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On November 5, the U.S. will hold the new presidential election voting day, with over 75 million Americans already voting early. Meanwhile, the competition between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates Harris and Trump remains fierce. So, when will we know who won the U.S. election?
'Battleground state' election arrangements
The final result of this U.S. election is expected to be determined by the 7 'battleground states'—Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
This is because the U.S. presidential election implements an indirect electoral system known as the 'Electoral College.' The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and a candidate must obtain a majority of more than half (at least 270 electoral votes) to win. Electors in each state typically award their electoral votes to the candidate who receives the highest percentage of votes in that state.
The 7 'battleground states' have a relatively large number of electoral votes. Additionally, polling has shown a fierce competition between Harris and Trump in the 7 'battleground states', making it difficult to predict who will prevail.
So, how is the election arrangement in the 'battleground states'? When does voting end? When does counting start? When will the results be announced?
Georgia
Electoral votes: 16
Voting end time: Early voting ended on November 1, and voting on election day will end at 7:00 PM Eastern Time on November 5.
Ballot processing time: Started on October 21.
Result announcement time: It is expected that most of the ballot flow in the state will be announced on election night. In 2020, U.S. media announced the preliminary results of the state on election night, which were later recounted manually due to a request from Trump's campaign team. At that time, the confirmation of Biden's victory in the state came more than two weeks after election day.
North Carolina
Electoral votes: 16
Voting end time: Early voting ended on November 2, and voting on election day will end at 7:30 PM Eastern Time on November 5.
Ballot processing time: Started on October 1.
Result announcement time: It is expected that most of the ballot flow in the state will be announced on election night, but provisional ballots will be counted later. Due to the new (voter ID law) and Hurricane 'Helen', the proportion of provisional ballots may be larger than in previous years. In 2020, U.S. media announced Trump's victory in the state ten days after election day.
Pennsylvania
Electoral votes: 19
Voting end time: Early voting ended in most areas on October 29, and election day voting will end at 8:00 PM Eastern Time on November 5.
Ballot processing time: Will start on November 5.
Result announcement time: Varies by county. Given that Pennsylvania started processing ballots only on November 5, results are expected to take several days to be announced. In 2020, U.S. media announced Biden's victory in the state three days after election day.
Michigan
Electoral votes: 15
Voting end time: Early voting ended on November 3, and election day voting will end at 8:00 PM and 9:00 PM Eastern Time on November 5 (Michigan spans two time zones).
Ballot processing time: Started on October 28.
Result announcement time: Varies by county. The state usually announces nearly all ballot flow around noon on the day after the election. In 2020, U.S. media announced Biden's victory in the state on the afternoon of the day after the election.
Arizona
Electoral votes: 11
Voting end time: Early voting ended on November 1, and election day voting will end at 9:00 PM Eastern Time on November 5.
Ballot processing time: Starts after the ballots are cast.
Result announcement time: The state usually announces the results of early voting and mail-in ballots that arrive early first. In 2020, U.S. media announced Biden's victory in the state in the early hours of the day after the election.
Wisconsin
Electoral votes: 10
Voting end time: Early voting ended on November 3, and election day voting will end at 8:00 PM and 9:00 PM Eastern Time on November 5 (Michigan spans two time zones).
Ballot processing time: Will start on election day.
Result announcement time: Varies by county. The state usually announces most of the ballot flow on election night. In 2020, U.S. media announced Biden's victory in the state on the afternoon of the day after the election.
Nevada
Electoral votes: 6
Voting end time: Early voting ended on November 1, and election day voting will end at 10:00 PM Eastern Time on November 5.
Ballot processing time: Started on October 21.
Result announcement time: Voting results will not be announced until all polling places in the state are closed, and the counting process is expected to last several days. In 2020, U.S. media announced Biden's victory in the state three days after election day.
Public opinion points out that the reason the election result announcement times in the 7 'battleground states' differ is that each state has different counting procedures and rules. In addition, the 7 'battleground states' are geographically widespread, spanning multiple time zones.
Similar election situation
To know when the results of this year's U.S. presidential election will be announced, one can refer to the last election process four years ago.
Voting for the 2020 U.S. election ended on the night of November 3, and the situation at that time was quite similar to now. According to preliminary counts and estimates from major U.S. media, Democratic candidate Biden and Republican candidate Trump were in a very close race. After a night of waiting, as of 6 AM Eastern Time on November 4, neither candidate had secured the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
At that time, the counting process was tumultuous. Meanwhile, Trump's team and supporters raised questions about the legality of some ballots and the counting process, claiming that there was widespread fraud in the election. Public opinion suggests that similar claims may be made by Trump's camp this year.
That year, after several days of intense counting, U.S. media announced preliminary calculated results on November 7—Biden received over 270 electoral votes. At that time, the Associated Press announced that Biden won Nevada and Pennsylvania.
However, it should be noted that the U.S. election four years ago was affected by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a surge in mail-in ballots and early voting, increasing the difficulty and time required for counting.
In December 2020, electors across the country voted to officially elect Biden as the next president of the United States. In January 2021, Biden took the oath of office.
This year's election schedule
According to the schedule released by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, if the election process goes smoothly, this year's Electoral College meeting will be held on December 17. At that time, electors will meet in all 50 states and the District of Columbia to vote for president and vice president, and then the ballots will be submitted to the National Archives and Records Administration and the President of the Senate.
On January 6, 2025, before the joint session of Congress in the United States, the electoral votes will be read and counted.
January 20, 2025, the new president and vice president will take the oath of office.
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