Original｜Odaily Planet Daily
Author: jk
In the just-concluded 2024 US election, Republican candidate Donald Trump successfully won the presidency. This news, as the highlight of the second half of this year, will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the international situation and the cryptocurrency market.
In this article, we will delve into the possible impact of Trump’s victory on the crypto industry, including the overall background and market reaction to Trump’s re-election as president, present the Meme coins related to him and their short-term fluctuations, review his previous campaign promises, and predict the impact of possible future policy measures on the crypto market.
Trump's return to office leads to a sharp short-term market reaction.
In the early hours of November 6, U.S. local time, Republican candidate Donald Trump was basically confirmed to be elected as the new U.S. president. (Further reading: Why is it said to be 'basically confirmed'? Please see the previous summary by Odaily Planet Daily on the electoral mechanism (Must-reads before the U.S. election: All you need to know about the transitions).) In the voting, the Republican Party successfully secured several key swing states, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and as of the time of this report, has obtained a total of 277 electoral votes, approximately 51.94% of the public vote, winning against opponent Kamala Harris and successfully being elected as President of the United States.
In fact, from the moment Trump secured key swing states, it was already clear that he would become the President of the United States. However, from the counting of votes starting on November 5, to Trump's clear advantage, and then the release of the vote counts from swing states, several hours elapsed during which Bitcoin's performance was frenzied: on the evening of November 5 in Beijing time, which is when polling stations opened on November 5 in the U.S., Bitcoin's price was around $68,000; by the morning of November 6 in Beijing time, it surged past $70,000, and by noon it broke through $75,000 to achieve a new high, later fluctuating above $74,000.
Bitcoin's performance today. Source: Coingecko
Ethereum's performance is equally encouraging, soaring from around $2,400 before election day to over $2,600 briefly, later fluctuating above $2,500. At the same time, Solana's 24-hour increase reached 15%, rising to around $185, while the Meme coin Doge, which is closely related to Trump's staunch supporter Musk, saw an intra-day increase of around 25%, with a 7-day increase also reaching 15%, standing out among high market capitalization coins. It can be seen that the market has high expectations for Trump's election in the U.S. election, and there are also high expectations for favorable policies towards crypto during his term.
Due to the timing of the market, we have not yet observed the impact of Trump's victory on the three major U.S. stock indices. However, stocks related to Trump, such as the Trump Media & Technology Group, also surged significantly in after-hours trading, rising by 10.43% as of the time of this report.
DJT's stock price also surged. Source: Google
Another 'MAGA'
As news of Trump's victory spreads, Meme coins related to him have also experienced significant fluctuations.
MAGA token's 24-hour increase reached 20%, currently quoted at $3.95, the anticipated large address sell-off did not occur, but rather a significant increase appeared;
MAGA token performance, source: Coingecko
TREMP 24-hour increase of 25.2%, currently quoted at $0.3793; in contrast, STRUMP has seen the anticipated sell-off, with a 24-hour decline of over 16%, currently quoted at $0.005369; FIGHT is up 4.7% in 24 hours, while TRUMPCOIN has dropped 3.2% in 24 hours.
In contrast, Harris's Meme performance has already fallen through the floor: HORRIS's 24-hour decline reached 91.6%, and other Meme-related concepts have basically disappeared underwater. It can be seen that the choice of the Meme market is more honest than anyone else: Trump's Meme has some expectations for future recharge, while others choose to take profits, and Harris's Meme expectations have completely disappeared.
However, it must be said that the current upward trend may lead to a short-term pullback, as previous whale addresses may choose to sell after the victory, especially after the victory news is fully digested by the market the next day in the U.S. Meanwhile, the current decline of some Memes does not represent a long-term low, because the concept of Meme will continue and fluctuate with each of Trump's crypto-related policies after his election as president, which brings us to our next question: What policies will he implement?
Trump's campaign promise: Is Gary Gensler really going to resign this time?
Trump's victory has far-reaching implications for U.S. policy direction, economic development, and the crypto market. His attitude towards cryptocurrencies has changed significantly in his speeches and public statements over the past few years, from criticizing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to showing some interest in blockchain technology, and finally to accepting cryptocurrency donations, being enthusiastic about the crypto cause, and speaking at Bitcoin conferences. This shift makes it hard to gauge his stance. Arthur Hayes believes that 'catering to the young, politically active, and wealthy crypto community might help Trump win the election... Trump is a shrewd politician. He will say anything to anyone wanting to be re-elected. Once in office, anything related to cryptocurrency will become a distant memory.'
In an earlier article published by Odaily Planet Daily (Guess how many of Trump's past campaign promises were fulfilled?), we summarized that Trump successfully complied with about 23% of his commitments during his previous presidential term, made concessions and partially fulfilled 22% of his commitments, but broke about 53% of his commitments. That is to say, the crypto-related goals that do not occupy a major part of Trump's political agenda may really be broken or thrown in the trash.
Regardless of the final outcome, Trump has indeed made several commitments beneficial to the promotion of the crypto industry as a candidate more pro-cryptocurrency than Harris.
Promises to end the regulatory hostility towards the crypto industry.
Promises to protect the rights to mint Bitcoin and the rights of American citizens to self-custody digital assets;
Promises to release Ross Ulbricht, who was convicted for creating the dark web market 'Silk Road';
Promises to keep Senator Elizabeth Warren (who proposed strict regulation bills for the crypto industry) and 'her henchmen' away from Bitcoin holders;
Promises to replace Gary Gensler (Odaily summarizes potential future SEC chairs, see (Who will be the new SEC chair after Gary Gensler?));
Promises to establish a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin, not selling the held Bitcoin;
Promises to establish a Bitcoin advisory committee;
Does not support CBDC.
At the same time, Odaily Planet Daily summarizes all the potential crypto bills that could pass after Trump's inauguration, see (What crypto bills might be passed if Trump is elected president?)
The promises above do not have a comprehensive record, but are made by Trump in different venues: at campaign rallies, in private meetings with industry leaders, or in speeches at Bitcoin conferences. The official policy drafts only include a small portion about protecting the rights of American citizens. Among these commitments, several could immediately benefit and gain support in the Crypto industry, so the core question returns to what we initially said: Yes, now you are president, can you fulfill the promises you made before? The answer to this question may determine the industry's trajectory for this year and at least the next four years.
Further reading: (Besides the presidency, this seat's election will also deeply affect the future of Crypto)
Related topic: The US election struggle, the 'life and death' moment for the crypto industry
