'Weekly Editor's Picks' is a 'functional' column of Odaily Planet Daily. Based on covering a large amount of real-time information weekly, the Planet Daily also publishes many high-quality in-depth analysis contents, but they may be hidden in the information flow and hot news, passing you by.
Thus, our editorial team will select some high-quality articles worth spending time on from the content published in the past 7 days every Saturday, bringing new insights to you in the crypto world from the perspectives of data analysis, industry judgment, and opinion output.
Now, let's read together:
Investment and entrepreneurship
In a bull market, the most important thing is to build your own trading system.
A trading system is a complete set of signal rules regarding entry, exit, buy-sell stop-loss, and take-profit.
To evaluate a trading system, focus on one core key metric, namely the 'profit and loss ratio'. The profit and loss ratio is the average profit amount divided by the average loss amount.
A complete operating system should include the following seven elements: cycle judgment, operational thinking, coin selection, timing, buy and sell rules, funds management, and risk control.
For example, the Granville Eight Method operates using moving averages to assess price trends, broadly following these rules: when the average line rises, it is a buying opportunity; when it falls, it is a selling opportunity; when the average line turns from falling to rising, and the stock price breaks above the average line from below, it is the best buying time; when the average line turns from rising to falling, and the stock price drops below the average line from above, it is an important selling time.
Interview with trader Benson: How do those who trade based on data make money?
In a volatile market, Benson finds high margin of safety positions to participate in the market based on indicators; at the same time, he monitors BTC inflows and exchange CVD to judge market trends.
Benson assigns most of his positions (over half) to quantitative strategies for coin-based value appreciation, primarily holding coins; about 40% of his positions are in stablecoins for guerrilla trading, participating in on-chain trading or initial contract orders.
Benson's trading strategy does not pursue explosive growth but focuses on stability. His goal is to outperform the market index, with performance this year so far being around 2 to 3 times.
Different targets have different operational methods. For targets that may become market hotspots, Benson will hold until market attention or the bull market ends; for larger market cap tokens, he will use technical analysis or fundamental analysis to determine possible price trends.
The unknown dark side: exposing market manipulation in Web3.0
Common manipulation tactics in the Web3.0 market include wash trading, spoofing, bear raiding, creating panic (FUD), sell wall manipulation, and pump and dump.
To prevent market manipulation, it's necessary to investigate the background of tokens, choose exchanges with high transparency, and remain vigilant while cautiously analyzing.
Although the regulatory framework and technology are continuously improving and advancing, participants in the Web3.0 field still need to remain vigilant.
Unlock and dump? How to solve the incentive misalignment problem in the crypto industry?
Web3 allows some market participants to relatively quickly obtain high returns without the project achieving product-market fit (PMF) or demonstrating actual utility, as acquiring liquidity is much easier. Token generation events (TGE) in Web3 can occur at any time, without the project reaching specific milestones. This weak correlation between success and exit in Web3 has led to significant incentive misalignments, with many market participants pursuing short-term returns without the need for long-term success. Meanwhile, the lack of transparency and regulation in the cryptocurrency space means that 'predatory' behavior can not only be profitable but often goes unpunished.
The beneficiaries of misaligned incentives are teams and founders, VCs, CEXs, market makers, and KOLs; the victims are retail investors and long-term participants.
Possible solutions to promote incentive alignment include regulatory intervention, non-action (waiting for the market to self-correct), encouraging self-discipline (transparency and accountability), improving token ownership design (avoiding low circulation during TGE, breaking away from fixed token supply models, designing convex profit distribution for insiders, introducing goal-based unlocking mechanisms).
For the industry, immediate measures to address misaligned incentives include: facing the problem, promoting transparency, holding wrongdoers accountable, and calling for innovative token ownership design.
Airdrop opportunities and interactive guide
A new round of PTR testing has opened; is there a last chance for the explosive chain game Seraph?
An article to understand the large financing projects in Q4 2024 and early participation opportunities
This week's must-participate: Pump.fun trading rush, Morph mainnet new task launch, Space and Time galaxy task
Interactive guide: Raising $25 million for the 'Global Blind Computer' Nillion
Q4 Airdrop Guide: 76 projects for early interaction
Meme
The hottest meme concepts roundup: AI, artists, zoos, and my world
Meme cultivation manual: The rebirth of wanting to be a diamond hand (Part 3) | Produced by Nan Zhi
The profile of the copy trading target should be:
Low drawdown ranks first—find the investment ratio in the worst-case loss scenario, and cash out a golden dog after consecutive losses;
Can make money—besides total profit and loss, also calculate the details of input costs, hoping it is not a large bet against a small one, and statistics on the proportion of high FOMO in losses;
Not betting large against small, but also reflecting the ability to enter at the bottom—statistics on the proportion of low-position entries in profits;
Trading frequency is not high—few buying instances;
Holding long—can also be included in the fourth point statistics, not cutting losses is also a factor.
Also recommended: (Increase PVP win rate, keep this advanced guide for Memecoin tools) (Is the Meme section starting to play art? A grand prize from the banana concept perspective).
Ethereum
Revisiting ETH's development and challenges: What exactly has caused ETH to lose vitality?
The author believes that ETH's long-term trend is not problematic, as there are virtually no direct competitors in the market; in Ethereum's narrative, the positioning of 'decentralized execution environment' is more crucial than 'execution environment', and this fundamental aspect has not changed.
The core reasons causing the current bottleneck in ETH's development are twofold: first, the Restaking sector's vampire attack on mainstream technical development paths of Layer 2 has diverted a significant amount of ETH ecosystem resources. And since the core mechanism of Restaking does not create incremental demand for ETH, it directly leads to the inability of the application side to acquire enough development resources and user attention, causing promotion and user education to stagnate; second, key opinion leaders in the Ethereum ecosystem are becoming aristocratized, forming a vested interest class, which has led to a solidification of class mobility, and the developer ecosystem lacks sufficient incentives, making innovation appear weak.
On-chain data interpretation: Why is ETH performing poorly, and when will it catch up?
To determine whether ETH is attracting funds, there are two metrics: the proportion of ETH traffic on exchanges and the overall on-chain activity. Using BTC as a reference, by observing the ETH traffic relative to BTC, one can clearly see the changes in fund preferences.
From a historical inductive perspective, if Ethereum continues to maintain the status quo (both internally and externally), then even with the support of ETFs, it will be difficult to achieve a proportion of exchange traffic to BTC exceeding 50% or more. Because after the wave of FOMO sentiment in March this year, the market has already rehearsed this.
To determine when to enter ETH, focus on:
The proportion of ETH's exchange traffic to BTC has reached 50% or more (currently at 35%);
Perhaps by the time it reaches 50%, ETH's price will have already risen, but it will definitely not be the highest. For me, I need to confirm the trend before executing the strategy;
The number of active addresses on-chain reflects the prosperity of the ETH ecosystem to some extent, which must continue to show an upward trend;
The number of transfers and transaction amounts must expand synchronously, especially the transaction amount, which is an important basis for measuring whether large funds are participating.
New perspectives on digital goods: Will ETH's value rebound?
This article explores the differences between digital goods (such as L1 tokens) and equity-like tokens, proposing a new framework for assessing digital assets, particularly the value of ETH. The author believes ETH should be viewed as a sovereign commodity rather than an equity-like token, as commodities do not generate cash flow or dividends. It also points out how to eliminate vague definitions of ETH assets, reiterates the importance of commodity premiums, and identifies potential errors in future value assessments.
In the next part of this series, the author will explain how and why certain technical steps, such as determining gas tokens, the sovereignty of supply, and consensus, are necessary conditions for establishing commodity premium social contracts.
Multi-ecosystem
In-depth exploration of liquidity pool quality: Has Solana really surpassed EVM chains?
In-depth research on the quality of liquidity pools on top blockchains, assessing whether Solana surpasses all EVM chains in trading volume, based on three criteria: established trading history, high liquidity, and sustained trading volume.
Without considering TVL, Solana has a considerable trading volume among the top 150 pools, but it has not come close to surpassing all EVM chains, nor has it surpassed Ethereum (although it is very close). Most of Solana's trading volume comes from pools with low liquidity, a significant portion of which comes from Pump Fun. Ethereum remains the dominant player in DeFi, but Base is unexpectedly becoming a strong challenger as it has the highest trading volume pools.
CeFi DeFi
BitMEX Research: Uncovering MicroStrategy's bond structure, when will it be liquidated?
MicroStrategy's debt size is 4.25 billion USD, based on its borrowed principal. Meanwhile, the company's current market value is as high as 43 billion USD, and the value of its Bitcoin holdings is 17 billion USD. Thus, bonds do not constitute a high proportion of MicroStrategy's capital structure.
However, if the price of Bitcoin falls sharply, for example, to around 15,000 USD per coin, and MicroStrategy cannot further leverage, analysts may need to factor Bitcoin's 'forced liquidation' into their considerations. However, this potential forced liquidation timeframe will focus on the expiration dates and option exercise dates mentioned in this article, which are spread between 2027 and 2031, and the timings are very clear. Therefore, even if Bitcoin does fall to around 15,000 USD, the likelihood of MicroStrategy being forced to sell Bitcoin to repay bonds remains low.
Behind the meme craze, Perp DEX has become a beneficiary of on-chain liquidity aggregation.
Since the end of last year and the beginning of this year, Perp DEX protocols such as Hyperliquid, Drift, Surf, and Orderly have emerged, while the veteran leader dYdX has also become active again. With the rapid rise of the meme sector, the power of on-chain liquidity has further opened up new possibilities for the Perp DEX market.
Hyperliquid has shown a strong wealth effect, but the discussion remains focused within the English-speaking circle. Based on the spot change rankings of Hyperliquid, it can be observed that under the premise of catching up with CEX trading experiences, token increases of 100% or more already provide experiences comparable to CEX. Instead of playing contracts on CEX, it's better to trade spot on DEX.
Weekly Hotspot Supplement
In the past week, on October 30, BTC rose to 73650 USDT before pulling back, only 130 USDT away from its historical high (institutional market outlook), and briefly dropped below 69000 USD on November 1; CZ made his first public appearance after being released: focusing on education in the future, and will not involve issuing new tokens in the short term; Canary Capital submitted an application for a SOL ETF to the US SEC;
Additionally, regarding policy and macro markets, the Washington Post will not endorse a presidential candidate for the first time since the 1980s; Morgan Stanley: The US presidential election may trigger severe market volatility, advising investors to focus on long-term strategies; Trump posted to celebrate the 16th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper; Trump-related stocks surged; Immutable received a Wells notice from the US SEC, accused of violating securities laws; Russia released new crypto regulations, expanding the scope of monitoring on mining and related infrastructure; Russia lifted the ban on Bitcoin mining, which may encourage other countries to mine Bitcoin; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will launch a virtual asset index series; the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is expected to issue the first batch of formal licenses to applicants for virtual asset trading platforms by the end of the year;
In terms of opinions and voices, Coinbase CEO: The next SEC chair should withdraw all meaningless cases and apologize to the American people; Willy Woo: Altcoins are an insiders' game, and the current cycle is dominated by meme coins; Arthur Hayes: Go Bitcoin, massive liquidity is on the way; Matrixport: Bitcoin demand surges due to Trump's election probability and rising ETF purchase volume; HashKey Livio: Hong Kong's Web3 has entered its second phase, from single points to a full ecosystem; Vitalik published an article exploring future developments of the Ethereum protocol titled 'The Purge', with goals including reducing storage needs and the complexity of the Ethereum protocol;
Regarding institutions, large companies, and leading projects, major Microsoft shareholder BlackRock and Vanguard will vote on the proposal of 'whether to research buying BTC'; the Trump family's crypto project WLFI plans to launch a stablecoin, and the team is developing key project components; OKX announced Standard Chartered Bank as its third-party custodial partner; Magic Eden opened testME airdrop claims; Grass airdrop claims are open; CAT 721, the first official NFT series, has begun minting;
On the data front, Deribit CEO: The number of Bitcoin call options expiring on November 8 is twice that of put options; on October 30, TradingView data showed BTC's market share breaking 60%; Tether's Q3 financial report: net profit of 2.5 billion USD, US Treasury holdings reached 105 billion USD, stablecoin circulation reached 120 billion USD;
In terms of security, the founder of Ordinals stated: the ord 0.21.2 version has fixed a bug that could lead to rune loss, and it is recommended to upgrade as soon as possible; Truth Terminal founder X was robbed, leading to a series of dramatic events; ... Well, it was another rollercoaster week.
Appendix (Weekly Editor's Picks) series portal.
See you next time~
