Yesterday's task was a decline, and today's task is still a decline. Today, I also specifically posted a tweet about trends, focusing on paying attention to the position of trends and cycles during price fluctuations. Therefore, even though the price of #BTC has temporarily dropped below $69,000, I am not too worried. On one hand, I have mentioned before that the consolidation below $70,000 is not enough and requires more time to settle for greater safety.
Additionally, some friends have asked whether the overall decline in cryptocurrency prices is due to the election or the non-farm payroll data. In fact, we can look at the U.S. stock market and find that it is performing quite well without significant declines. Therefore, the issues with BTC may not be closely related to macroeconomic factors or the election, and it cannot be ruled out that it is guided by emotions. Particularly, from the ETF data, it can be clearly seen that BlackRock investors are buying a lot of BTC and #ETH. Of course, this does not mean that if BlackRock buys, it will definitely go up, but it represents the sentiment of U.S. investors.
Earlier, I also shared a CBNC news flash stating that a large number of American investors are buying BTC before the election. Look, this is not different from the ETF situation; this is driven by the election cycle and the trend of monetary easing. As for today's non-farm payroll data, regardless of whether it has any exaggeration, at least the Bureau of Labor Statistics has provided a theoretically reasonable explanation, and that’s enough.
Looking back at the data of BTC itself, the drop in price has led many short-term investors to frequently trade, but there has been a noticeable decrease in turnover compared to the previous two days. The proportion of losing investors exiting the market has begun to increase, while the exit of short-term profit-takers is gradually decreasing. With less than three days to the election, the current changes are at most just a prelude; the climax has yet to arrive, and it is still worth anticipating.
Many friends are worried about the Democrats' chances of winning and whether a Trump loss would lead to a significant drop. However, from a long-term perspective, whether it's Harris or the Republicans, their attitudes towards BTC or cryptocurrencies are gradually changing. We can still anticipate the passage of SAB121. Of course, it is certain that the cryptocurrency market is now more closely tied to Trump, and if he is not elected, a short-term price correction may be unavoidable.
Currently, the support between $64,000 and $69,000 is still very healthy. The main turnover is from short-term investors, while earlier investors remain indifferent to the present situation. It seems that even approaching previous highs has not caused early investors to feel fearful of heights, which is a good sign, indicating that most investors have developed new expectations for BTC's price rather than just competing over the current highs.
Tomorrow is the weekend, and liquidity is worse. It’s hard to say how things will go; it still depends on sentiment. The key focus will be next week.
Data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing
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