《The US Election Brings Uncertainty to Cryptocurrency Prices》

Anonymous cryptocurrency trader Crypto Rand pointed out that Kamala Harris's unclear stance on cryptocurrencies means that "uncertainty may be worse than opposition," and her policies, while possibly facilitating the industry, are unlikely to align with Trump's promises.

Although Trump hinted at firing the chairman of the SEC on his first day, his plans to encourage Bitcoin adoption remain unclear, and there is controversy over the pace of changes in government agencies and the Treasury. Therefore, regardless of the election outcome, investors believe that the momentum for pushing Bitcoin prices to new highs is limited.

The main reason for the differences in expectations for this US presidential election is people's focus on "digital assets" (including central bank digital currencies and tokenized assets, which are largely unrelated to Bitcoin), with the use of blockchain technology to digitize real assets having minimal impact on the overall demand for Bitcoin.

Analyzing the total open interest in Bitcoin futures is crucial to determine whether professional traders are reducing their exposure, and a sharp decline in this indicator signals unease about industry exposure.

Bloomberg mentioned that Trump's embrace of the digital asset industry during his campaign boosted cryptocurrency sentiment, but his broader priorities may temper this optimism.

Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty, stated that stock sell-offs, a rising dollar, and increasing yields indicate tightening financial conditions, which could lead to poor cryptocurrency performance in extreme scenarios, with the speed of implementing tightening policies being more critical. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets, noted that a Trump victory could lead to higher yields, negatively impacting risk assets, but the expectation of softer regulation from the Trump administration on the cryptocurrency industry is a more significant factor. #美国大选后涨或跌？