Although Trump's chances of winning are significantly ahead emotionally, this is more a reflection of the psychology of market participants rather than objective reality. Many participants in the Polymarket are crypto advocates from around the world who are concerned about Trump but have no actual voting influence. Early voting data indicates that in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, Harris has a significant lead, making it difficult for Trump to turn the tide.

Upcoming Major Events

• November 1, 20:30 (Hong Kong Time): Release of US Non-Farm Payroll Data

• November 5: US Presidential Election

• November 8, 02:00 (Hong Kong Time): Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

In light of the upcoming major events, maintaining a non-predictive principle and focusing on trend following is key. For major events, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions with a short-term strategy, prioritizing risk control to avoid exposure to risks caused by emotional fluctuations.

Although I also hope Trump wins, I only trade based on trends.