Author: TechFlow
The US election is over, and the biggest winners besides Trump and Musk is the Frenchman Théo (pseudonym).
Before the election, Théo used four anonymous accounts to place bets on the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket, with a total bet amount of more than $30 million, and was expected to earn nearly $50 million.
Théo claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who worked as a trader at several banks and began using mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls this summer.
The trader not only predicted that Trump would win the presidential election, but also bet that he would win the popular vote and several key swing states, including traditionally blue states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Théo dared to make such a bet not simply because he guessed that Trump would win, but because he personally took action and commissioned a polling organization to use the "neighborhood method" to conduct a survey and obtained real poll data.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Théo’s betting strategy is mainly based on doubts about the accuracy of US poll data. He believes:
Mainstream polls significantly underestimate Trump’s support;
There is a “shy Trump voter effect,” where some Trump supporters are reluctant to take a stand in polls;
Traditional polling methods are biased, especially polls conducted by mainstream media, which tend to favor the Democratic Party;
To address these issues, Théo proposed using a "neighborhood poll," which asks respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. He believes this method more accurately reflects voters' true intentions because people may indirectly reveal their preferences when guessing where their neighbors will vote.
Théo cited the results of several polls conducted in September 2023 that used the "neighbor method." These surveys showed that when neighbors were asked about their likely voting preferences, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's support rate was several percentage points lower than when respondents were asked directly about their own preferences. Théo believes this confirms that traditional polls have once again underestimated Trump's support rate.
Théo also revealed that he had commissioned a survey from a major polling agency to measure the "neighborhood effect," and the results were "shocking and in favor of Trump."
Théo claimed that he bet on Trump purely for profit and with absolutely no political purpose.
In addition, Théo has repeatedly criticized public opinion polls in the United States. He is particularly critical of polls conducted by mainstream media, which, in his opinion, are biased towards the Democratic Party and often produce abnormal poll results that favor Harris.
Théo suggested that American polling organizations should also use the neighbor method in future surveys to avoid embarrassing mistakes again.