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Next week, you must pay attention to three historic events, each more important than the last.
1. On the 5th of this month, the US elections are coming to a close. If 'Sister Haha' wins, on one hand, we will struggle to ease geopolitical tensions, and on the other hand, the financial war between the two major economies will inevitably intensify. On the surface, everything seems calm, but in reality, there will be undercurrents. If 'Understand King' returns to the stage, then his combination of tax cuts and increased tariffs could reignite inflation, and the Fed's process of interest rate cuts may face abrupt risks of halting. Additionally, with Trump threatening to impose tariffs on the entire world, this will undoubtedly cast a shadow of uncertainty over the future of the global economy.
2. From the 6th to the 7th of this month, the Federal Reserve will have a meeting. The US is now showing no pretense at all. They announced that the number of new non-farm jobs in October is only 12,000. This is not a numbers game but a carefully planned financial game. On the eve of the National Day holiday, we introduced a series of extraordinary policy measures, and the US conveniently announced an exceptionally bright economic data during our National Day holiday, which weakened market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Fed. This move almost dispersed the popularity that our big A had painstakingly gathered. Now that their goal has been achieved, they have inopportunely released this explosive non-farm data, making the market again fully expect interest rate cuts. This tactic of interfering with market expectations using economic data is simply a surprise attack.
3. From the 4th to the 8th of this month, we are about to hold a meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. It seems unrelated to the previous two events, but it is coincidental that the heavyweight meeting we are looking forward to completely overlaps with the election results and the Fed's interest rate cut decision. If nothing unexpected happens, we may have already prepared multiple response plans, just waiting for the results from over there so we can immediately respond accordingly. Once the dust settles, we will sound the starting gun for fully committing to economic development.
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