Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On October 30, Bitcoin failed to set a new all-time high. After rising all the way above $73,600, it was only $100 away from $73,777. Unfortunately, the follow-up funds were weak. After several rounds of shock consolidation, it finally fell all the way. At around 9 pm on October 31, BTC accelerated its decline, once falling to around $68,800, and has now fallen back to around $69,500.
After rising above $2,700, ETH also experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of around $2,500, recovering the gains of the previous few days. Altcoins also fell across the board.
In terms of contract data, $276 million was liquidated in the last 24 hours, with long positions liquidated amounting to $247 million.
Why did Bitcoin fail to break its historical high? How will the subsequent market trend develop?
Harris's support in swing states before the U.S. election leads to increased variables
The U.S. presidential election will officially begin on November 5, with the market often experiencing significant fluctuations in the days leading up to it.
Looking back. On the day of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the BTC market saw declines in the first two days, then rose on the day the election results were announced, followed by another two days of decline, and then continued to rise.
Moreover, according to a recent poll reported by Forbes, Harris leads Trump by a slim margin of just 1%. In seven key swing states that may decide the outcome of the election, Harris leads Trump with 49% to 48% support, whereas a week ago, Trump led Harris with 50% to 46%.
This numerical change further increases the uncertainty of the election results. After the U.S. stock market opened lower, the losses widened, with technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks also experiencing a collective decline.
However, according to Polymarket data, Trump's probability of winning is significantly higher than that of Harris.
Some funds, out of caution, are choosing to stay on the sidelines and wait for the U.S. election results to settle.
Future market trends
Bitcoin's investment returns in the fourth quarter after its halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 have all performed well, with returns of 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02%, respectively. Among these, the return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, in November 2020 it was 42.95%, and this month's return is still worth looking forward to.
It is noteworthy that Bitcoin rose by 7.35% in September this year, marking its best performance historically; every time Bitcoin rose in September, it was able to rise until the end of the year.
Zhao Changpeng hints that a bull market will arrive in 2025
Zhao Changpeng stated in an interview at the main venue of the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai that he cannot predict the future but can analyze history. Historically, Bitcoin has undergone very clear four-year cycles. The years 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. However, 2012 was a 'recovery year', and many people do not trace back that far. 2016 was also a 'recovery year', followed by a surge in 2017. The year 2020 was likewise a 'recovery year', with 2021 being a bull market.
Therefore, based on current analysis, 2024 should also be a 'recovery year'. What will happen next year remains uncertain, but in the long run, the outlook for the entire industry remains very optimistic.
Standard Chartered analyst: Trump's victory will boost Bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of the year
Geoff Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that Bitcoin prices might see a correction before the U.S. presidential election on November 5, with increased volatility expected in the coming days. Due to traders choosing to close positions to take profits before the election, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking above the historical high of $73,700 before the U.S. election is decreasing.
Geoff Kendrick added that if the Republican Party (Trump) achieves a significant victory in the U.S. Congress, Bitcoin prices will experience greater volatility, potentially reaching $125,000 by the end of the year and triggering a new wave of altcoin enthusiasm.
