According to U.S. media calculations, Republican presidential candidate Trump has secured at least 270 electoral votes, meaning he has locked in victory!
During the presidential campaign, in order to gain more support, Trump has often shown goodwill towards the crypto industry. At the Bitcoin conference on July 27, Trump stated that if elected again, he would fully support crypto development and commit to making the U.S. a 'Bitcoin superpower.' Regardless of (how credible Trump's promises made at the Bitcoin conference are), he has indeed made many commitments to attract crypto voters.
From anti to pro, how did Trump's attitude towards the crypto industry reach this point? What potential impacts will it bring?
01
The Journey of Trump's Shift from Anti-Crypto to Pro-Crypto
Trump was born on June 14, 1946, grew up in New York City, and graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is the son of real estate developer Fred Trump. Through the family business, Trump accumulated considerable wealth and fame in the 1970s and 1980s, with assets spanning New York City's real estate market and various business projects, including Trump Tower and several luxury hotels and casinos.
Later, Trump gained further fame by hosting the NBC reality show The Apprentice, where he became a public figure known as a 'savvy businessman.'
In 2015, Trump officially announced his candidacy for the 2016 U.S. presidential election as a Republican candidate, subsequently defeating Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in November 2016 to become the 45th president of the United States.
1) Identified Anti-Fans
During his presidency (January 20, 2017 - January 20, 2021), Trump's overall attitude towards crypto assets was relatively negative. His early stance on crypto can be traced back to July 2019, when he first publicly criticized Bitcoin and crypto assets on Twitter, explicitly stating at the time that he was not a 'fan' of Bitcoin and other crypto assets, criticizing Bitcoin as not being real currency, and pointing out its 'extreme volatility, based on thin air,' expressing that he would not be surprised if it fell below $6,000. Additionally, he expressed concerns about Bitcoin and other crypto assets being used for illegal activities, such as drug trafficking and other criminal behavior.
In 2020, regarding Facebook's planned digital currency Libra (now known as Diem), Trump criticized Libra on Twitter, stating that there is only one real currency in the U.S., which is the dollar, and that any other crypto asset attempting to replace the dollar should face strict regulation. He believes that only a regulated financial system based on powerful national currencies like the dollar can ensure stability and security.
During Trump's presidency, his administration also took a relatively conservative and strict policy stance on crypto assets.
Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing: Trump's administration's main concern about crypto centered on its potential illegal uses, including money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism financing. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) under the U.S. Treasury strengthened regulation of crypto asset transactions, requiring crypto trading platforms to comply with anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) regulations. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also emphasized several times that crypto assets pose a threat to national security and require increased regulation.
Securities Regulation: Under Trump's leadership, the SEC continued to crack down on unregistered crypto asset securities issuances. The SEC initiated enforcement actions against several ICO projects, accusing them of failing to register as securities sellers. Additionally, the Trump administration strengthened scrutiny of crypto trading platforms to ensure compliance with existing securities laws.
Homeland Security and Law Enforcement Actions: During Trump's presidency, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) increased monitoring of crypto assets to combat cybercrime and illegal activities. The Trump administration repeatedly emphasized that illegal activities conducted using crypto assets (such as drug trafficking, cyberattacks, etc.) pose significant national security threats.
During the 2020 presidential election campaign, Trump did not speak much about crypto assets, but his administration took a tougher regulatory stance on them. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and other officials repeatedly emphasized the need for strict regulation of crypto assets, mentioning that these assets could pose a threat to financial stability.
Overall, Trump's early statements reflected a high degree of skepticism and denial towards crypto assets.
2) Step by Step from Anti to Pro
After leaving office, Trump has criticized Bitcoin and crypto assets multiple times in media interviews, believing these digital assets could undermine the U.S. financial system and national security. However, he also acknowledged the rapid growth of the crypto market, stating that the government should take measures to strengthen regulation of crypto assets to prevent their use in illegal activities. This tone has softened compared to his opposition during his presidential term, showing his growing interest in the field.
Soften Attitude
In a 2021 interview with Fox Business, Trump stated that he hates Bitcoin because it competes with the dollar, viewing it as a 'competing currency,' wishing for the dollar to become 'the world currency,' and believing that they may foster criminal activity while emphasizing the need for stricter government regulation.
In an interview with One America News, Trump stated that crypto assets are a 'dangerous investment,' warning investors to be cautious.
Change of Position
According to reports, Trump announced on November 15, 2022, that he would run in the 2024 presidential election. Subsequently, leveraging his personal brand and influence, Trump launched a series of NFTs featuring his image, marking his entry into the crypto asset and digital collectibles market.
December 2022: Trump launched his first series of NFTs, totaling 45,000, each priced at $99. These NFTs showcased various virtual images of Trump, such as superheroes and historical figures, marking his official entry into the crypto market.
June 2023: He launched the second series of NFTs, continuing to center around Trump's image, but adding some new designs and themes, along with rare versions.
March 2024: The third series of NFTs was launched, emphasizing scarcity and limited edition features, while providing more interactive opportunities, such as virtual event tickets and online meeting chances with Trump.
When launching the NFTs, Trump referred to them as 'precious collectibles.' He acknowledged the uniqueness and scarcity of NFTs, seizing the opportunity to attract the attention of supporters and investors, while providing fans with new ways to interact with him. Additionally, in a July 16 interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, he mentioned that he would soon launch a fourth NFT series featuring his image.
Campaigning
In 2024, Trump has been frequently appearing in the crypto circle, making multiple public pro-crypto declarations. However, before exploring the reasons behind this, it is necessary to understand the U.S. presidential election system. The U.S. presidential election (also known as the U.S. general election) is held every four years and is divided into five steps: primary elections, national conventions, the presidential election, electoral voting, and congressional confirmation. Taking this year's election as an example:
Primaries: From mid-January to June 2024, both the Republican and Democratic parties will select their intra-party candidates through primaries or caucuses in various states.
National Conventions: The Republican National Convention will be held from July 15-18, 2024, and the Democratic National Convention from August 19-22, where each party will formally nominate their presidential candidates and announce their vice presidential candidates.
Presidential Election: Scheduled for November 5, 2024, citizens can vote for any presidential candidate (regardless of their own party affiliation, whether they participated in the primaries, or who they voted for previously).
Electoral Voting: The U.S. presidential election uses an electoral college system, where states allocate electors based on population. A candidate wins all of a state's electors by securing the majority of the popular vote in that state. Obtaining more than 270 electoral votes will elect the president. The electoral college voting takes place on December 17 in their respective states. By January 3, 2025, the electoral votes must be certified and submitted to Congress.
Congressional Confirmation: According to U.S. federal law, Congress must convene on January 6, 2025, to tally and announce the results of the electoral college voting, with the winner's inauguration taking place at the Capitol on January 20, 2025.
This also explains why, so far in the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has frequently made many favorable commitments to crypto development, and as a candidate, he has supported accepting crypto asset donations early this year and attended the Bitcoin conference held on July 27 to give a speech. Specific statements or commitments regarding Bitcoin or crypto assets include:
A. Bitcoin has developed independently, with more and more people wanting to use Bitcoin for payments. He himself is also preparing to accept Bitcoin, but it needs some regulation.
B. If elected president again, his administration would not crack down on the use of Bitcoin or other crypto assets through regulatory agencies. He expressed a desire for U.S. crypto businesses to not be driven overseas.
C. If elected again, he will reduce the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, and firmly support the development of the crypto industry.
D. At the Bitcoin conference, he proposed creating a national Bitcoin reserve and establishing a Bitcoin and crypto asset advisory committee to support the industry's development. He stated that if elected, he would fire current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to end what he called the 'persecution' of the crypto industry.
E. He will ensure that all Bitcoin jobs in the U.S. are maintained during his presidency to promote innovation and economic growth and will never allow the creation of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
F. In an interview, Trump mentioned that Bitcoin mining could be the last line of defense against CBDCs and expressed a desire for Bitcoin to be manufactured in the U.S. to help achieve energy dominance.
G. Crypto assets will not disappear; the U.S. crypto industry has a solid foundation but is still in its early stages. He emphasized that he does not want other countries to dominate this field.
H. Plans are forthcoming to make the U.S. the 'global capital of crypto assets.'
I. Additionally, in February of this year, Trump's campaign team announced that they would accept cryptocurrency donations, allowing supporters to donate any cryptocurrency through Coinbase Commerce products. A crypto assistant for Trump's campaign revealed that he had inquired whether Bitcoin could be used to address the U.S. national debt issue.
J. On September 16, Trump and his son also announced the co-founding of a new crypto platform called World Liberty Financial, aimed at becoming a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform offering lending, digital asset storage, and other services.
As the U.S. elections (in early November) approach, it is evident that Trump's attitude towards crypto has shifted from skepticism and opposition to acceptance and support. This change is due to his gradual recognition of the importance of crypto assets in the political, economic, and technological fields, integrating them into his political strategy and proposing various policies and recommendations to support crypto development.
Trump's pro-crypto stance has indeed attracted a portion of Republican voters and supporters from the crypto industry, and his campaign has received significant funding from the crypto sector, indicating that he may further promote the development of the crypto industry in the future.
Moreover, Trump has also had some influence on the crypto industry. In May, after Trump commented on crypto assets, the Trump-themed memecoin MAGA (TRUMP) surged by 78% on May 9. Additionally, during Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference, the crypto market experienced significant volatility. Bitcoin's price initially dropped by $1,200, falling below $67,000, and then quickly rebounded to break through $69,000 at the end of his speech, nearing this year's peak of $70,000 in March.
