Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
The U.S. elections will officially begin later today, but aside from the highly anticipated presidential election, a particular important seat race is also drawing attention from the cryptocurrency industry. Overseas lobbying organizations have even spent tens of millions of dollars in hopes that a 'challenger' can bring down the 'crypto enemy' in a high position.
This important election is for Ohio's Senate seat, with the candidates being incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Republican candidate Bernie Moreno.
The reason this seat race has garnered significant attention from the industry is that Brown currently holds the position of chair of the Senate Banking Committee, which is one of the most influential committees in the Senate. This committee has jurisdiction over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)... It goes without saying that those familiar with the industry know how these two agencies influence cryptocurrency regulation.
As the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Brown has significant influence in deciding which bills need to be submitted for committee review or for parliamentary votes. However, Brown himself is an extreme opponent of cryptocurrency, causing a large number of cryptocurrency-related bills to be shelved in the committee, which the industry generally believes seriously hinders the positive development of the industry.
Sherrod Brown
On the contrary, 'challenger' Moreno has long made cryptocurrency the core of his campaign, even vowing to fight against those who seek to 'destroy cryptocurrency.'
Bernie Moreno
CoinDesk reported in September that the cryptocurrency industry political action committee (PAC) has invested a substantial amount of money in the Ohio Senate race to support Moreno against Brown. As of September 27, 2024, the PAC funded by Coinbase and Ripple Labs has invested $40 million to support Moreno, and this massive spending has allowed Moreno to quickly catch up to Brown in the polls, with some polls even showing Moreno in the lead.
RealClearPolitics polling data shows that Moreno (48%) is slightly ahead of Brown (46.3%) by about 1.7 percentage points, with the race still being quite competitive.
Ron Hammond, Director of Government Relations at the Blockchain Association, stated in an interview with The Block that the Ohio Senate race could be the most important congressional seat race for the cryptocurrency industry.
Considering Ohio's status as a swing state, if Moreno successfully defeats Brown, it would significantly increase the likelihood of Republicans holding a majority in the Senate. At that time, North Carolina Republican Senator Tim Scott is likely to succeed Brown as chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and Scott has recently expressed support for cryptocurrency and attended the Nashville Bitcoin conference.
Conversely, if Moreno fails to defeat Brown and the Democrats hold a majority in the Senate, then Brown is likely to remain in office, thereby continuing his current stance and influence over cryptocurrency.
Of course, there are also two low-probability scenarios. The first is that the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate while Moreno loses. In this case, Scott could still potentially chair the Senate Banking Committee due to the Republican seat advantage; the second scenario is that the Democrats hold a majority in the Senate while Moreno wins, at which point Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is likely to succeed Brown, and Warren is also opposed to cryptocurrency.
In summary, Moreno's challenge to Brown is likely to determine the outcome of the future chair of the Senate Banking Committee. As long as Moreno secures Ohio, the Republicans have a greater chance of gaining an advantage in the Senate, thus ending Brown's oppressive regulatory stance on cryptocurrency.