This week, there will be three major macro events taking place:
On November 5 (Tuesday), the U.S. election will take place, and results are expected to be available the next day;
In the early hours of November 8, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will conclude;
From November 4 to November 8, there will be a significant domestic policy meeting;
Among the three major events above, only the certainty of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates is relatively strong, as the October non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000, significantly lower than the expected 100,000. It is already a foregone conclusion that the U.S. will lower interest rates again in November. According to the latest data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points has soared to 99.7%.
The U.S. election is divided into two phases: the first phase is early voting, and this part of the data has basically been counted, accounting for about 30% of the total; the second phase is on-site voting on election day, accounting for about 70%.
Currently, the probability still leans towards Trump, but compared to a week ago, his advantage has significantly weakened, thus increasing the suspense. As a result, the biggest concept stock in the U.S. market, DJT (Trump Media & Technology), has plummeted over 40cm...
Previously, Trump and Harris had a 50-50 split in polls in swing states, but the market has a default assumption that about 2% of voters secretly support Trump but don't dare to say it, so a 50-50 split means Trump is likely to win.
However, based on early voting data, Harris has a considerable advantage, suggesting an unexpected outcome. For example, in an exam with a total score of 100, where Chinese is worth 30 points and Math is worth 70 points; the market previously believed that Harris would score 5 points higher than Trump in Chinese, but Trump would score 7 points higher than Harris in Math; however, the current reality is that Harris is 8 points higher in Chinese, and Trump needs to score 9 points higher in Math to win, which is clearly difficult.
Considering the current information, purely from a statistical perspective, it seems that Trump has a slight advantage.
I have seen some analyses; one view is that in the past two elections, the media overwhelmingly opposed Trump, which created the 2% hidden supporters under public pressure; but this time, due to Musk, supporters can boldly voice their opinions on Twitter and gain an advantage, thus balancing the public opinion on both sides, and that 2% of hidden supporters may no longer exist.
Whether Harris or Trump wins, it will not be friendly towards China; the only difference is the approach.
If Trump is elected, tariffs will be significantly increased, with Goldman Sachs analyzing that Trump will impose an average 20% tariff on Chinese goods; if Harris is elected, it is very likely that he will continue Biden's strategy, which is 'small yard, high wall', rallying allies to comprehensively blockade China's technology industry. The tariffs imposed during Trump's first term will continue to be collected.
If Trump wins, it will mean 'short-term bearish, long-term bullish' for us, with the biggest impact being the first wave, but Trump is indeed somewhat unpredictable, and just because the first wave has passed doesn't mean the subsequent waves will be calm;
If Harris is elected, it would mean 'short-term bullish, long-term bearish', there won't be a sudden increase in tariff pressure, but various annoying tactics will emerge endlessly, completely exhausting and suppressing us.
As for the significant domestic policy meeting, it was deliberately postponed, clearly waiting for the U.S. election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting to conclude before presenting specific plans and measures.