Impact of Elections in the U.S. on Bitcoin: Political Analysis, News, Technicals, and Forecast
The presidential elections in the United States, scheduled for November 5, 2024, have generated a notable increase in the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, especially for Bitcoin ($BTC). Below, we analyze the political aspects of these elections and their impact on $BTC, based on the latest news, technical analysis, and a forecast for the next two months.
1. Political Aspects: The U.S. Elections and Their Influence on the Crypto Market
The political context in the United States has a significant impact on the global market, including cryptocurrencies. In this election, Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, faces Donald Trump, representing the Republican Party, two candidates with opposing views on regulation and adoption of digital assets.
Kamala Harris has shown a favorable stance towards strict regulation in the financial and cryptocurrency sectors. The Biden-Harris administration has supported regulatory frameworks that enhance security for investors and reduce risks associated with money laundering. A Harris victory could lead to increased regulation, which could limit access and increase restrictions for institutional and retail investors.
Donald Trump has been an outspoken critic of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, favoring the dollar as the sole legal tender. However, during his previous term, his free market approach and reduction of regulations could result in a less restrictive environment for cryptocurrencies, favoring speculative activity in the short term.
2. Analysis of Recent News on Bitcoin
In recent weeks, Bitcoin has seen an increase in value, driven by significant events and growing institutional interest. Among the most notable news:
Institutional Investments: Firms like BlackRock have increased their Bitcoin purchases, boosting their exposure in the crypto market and reflecting greater institutional interest. These acquisitions, especially when coming from prestigious financial institutions, can act as a bullish catalyst, increasing confidence in the asset.
Popularity of Bitcoin ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs have recorded significant capital inflows, reaching 22 billion dollars. This phenomenon shows greater participation from retail investors in the market, which could add upward pressure on $BTC prices.
Positive Technical Signals: Indicators such as hash ribbons have issued buy signals in the $BTC market, suggesting a possible bullish momentum in the short term.
3. Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
The technical analysis of Bitcoin in recent weeks has been favorable, although there are certain overbought factors that could impact its short-term trend:
Bullish Technical Indicators: On the daily frame, the price of Bitcoin has remained above its moving averages, a sign of strength in the trend. Simple and exponential moving averages suggest continuity in the short-term bullish trend. Additionally, buying volumes have increased, supporting this positive movement.
Risk of Correction Due to Overbought Conditions: However, some oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in 4 and 6-hour intervals indicate overbought conditions. This suggests that the price could experience a correction in the coming days, especially if investors seek to consolidate profits after the elections.
4. Forecast for the Next 2 Months
Given the current market conditions and political events in the U.S., Bitcoin could present considerable volatility. Below, a forecast based on the above factors:
Moderate Bullish Trend: If current indicators maintain their trend and the regulatory environment does not tighten immediately after the elections, it is likely that $BTC will maintain a moderate bullish trend towards the end of the year. A key resistance to watch is at 75,000 USD, which could be the next price target in the event of a bullish push.
Possible Short-Term Correction: The overbought conditions shown in some oscillators suggest that the price of Bitcoin may experience a correction in the short term, with key support at 65,000 USD. This could happen as a response to profit-taking by investors following the election period.
Increase in Volatility: Post-election political decisions, especially those related to cryptocurrency regulation and inflation management, could increase market volatility. Depending on the fiscal and monetary policies implemented, the value of $BTC could fluctuate more than expected in November and December.
Conclusion.
The political and economic uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections may play a decisive role in Bitcoin's volatility in the coming months. While a market-friendly administration could boost prices in the short term, the implementation of stricter regulations could act as a barrier. As the market responds to these changes, investors will need to assess the evolution of political and technical factors to adjust their strategies.
