With the November events approaching, many are feeling anxious about the market. I prefer the traditional analytical approach, especially under the influence of macroeconomic factors.

I use the MVRV indicator to estimate the current value of Bitcoin. MVRV is currently around 2, which means that the market value is twice the estimated value on the blockchain.

I pay attention to the trend analysis. I use a 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV and a 4-year moving average that reflects the Bitcoin cycle. MVRV is currently above this average, and recently broke above the 365-day moving average.

This indicates the continuation of the upward trend. Typically, the cycle peak is reached at an MVRV between 3 and 3.6. A 43-77% increase is required to reach this level, which means a target of $95k-$120k for Bitcoin.

Despite the significant growth over the past year, Bitcoin has only just returned to the average level on the MVRV indicator. The upward momentum is preserved.