to an end. The price actions before and after the election clearly illustrate the liquidity dilemma on-site and the increasingly strong pricing power off-site, which have been emphasized repeatedly in the past few months. The trading behavior of the past cycle is increasingly constrained by the transition of the broader environment, and the market has given all participants a clear answer.
2/ From the perspective of on-site operations, various operations of altcoins are constrained by the obvious lack of liquidity, leading to price actions ending in failure. This month's total market capitalization limit for fully circulating altcoins is around 1 billion USD, and the loss of price anchoring for new coins and the rapid rotation of the Meme sector further confirm the liquidity flow issue on-site.
3/ Strategies will no longer be repetitive; whether it’s the future FOMC or geopolitical issues, they are not the determining factors for the overall trend. The tide is vast and continuing to quietly accompany the industry's growth is the best strategy.
Summary and commentary on the overall market situation and market trends:
As of the beginning of the month when I started writing, the biggest difference between the market and the last monthly report is:
① The unexpectedly smooth landing of the election has significantly alleviated risk concerns, Bitcoin has broken new highs with increased volume. Although confirmation of the breakthrough will still take time, the previous hidden worries should be eliminated from any technical school's perspective.
②The four major geopolitical factors, the long-term rise in U.S. Treasury yields, excessive Trump trades, and the risk of insufficient liquidity that have shrouded this month have now been reduced by half. Due to the unexpectedly strong government, the market may grant various assets an optimistic risk premium for a certain period.
③ Unfortunately, there is still no clear improvement in liquidity on-site. The current breakthrough is far from the momentum and sentiment at the beginning of the year. Although many VC coins are at the end of the March consolidation cycle, it currently seems that large-scale market movements cannot be compared to previous rounds.
In the long run, the bell of the new era has already rung. Perhaps insights on macro, political, military, and economic issues vary from person to person, but the funding operation model and future positioning of the reservoir have already been clearly stated. It needs to be reiterated that the change in the flow path of funds has led to an increasingly weak linkage between BTC and on-site Altcoins. The so-called comprehensive altcoin season, under the backdrop of high penetration, is left with only the paths of ultra-loose liquidity and innovative gameplay.
This month's report is particularly brief, the true meaning lies in riding the wave, trading trends, this heart is bright, what more can be said.