Market Commentary: (Observer's Insight Issue 20241102)

It is important to know that yesterday's unemployment rate data did not increase expectations for interest rate cuts. From the news over the past two days, it seems that Trump's victory is not as certain as before; the gap is gradually narrowing. Could this be a major reason why institutions are not continuing to buy? After all, cryptocurrency is highly tied to Trump.

After a week of frenzy, BlackRock has pulled back. Yesterday, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF had zero inflows and outflows.

Only Grayscale's mini ETF bought 13.5 million, while other institutions continued to sell everything.

Yesterday, there was a net outflow of 55 million dollars from the US BTC spot ETF.

Although the outflow amount is not large, its impact on market sentiment is poor; big buyers suddenly stop, while small buyers continue to sell. With the election approaching and interest rate cuts imminent, what is going on? Is it another washout? Another wait-and-see?

My view remains unchanged: bullish.

Back to the market, last night around the time institutions were working, there were sharp spikes in both directions, which can be interpreted as leveraged liquidation. The support range of 68500-68850 mentioned yesterday was not breached, and the market remains the same. The second chart is the latest chip distribution chart; from a chip perspective, the area around 66,000 cannot break down; if it does, it will slide directly to 62,000.

Today is Saturday, and institutions are also on holiday; it’s a typical weekend market, particularly dull. Let’s wait for market movements before updating operations.