If Trump loses the election, will Bitcoin fall to $50,000?
Let me first state the conclusion: I think it is highly unlikely.
If Trump is not elected, it may cause a short-term correction in Bitcoin, but it will have little impact on the long-term trend.
Because the rise and fall of the market is more of a game of emotions and funds, rather than being determined solely by the election results.
The key still lies in the economy and monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is now taking a medium- to long-term easing approach.
So even if Trump is not elected, the market's monetary easing trend will still be there, which is good news for Bitcoin.
Who is leading now?
On some prediction platforms, Trump is temporarily ahead, but poll results show Harris is ahead.
From the prediction platform data:
On prediction platform Polymarket, Harris’ odds have risen to about 44.8 percent from 33 percent on Oct. 30.
Trump's odds dropped to a two-week low of 55.3%, indicating that people's confidence in Trump's victory has weakened.
The situation is similar on Kalshi, an American betting platform.
Harris' odds rose to 49%, just 2 percentage points lower than Trump.
This may be because some traders are investing in Harris to hedge their bets against Trump.
Many people are paying attention to the election because they believe that Trump's election is good for cryptocurrencies, while Harris's election may cause Bitcoin to fall.
The recent market decline is actually a reaction to investors' uncertainty about the election results.
According to US poll data:
Harris is now slightly ahead of Trump.
In Iowa specifically, Harris leads 47% to 44%, which is somewhat unexpected because Iowa has historically been a solidly red state.
Not only that, Harris also has a slight lead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump maintains his advantage in Arizona and ties Harris' lead in Pennsylvania.
So judging from the poll data, the election situation is now very tense, and it is really hard to say who will win in the end.
Will Bitcoin Plunge If Harris Is Elected?
I think the probability is that it will fall first and then rise.
If Trump wins this time, Bitcoin may continue to rise in the short term.
But if Harris wins, Bitcoin may pull back, but this does not mean it will fall for a long time.
Because no matter who is elected, US fiscal policy will expand, just with different intensity.
The Federal Reserve is now pursuing a medium- to long-term monetary easing approach, so even if Trump is not elected, the market's monetary easing trend will still be there, which will be conducive to the subsequent price increase of Bitcoin.
In the long run, the election actually has little impact on the market.
The election is just one part of the market trend, not the whole. It is not the only factor that determines the long-term trend of Bitcoin.
The rise and fall of the market is more of a game of emotions and funds, rather than being determined solely by the election results.
Trends in the economy and monetary policy are more important than election results, especially their impact on market liquidity.
Even if Harris is elected, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will not change because of the election.
Even if Trump is elected, many of his promises will not be easy to fulfill. For example, it is not easy for him to fire the chairman of the SEC because he needs sufficient reasons.
It would be even more difficult to prevent the government from selling Bitcoin because the assets belong to different independent departments and are not controlled by the president.
Moreover, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were passed during Democratic administrations, so there is no sign that the Democratic Party will hinder the development of cryptocurrencies.
So in general, even if Harris is elected, the cryptocurrency world will not be hit too hard. The key still depends on the economy and monetary policy.
The next focus will be whether the US economy will go into recession, whether inflation will recur, and whether a black swan event will occur.
