The 2024 US presidential election continues to count votes, with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by 178 votes to 99 votes, and the gap between the two is beginning to widen. On Wednesday (November 6) in the Asian market, the US dollar surged again after the early trading, hitting 104.77, Bitcoin broke through $75,000, and gold rose to $2,747 instead of falling, showing amazing resilience in the "Trump deal".
US election results update: Trump leads Harris by 188 votes, 99 votes
It was approaching 9:30 p.m. in New York, and polling stations in more than 40 states and the District of Columbia had closed, with nine remaining open. According to Bloomberg News' real-time presidential election results tracker, Trump received 177 electoral votes and Harris received 99, with the winner needing 270 electoral votes.
Bloomberg's Washington bureau is closely monitoring 7 key battleground states:
Arizona: Voting has not yet ended
Georgia: 73.6% of votes counted, Trump leads
Pennsylvania: 24.1% of votes counted, Harris leads
Michigan: 11.7% of votes counted, Harris leads
North Carolina: Trump leads with 52.3% of votes counted
Wisconsin: Only 7.5% of votes counted, Harris leads
In the coming hours, the vote counts from another 9 states will be awaited, including another swing state, Nevada.
Former Trump advisor Clete Willems stated that the results from the states are currently not very surprising, but traders are digging into county comparisons, finding that Trump is performing better in some areas than in 2020, which fuels the so-called Trump trade.
Pennsylvania's Shapiro urges patience from those awaiting the election results in the state, as accurate counting takes time in a closely contested election.
Commonwealth Secretary-General Al Schmidt stated: 'Although we cannot count the total number of people voting in person tonight, reports from on-the-ground election staff indicate that polling places are very busy, even in a presidential election year.'
The 'Trump trade' intensifies global market volatility
As more polls close and the Trump trade increases, the bond market remains in a delicate balance, with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rising nearly 12 basis points to over 4.38%. Today's auction price for the 10-year Treasury is 4.347%, close to recent yield peaks, which seems to provide some comfort. However, as BMO Capital Markets points out, for the 10-year Treasury, 'initial support is the top of the Bollinger Band at 4.378%, followed by 4.50%.'
Since the end of May, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has not reached 4.50%. This indicates that investors are now more concerned about the potential impact of a Trump sweep in the US elections on the US fiscal situation, with the risk premium on the 10-year Treasury bond (according to the New York Fed model) having increased by about 20 basis points since then.
The dollar, after surging in the early session, again sharply rises to 104.48, while Bitcoin breaks above $72,000. S&P 500 futures are up 1.01%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.76%.
The 'Trump trade' surges across the board, with Bitcoin soaring and Trump Media Technology Group's US stock futures rising more than 18%, CleanSpark and MicroStrategy up over 6%, and Tesla nearly 5% higher.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index rises to its highest level since July, as traders continue to focus on voting results in key battleground states. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.9% to an intraday high of 1265.89, the highest level since July 3. Both the euro and the yen/USD have fallen more than 1%.
As the US election counts votes, the euro is under pressure. If American voters hand the keys to the White House to Trump, the European economy could suffer from rising borrowing costs, increased defense demand, and tariffs. If Trump follows through on tax cut policies, US economic growth could accelerate, potentially increasing demand for European exports, but the impact may not be significant. The broader mid-term challenge facing the EU is positioning itself for growth in an increasingly polarized ideological world.
