Let me explain why I want to do this thankless task. In the second quarter, when Buffett reduced his holdings, extreme market conditions appeared because the market speculated that Buffett predicted the possibility of an economic recession. However, in reality, a quarter has passed, and not only has the U.S. not faced an economic recession, but U.S. stocks have performed even better, and #BTC has also risen significantly.
So this time when there is a reduction in holdings, I want to truly understand from the data whether Buffett really anticipated the possibility of an economic recession. In fact, during several reductions, Buffett did not anticipate economic problems, but rather had expectations and adjustments regarding the sector. For example, during the pandemic in 2020, Buffett believed that the pandemic might affect people's travel, so he reduced his airline shares.
It seems that this is a very correct result, but it should be noted that Buffett still holds more shares in Apple, American Express, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and other companies. During an economic recession, these stocks also experienced significant drawdowns. If Buffett predicted a recession, he would inevitably adjust all his holdings, rather than just making adjustments based on sector performance.
Therefore, I want to use data to let everyone know that although Buffett is a stock god, he is still human and not so divine that his reductions will definitely lead to an economic recession. Even during periods of economic recovery or growth, Buffett will still adjust his stock holdings.
To Buffett may not necessarily be correct. Although it's a thankless task, I still want to give it a try.
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