Compiled by: Golden Finance.
The 2024 presidential election is tightly contested, with Trump and Harris having similar popularity. On November 5, Eastern Time, the U.S. will hold a new presidential election voting day. As the two compete for victory, Golden Finance has compiled the relevant content regarding the U.S. election as follows.
Stand with Harris.
Harris's final message to supporters: Enjoy the election.
Less than a day before the election, U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Harris held rallies across Pennsylvania to showcase a vision of unity. "What you need to do today, and what you have been doing, is to let us enjoy it," Harris told her supporters. At one of the events, Harris again avoided saying her Republican opponent's name, referring to Trump as 'another person'. Harris said, "I am very different from another person, and everyone knows this is why you are here to help us win votes." Harris said the division in contemporary American politics makes people feel lonely. "Therefore, I have always been thinking about our campaign in the next 24 hours, when we vote, when we campaign, let us consciously build community, build alliances, and remind people that we all have more in common than what separates us."
A user in Polymarket bet $5 million on Harris's victory.
Cointelegraph posted on X platform that a user bet $5 million today on Harris's victory.
There are less than 7 hours until the betting deadline. The probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is currently reported at 58.8%, while the probability of Harris winning is reported at 41.3%.
The correlation record between the S&P 500 index's performance and election results suggests that Harris may win the election.
Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 index (SPX) rises in the three months leading up to the election, the incumbent party's candidate has an 80% chance of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 index falls in the three months leading up to the election, the other party's candidate has an 89% chance of winning.
It is reported that this has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators suggest that if the S&P 500 index does not erase an 8% gain since August in one day, Harris is likely to win.
Meanwhile, market experts interviewed pointed out that the current market and political landscape is very unique, making this election more likely to be an exception to the historical experience mentioned above.
Zhu Su: The market is flocking to Harris's concept of 'beta investment' targets.
Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu Su posted on social media that the market is flocking to Harris's concept of 'beta investment' targets. Among them, the Harris concept meme token KAMA broke through $0.015, rising over 40% in 24 hours.
Stand with Trump.
Trump: We will make America prosperous again.
Former U.S. President Trump stated that our current economy is the worst since the Great Depression of 1929, and it will get worse. We will make America prosperous again, and most importantly, we will make it affordable for people to buy in America. (Current) prices are simply too high.
Plans to significantly reduce the tax burden on workers and small businesses. We will not tax tips, overtime pay, or Social Security benefits. To rapidly reduce inflation, I will end Harris's energy war against America and lower energy prices. We will cut energy prices in half.
Musk's 'Million Dollar Giveaway' campaign has been authorized to continue.
Ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, Musk's daily million-dollar giveaway campaign has avoided legal challenges from the Philadelphia District Attorney, as a Pennsylvania judge refused to block the activity. Pennsylvania is a key swing state. The Pennsylvania judge dismissed the district attorney's request to halt the contest, which he claimed was an illegal lottery. Musk's lawyers stated at the hearing that the winners of the contest are not randomly selected. The selection of winners is based on whether they are 'suitable' to become public spokespersons for Musk's political action committee, usually based on their personal stories. Shortly after, the judge ruled without any argument.
Musk's X platform mentioned 'PNut' again.
Golden Finance reports that Musk mentioned 'PNut' again while retweeting.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaigns for Trump.
Former U.S. independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posted on social media expressing support for Trump. No matter which state you live in, don’t vote for me. Let’s send President Trump back to the White House and me to Washington, so we can make America healthy again, end the endless wars, and protect our civil liberties.
U.S. podcast Joe Rogan: Support for former U.S. President Trump.
U.S. podcast Joe Rogan stated on the social media platform 'X' that he supports former U.S. President Trump.
If Trump wins the election, South Korea will consider importing more energy from the U.S.
According to informed sources, if Donald Trump wins the election and increases pressure on trade partners, South Korea is considering a plan to increase its energy imports from the U.S. Officials in Seoul have spent months preparing for either Trump or Harris to assume the presidency, and if Trump wins, this trade-dependent nation is expected to face greater risks. A closely watched key area is South Korea's growing trade surplus with the U.S. Informed sources say that if trade imbalances become a sticking point during Trump's presidency, the South Korean government may urge businesses to increase purchases of U.S. oil and gas.
The largest address betting on Trump's victory has increased its position by $3.1 million.
The largest address betting on Trump's victory 0xd23...f29 has continued to increase its position by $3.1 million for Trump's victory in the past 6 hours.
He has now invested $17.2 million USDC in Trump's victory, which could earn him $10.94 million if Trump wins.
However, if Trump does not win the election, all investments will be lost (unless he has other hedging operations).
J.P. Morgan estimates the probability of Trump winning the U.S. election to be between 60% and 70%.
According to Cointelegraph, J.P. Morgan estimates the probability of Trump winning the U.S. election to be between 60% and 70%, predicting that if the Republican Party achieves a 'red sweep', the dollar will rise by 5%; while if the U.S. Congress is divided between the two parties, the dollar will rise by 1.5% to 2%.
A user on Polymarket sold $3.15 million worth of positions betting on Trump's victory in the past hour.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, Polymarket whale user 'larpas' is selling all of his positions betting on Trump's victory in the U.S. election. In the past hour, he has sold positions worth about $3.15 million. Interestingly, just 20 hours ago, this whale withdrew $500,000 USDC from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory. Yet just 20 hours later, he regrets this and is selling all his positions.
The largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket increased its position by $2.35 million in the past 6 hours.
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, after the address 0x9ad...883 bought $5 million on Harris's win, becoming the largest address betting on Harris's victory on Polymarket, the largest address betting on Trump's win increased its position by $2.35 million in the past 6 hours. Now: the address 0xd23...f29 bought $14.13 million on Trump's win, winning $8.78 million; the address 0x9ad...883 bought $5.02 million on Harris's win, winning $5.85 million.
Impact of the U.S. election on cryptocurrencies and the economy.
Perspective: History shows that regardless of who wins, Bitcoin may rise after the U.S. elections.
According to CoinDesk analysis, Bitcoin, which was born in 2009, is approaching its fourth U.S. election. Data from the previous three elections shows that Bitcoin has consistently maintained an upward momentum after U.S. elections, never dropping back to the election day's price. If this trend reoccurs, Bitcoin's price should peak about a year later.
The U.S. election in 2012 also took place on November 5, when the price of Bitcoin hovered around $11. In November 2013, the price of Bitcoin peaked, rising nearly 12,000%, crossing $1,100.
In the first week of the U.S. election in November 2016, the price of Bitcoin was about $700. By December 2017, the price of Bitcoin peaked at around $18,000, a rise of about 3,600%.
The U.S. election in November 2020 coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic saw Bitcoin rise by 478% in the following year, reaching a market peak of around $69,000. In March 2024, Bitcoin set a new high above $73,000.
After each Bitcoin halving event, although its price is much higher than four years ago, the increase has narrowed, and the return rate is gradually decreasing. The percentage drop between the first and second numbers is 70%, while the drop between the second and third numbers is 87%. If we continue this trend and assume this time's reduction is about 90%, it would mean an increase of about 47.8% after the election. This would put Bitcoin at approximately $103,500 in Q4 2025.
Bernstein raises Bitcoin price expectations; Trump’s victory could push it to $80,000 to $90,000.
According to The Block, investment research firm Bernstein's latest report predicts that regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election, the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Analysts believe that Trump is viewed as a pro-cryptocurrency candidate, while Harris may continue the Democratic Party's tough stance from the past four years.
Bernstein analysts expect that if Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin could surpass its historical high, reaching $80,000 to $90,000 before inauguration day (January 20, 2025). In contrast, a Harris victory could lead to Bitcoin dropping to $50,000 during the same period, higher than the previously predicted range of $30,000 to $40,000.
The report pointed out that the main drivers of Bitcoin include lax U.S. fiscal discipline, record debt levels, and monetary expansion, which have pushed up demand for hard assets. The success of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has further accelerated this trend.
Perspective: Bitcoin historically rises in the month before and after U.S. presidential elections.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, historically, the price of Bitcoin has risen in the month before and after each U.S. presidential election. Since October 5, 2024, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 10.99%.
QCP Capital: This week's U.S. election results will determine the direction of the crypto market, and we remain cautious.
Singapore's crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated: "As Polymarket's odds approach actual polling results, the competition between Harris and Trump has intensified. Although Polymarket's odds still favor Trump at 55%, this is a significant drop from 66% a week ago. Small price fluctuations over the weekend, along with the reduction of leveraged perpetual contracts from $30 billion to $26 billion on various exchanges, indicate that the market remains cautious.
So, does this indicate a period of calm before breaking out of months-long price ranges and heading towards historical highs? The options market seems to think so, as we have seen an increase in high positions since last Friday, with a large number of options bought with a strike price of $75,000 expiring at the end of November. Meanwhile, with actual volatility holding at 40% and implied volatility climbing to over 87% on Friday, option positions related to the election date are also increasing.
We expect that the spot price will fluctuate within this range until the election results become clearer this week. If Trump wins, it is likely to trigger an immediate price rise, while a Harris victory may lead to a price drop.
J.P. Morgan: If the U.S. election results in a political deadlock, U.S. stocks will be buoyed.
J.P. Morgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas expects that once the results of the U.S. presidential election are out, U.S. stocks will rise in the latter part of 2024, especially in the case of a political deadlock. "In any deadlock scenario, we believe that as uncertainty diminishes, volatility decreases, and hedging strategies are unwound, stock prices will rise. Investors will refocus on the Federal Reserve as the economy and corporate profitability remain resilient," he wrote in a report to clients on Monday.
J.P. Morgan: If Trump wins, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December.
J.P. Morgan analyst David Kelly stated that if Trump wins the U.S. election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will drive up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. He stated, "If Trump wins the election, he will likely adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which could provoke trade wars, increase the deficit, and raise interest rates." Kelly also indicated that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its decision on Friday, even if the election occurs beforehand.
Matrixport: Bitcoin is in the neutral zone before the U.S. election, and selling volatility shows potential.
Matrixport released charts showing that as the U.S. presidential election approaches, market traders' anxiety levels have risen, but Bitcoin remains in the neutral zone. Currently, Bitcoin's 21-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 56%, far below the overbought threshold of 70%, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold.
Since a neutral RSI usually indicates that traders are less impacted by market fluctuations, a neutral RSI means that Bitcoin's risk premium (including high implied volatility) may decrease after the election. This contrasts sharply with the bear market decline when the RSI reached 80% in March, while in July and August, a significant rebound occurred when the RSI was only 25%. Given this situation, selling volatility this week seems to be a particularly appealing strategy.
Morgan Stanley strategist: 'Fear of Missing Out' is likely to drive the S&P 500 index to 6,100 points by the end of the year.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson believes that the S&P 500 index may continue to rise before the end of the year, and a 5% increase from now is not impossible, as investors may breathe a sigh of relief after the U.S. presidential election, leading to 'Fear of Missing Out' (FOMO) psychology by year-end. However, this strategist warns that without clear catalysts, such enthusiasm may fade with the arrival of 2025. "I think we might see 6,000 points if there isn't too much panic and people feel good about the situation," Wilson said. This means the index would rise nearly 5% from last Friday's close of around 5,728 points. Wilson later added that the S&P 500 index might reach a peak of 6,100 points, but due to high valuations and the difficulty of further expanding price-to-earnings ratios as we approach 2025, the index will not breach this level this year 'under any circumstances'.
Morgan Stanley: The market should remain cautious in the uncertain environment of the U.S. election.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael D Zezas stated that investors' main goal during the U.S. election should be to establish situational awareness and avoid overconfidence regarding the election results and market impacts. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations. He stated that the rising implied probability of a Republican victory in the market has led some to expect a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes this scenario is possible, but not the most likely outcome. Both candidates do not seem to be clear front-runners for winning the Electoral College, so a lengthy vote count like in 2020 may reoccur. Given the poor historical performance of early voting data, Morgan Stanley does not place much importance on this data and advises against over-interpreting short-term market movements. The firm stated that the market's short-term reactions to elections are often quite noisy and may not predict mid-term trends.
Analysts: Trump's victory may reduce the likelihood of Fed rate cuts.
Sonja Marten, an analyst at the German Central Cooperative Bank, stated in a report that Trump's victory may lower the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, thus benefiting the dollar. She said that Trump's tariffs and immigration plans are expected to provoke inflation, while tax cuts will lead to short-term economic prosperity. "All of this will significantly reduce the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. In this scenario, the dollar is expected to respond positively and significantly."
Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If Harris wins, the dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week.
Due to potential position adjustments ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, the New Zealand dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar in early trading. The global economic and market research team at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) stated in a report that due to the election, the dollar is "likely to trade widely this week." The team stated that if Trump leads in early counts from in-person voting, the dollar may rise.
However, Democratic voters are more inclined to vote by mail or vote early in person, which takes longer to count, the team said. Therefore, the team stated that Trump's lead may narrow or disappear later this week. The team added that if Harris wins, the dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week.
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