Tonight at 3 AM (UTC+8), the Federal Reserve will announce its November interest rate decision, and a rate cut of 25 basis points has almost become a foregone conclusion. However, due to the impact of Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the market's focus has shifted from the magnitude of the cut to the number of cuts.
During the campaign, Trump proposed three major policy goals: tax cuts, immigration restrictions, and increased tariffs. If Trump comes to power and fulfills his promise of fiscal expansion, it will expand the US government's fiscal deficit, leading to rising inflation. Although Powell has emphasized that the Fed is a non-political institution and will not participate in politics in any way, the consequences of Trump's expansionary fiscal policy will force the Fed to change its monetary policy. As JPMorgan said, Trump's ability to reshape the Fed may only gradually realize over time.
It is reported that the interest rate market still predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points, but has reduced bets on rate cuts next year, expecting that by September next year the Fed will have cut rates by a total of 100 basis points.
Stimulated by positive factors from the US election, BTC is currently near its historical highest level, with market sentiment extremely greedy, and the competition between bulls and bears intensifying. According to AICoin (aicoin.com) analysis, if the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points tonight as expected, it is unlikely to cause significant fluctuations, but attention should be paid to Powell's speech at 3:30 AM. If he reiterates his stance or reveals more information on rate adjustments, it may reshape confidence in the interest rate market, and BTC may experience violent fluctuations; specific opportunities can be found below.
Large-scale funds have entered the spot BTC ETF
Stimulated by Trump's victory, a large amount of capital flowed into the US spot Bitcoin ETF market yesterday, with a cumulative net inflow of $622 million. Among them, FBTC, ARKB, and BITB all saw inflows of over $100 million, but IBIT has turned into a net outflow of $69.1 million.
Coinbase BTC premium turns positive
A month later, Coinbase BTC premium turns positive; as of the time of writing, the premium rate is 0.0607%, at a two-month high. According to AICoin analysis, a positive Coinbase premium means that US traders holding spot BTC will experience more stable price increases. However, the changes in premium may also be influenced by the election; previously, during the general election, traders used USDT to bet on the election results, leading to negative premiums, and now the premium has returned to normal.
The current price is far from BTC's maximum pain point
AICoin index data shows that the maximum pain point for BTC options this week is 68,000, and for ETH is 2500, both far from the current price, and attention should be paid to the potential for selling option pressure.
The maximum pain point for options refers to the price at which the option buyer loses the most and the seller profits the most when the options expire. When the current price is above the maximum pain point, it indicates that the current market price deviates from the level most preferred by option sellers, and therefore the option sellers (usually institutional investors) may attempt to push the asset price towards the maximum pain point through market operations to achieve maximum profits. However, this does not mean that the price will drop significantly in the short term, but rather indicates that there is considerable upward pressure in the future, and the risk of market volatility also increases.
Selling pressure has surged, but the main force remains bullish
After BTC surged past $73,000 yesterday, spot large holders continued to sell, having sold a total of $680 million, with an average selling price of $74,577.02. Selling pressure surged, but according to the main force's sell orders, large holders still remain bullish, with $188 million in sell orders placed above the current price, with a maximum bullish outlook of $80,000.
Main force selling order usage: before transaction (price needs to rise to complete the sell order), bullish; after transaction, bearish. Experience it immediately: https://www.aicoin.com/vip/
Multi-period display BTC is at a critical position
• 1 hour
MACD has formed both bar divergence and line divergence signals (divergence resonance), and BTC has dipped to touch the EMA24 moving average but closed above it, while also receiving support from the chip peak (point: $74,467)
Moving average usage: if it dips without breaking the moving average, it rebounds; if it rises without breaking the moving average, it retreats.
• 12 hours
RSI (12) shows a top divergence, but the chip peak at $74,275 provides support
• Daily level
The price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band (40,2), forming an overbought signal, while also breaking through the upper edge of the upward parallel channel. The latest candlestick is a bearish one, and attention can be focused on the trend line and Bollinger upper band support (point: $74,315)
• Support zone: $74,275~$74,315; lower support can focus on the chip peak or moving average point
• Resistance levels: $76,000, $77,000; higher resistance can focus on the selling order points of the spot main force
Data is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
