Author: Blurr
As the U.S. presidential election day approaches, the cryptocurrency industry is also on edge — regarding the globally debated issue of 'cryptocurrency assets,' it is not only a governing matter with obvious differences between presidential candidates Trump and the outgoing Biden administration but also a focal point of ongoing controversy in this election process.
Two opposing viewpoints
In this U.S. presidential election, the final two candidates are very distinct in their views on the cryptocurrency industry. Trump has clearly expressed his support and participated in the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville in July 2024, making a high-profile statement of 'support.' In contrast, the other presidential candidate, Harris, has maintained a relatively ambiguous stance towards the digital asset industry, but it is more moderate compared to the position of the current Biden administration.
During the campaign process, Trump's policy proposals regarding digital assets that have had significant public impact include:
Establishing a national BTC reserve: Trump stated that his administration will 'retain all BTC currently held or acquired by the U.S. government' and will become 'the core of the national strategic BTC reserve.' As of October 2023, it is reported that the U.S. government holds over $5 billion in BTC, most of which comes from asset forfeitures in criminal cases.
Establishing a digital asset advisory committee: Trump proposed the creation of an organization called the 'Bitcoin and Crypto Assets Presidential Advisory Committee,' whose rules will be written by those who love the industry, rather than by those who hate it.
Stopping the Federal Reserve from creating a central bank digital currency: The development of central bank digital currencies by various countries' central banks has become a trend, but the Federal Reserve has yet to decide whether to create a fully digital dollar. Trump has publicly opposed this idea multiple times in 2024. In May 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting the Federal Reserve from creating a digital dollar, but it still requires a lengthy deliberation process to see if it can ultimately become law.
Creating a cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial: This aims to promote the widespread use of stablecoins and decentralized finance. According to public reports, the project's early white paper mentioned the launch of a new digital asset called $WLFI, which is planned to be sold to the public.
Although three years ago, Trump held a skeptical attitude towards cryptocurrency assets and had criticized on social media that cryptocurrency could facilitate illegal activities, since August 2024, he has repositioned himself as a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency assets.
Harris previously served as the Vice President of the current Biden administration. The current U.S. government has adopted a strong regulatory stance towards the cryptocurrency industry.
As of now, Harris has not made many statements regarding the cryptocurrency industry. On September 22, 2024, at a fundraising event in New York City, Harris mentioned for the first time a plan to 'encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets.'
At the same time, media reports indicate that Harris stated at an event in Manhattan that she might take a more open stance towards the cryptocurrency industry than the current government. However, Harris has yet to propose a specific policy plan.
Furthermore, considering the need to compete for potential voters, the Democratic leaders behind Harris are working to improve relations with the cryptocurrency industry. A digital asset advocacy organization called Crypto4Harris held a virtual town hall meeting that brought together multiple Democratic members.
Actions in the cryptocurrency market
According to media reports citing data, companies in the cryptocurrency industry, such as Coinbase and Ripple, have become dominant corporate donors in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, accounting for 48% of all corporate political donations in 2024, nearly half.
According to data from OpenSecrets, a nonprofit organization tracking campaign spending, as of August 2024, the cryptocurrency industry has spent $119 million on political donations, exceeding the political donation funding from all other industries.
In this U.S. presidential election, the cryptocurrency industry has long sensed an opportunity to elect government officials who support the cryptocurrency industry.
It is reported that since 2010, companies in the cryptocurrency industry have been actively participating in political elections, with their depth, breadth, and scale of donations only second to fossil fuel companies, making it the second largest industry actively involved in U.S. political elections.
A report released by the ETF issuer Grayscale in its 'Election 2024 The Role of Crypto' includes survey data that indirectly reflects some market conditions in the U.S. digital asset industry:
Among American voters surveyed, 53% of voters are familiar with cryptocurrency assets. This percentage has increased compared to surveys conducted in 2023.
Regulation can still play an important role in enhancing investors' confidence in cryptocurrency assets — 80% of surveyed American voters believe that regulators can play a role in managing emerging technologies, and 20% of surveyed voters indicated that they would be more likely to hold cryptocurrency assets if there were clearer digital asset regulations or policies.
40% of surveyed American voters said that compared to previous elections, they are more concerned about presidential candidates' positions on BTC or other cryptocurrency assets in this election.
Two-thirds of surveyed American voters stated that they would consider the presidential candidates' positions on digital assets before voting. Among them, 56% of surveyed voters indicated that they would be more likely to vote for presidential candidates who maintain a learning and understanding attitude towards digital assets rather than those who are indifferent.
Opposition voices
According to the social event prediction betting site Polymarket, in early October 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris reached a tie in support rates, close to 50%, but from late October 2024, Trump's support rate suddenly surged, reaching 65.5% by October 31, 2024, becoming the focus of election discussions.
Experts responsible for researching elections have publicly stated that this situation may stem from the enthusiasm of a minority of speculative cryptocurrency industry participants trying to bolster Trump.
Although the influence of the cryptocurrency industry in political games seems to be increasing, the opposition voices against cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. have never ceased.
Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, stated in a media interview that the cryptocurrency industry 'is filled with fraudsters and speculators.' He pointed out: 'Crypto assets are only a small part of the U.S. and global capital markets, but they could undermine ordinary investors' trust in capital markets... Global investors have lost too much money because companies in the cryptocurrency industry have not followed regulatory requirements.'
Current cryptocurrency friendliness does not mean cryptocurrency friendliness in five years.
With over a hundred million dollars in election funds, cryptocurrency has become an important factor in the 2024 U.S. election, influencing not only presidential candidates but also a large number of voters.
Trump attracts cryptocurrency asset supporters through publicly positive commitments, while Harris and the Democrats are striving to catch up and are unwilling to give up the substantial election cash flow that can be obtained by supporting this industry. Meanwhile, supporters in the cryptocurrency field are trying to exchange their support in elections for more favorable regulatory policies for the future development of the industry.
However, amidst the clamor, the blog post written by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin remains worth revisiting, as he expressed the following views on the relationship between cryptocurrency assets and politics:
If you see a politician who is friendly towards cryptocurrency assets, one thing you can do is to check their views on cryptocurrency assets from five years ago.
At the same time, you can also look up their views on topics related to the cryptocurrency industry from five years ago. In particular, try to find topics where 'support for freedom' and 'support for corporations' are inconsistent.
If a politician supports cryptocurrency assets, then the key question to ask is: Are their reasons for doing so correct? Do they share a vision of the technological, political, and economic developments of the 21st century that aligns with yours? Do they have a longer-term positive vision beyond immediate concerns like 'defeating other bad tribes'?
If there is, that would be great: you should support them and clearly state that this is the reason you support them. If not, then either completely stay out of it or find better allies to join forces with.
At the same time, Vitalik Buterin explicitly opposes the trend of choosing political allegiance based on who 'supports crypto,' arguing that such decision-making carries high risks and may contradict the original intentions and values of entering the cryptocurrency field.
With the approach of the U.S. presidential election day on November 5, 2024, the competition between presidential candidates from both parties is intensifying. Regarding the future of cryptocurrency assets, as expressed by Vitalik Buterin, the future of digital assets should be related to a 'decentralized' future; 'crypto' is not just about digital assets and blockchain — what we need is not only to support 'crypto,' but also to support deeper goals.
