With the sudden outbreak of bearish momentum, the derivatives market quickly fell, with the Bitcoin long-short ratio dropping to 0.92% in 24 hours, and the liquidation amount reaching $276.86 million, of which the long liquidation amounted to $246.38 million.
In the bear market recovery, Bitcoin's open interest fell by 5.36% to $41.24 billion. Will this adjustment lead to a continued crash this week? This Coinpedia article focuses on Bitcoin's price trends to determine possible next steps. Therefore, please read to the end and subscribe for the latest analysis and updates.
BTC Price Analysis
As the cryptocurrency bull market cools down, Bitcoin is experiencing its third consecutive day of decline, forming a triple black crow pattern. Yesterday, the bear market reversal began with a 0.55% drop on Wednesday, leading to a 2.90% drop last night.
This completes the evening star pattern on the daily chart as it faces resistance approaching historical highs. Currently, the BTC price is trading at $69,556, down 0.97% intraday.
As the price slightly declines, the largest cryptocurrency is gaining support from its 78.60% Fibonacci level at $68,943. With bearish pullbacks intensifying, BTC's gains so far this week are currently limited to 2.39%, down from a peak of 8.34% on Tuesday.
Despite the sudden increase in selling pressure, the simple moving averages still maintain bullish signals. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs have formed a golden cross. Meanwhile, the 100-day SMA maintains a positive trend, attempting to break through the 200-day EMI.
However, momentum indicators show that the MACD and signal lines struggle to maintain a positive alignment, warning of a bearish cross.
As the entire market anticipates a reversal after re-testing, the $69,000 level remains crucial. A rapid V-shaped recovery would increase the chances of breaking through $73,800 and setting a new all-time high.
On the contrary, a break below the 78.60% Fibonacci level could have a devastating impact on current market sentiment. With the upcoming U.S. presidential election, increased institutional support through ETFs, and recent interest rate cuts, the public generally expects new highs. A closing price below $68,943 will increase the likelihood of a drop to $65,439.
Bitcoin on-chain shows room for growth
Price trend analysis indicates that Bitcoin's ongoing upward trend requires a rapid reversal, while on-chain analysis shows that there is significant room for Bitcoin to rise. The current on-chain transaction volume for Bitcoin is $43.25 billion, slightly above half of the 52-week high of $83.14 billion.
Meanwhile, monthly trading volume peaked at $2.11 trillion in March 2024, currently at $1.29 trillion. Therefore, compared to the peak of the rebound in 2024, Bitcoin's on-chain value has the potential to soar further.
Additionally, the number of new addresses on the Bitcoin network has been on a downward trend. The daily number of new addresses is 321.57k. This figure is slightly above half of the 52-week high of 578.17k set last November. Over the past 12 months, this number has nearly halved, but shows encouraging signs of recovery compared to the sharp decline in June.
Thus, as the cryptocurrency rally recovers, the potential for Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume and the number of new addresses could significantly increase. In short, if the bull market continues, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching the $90,000 mark before the end of the year will increase.