CoinVoice has learned that a research report from CICC points out that by mid-2025, U.S. inflation and economic data may gradually warm up, and the pace of rate cuts may gradually stop. With Trump's election, the risk of interest rates rising is greater than the risk of falling, and a 100bps rate cut may be an appropriate magnitude.
The market's expectations for future rate cut paths are currently undergoing a process of swinging from one extreme to another, influenced by recent economic data, especially after the elections. In terms of pace, inflation and economic data may gradually rebound by mid-2025, leading to a gradual halt in rate cuts.
CICC estimates that inflation will show a year-on-year tail effect in the fourth quarter of this year due to base issues, but driven by declining rents, both inflation and core inflation are not expected to face significant pressure until the first quarter of 2025. In terms of magnitude, a rate cut to around 3.5% is a reasonable level. [Original link]