I said I would stop once I earned 30 million!
But I have made enough, 30 million; now that I want to stop, what should I invest in to better hedge against risks?
Buying a house - national housing prices are falling, with a serious overcapacity, the dividend period has passed, and next, I will have to pay property tax. Should I still pay an intelligence tax???
The A shares - theoretically, should be the best place for large domestic funds to seek refuge, but unfortunately, over the past 20 years, they have been repeatedly let down, going from hope to despair, with only those old leeks from 20 years ago remaining.
Next, are there great opportunities for ordinary people in US stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and US bonds? You can take a look at what assets the top 20 global billionaires hold. Firstly, these are often the preferred choices for many global wealthy individuals seeking risk aversion. The Nasdaq and S&P have shown a stable upward trend over the past 20 years, and have already steadily increased 7 times in that period.
The Chinese stock market fluctuates like an electrocardiogram. Occasionally, it even stops beating!
Also: Bitcoin! I believe that in the next 10 years, the investment return cost-effectiveness will be the highest for BTC. It has been so for the past decade and will continue to be so in the next decade. Here we need to think carefully:
First, in the next 10 years, US debt will at least double from the current level, exceeding 70 trillion US dollars. Refer to my previous article: Why do institutions predict that the price of BTC will exceed 1 million USDT each in the future? Economic liquidity must have a reservoir to carry it.
Second, currently, global debt has reached 100 trillion US dollars. It is highly likely to exceed 200 trillion US dollars in the next 10 years. Such a large economic liquidity and inflation will certainly require new financial derivatives to seek risk aversion.
Third: Bitcoin has financial and monetary attributes, and most importantly, like gold and silver, it has global consensus; it is superior to gold and silver because it is decentralized and easy to carry. A private key solves the problem.
Many people will ask a question: why is real estate not a risk-averse asset for the rich? After looking at the past 30 years of development in the US and Japan, you will understand this without further analysis.
Why do I say that real estate no longer has the property of being a risk-averse asset? Just look at the past 10 years of China's housing price index; do you think you would still invest?
It should be pointed out that high-quality properties in mega cities will still have appreciation and risk-averse attributes in the future, but you need to be selective. Do not invest in real estate in other small cities anymore. Because the overall trend has already passed, there is no larger appreciation space left.
The reason why real estate in China has been the best asset for villagers to hedge against risks in the past decade is essentially due to the 4 trillion stimulus under the 2008 economic crisis, which made real estate the reservoir for this bubble, greatly increasing the leverage of the entire real estate sector, which gradually grew larger in the following years, but the pandemic began to cause it to burst. Look at Evergrande's over 13,000 unfinished buildings nationwide, and you will know that the most miserable are the villagers, how many people spent a lifetime of savings only to buy a pit, or a property without even a sales office.
Capitalist countries have experienced this over the past 30 years, while villages are experiencing economic recession after the bubble. This time, the crazy money-splashing in the stock market did not bring any good outcome but rather the running away of institutions and large investors while retail investors enter the market! Will it rise in the future? How much can it rise? A big question mark???
Why I am not optimistic about the Chinese stock market: Since I lost 400,000 in 2017, I have not entered the market again. The market in October is very good, and many people ask me if I want to enter. My view is: absolutely do not touch it, unless the entire system is reformed.
It is no exaggeration to say that the current Chinese stock market is at the same level as in 2007. This means that if you invested in A-shares 17 years ago, you are not making money now, and there is over a 98% probability that you are still losing money.
The past 20 years have been a mess, and the next 20 years won’t be much better. It is not that Chinese stock investors cannot do it, nor is it that villagers are unwilling to invest; it is just that the system and regulation of the Chinese stock market are too poor. Many companies go public just to raise money, and when that fails, they issue more shares! They are always in the phase of cutting leeks, and new leeks have no opportunity to enter the market!
Therefore, in the future, I personally will still not be optimistic about the Chinese stock market. Even if there are brief surges, in the long run, it will still lead to losses.
Compare it: will you choose the Chinese stock market or the US stock market in the future? The Chinese stock market needs deep reform from the root to see if there can be significant improvement; otherwise, I believe many people will not enter the market.
At this time, any investment you make should consider the following questions:
First: Risk!!! I have told many paid students that we come to the market to make money, but the premise of making money is to first ensure that your principal does not incur losses.
Second: Can your investment outperform the inflation rate? If the annual inflation rate is 4% and your fixed long-term investment in the bank is 2.85%, then in the long run, this investment is a failure. A simple example: Many people born in the 90s know that 20 years ago, the price of pork was 1.8 yuan per jin, and now it is 20 yuan per jin, meaning inflation has increased nearly 11 times. However, your investment in the bank 20 years ago had an annualized return of 2.85%. Your earnings will not reach 11 times!
Third: The cost-effectiveness of investment targets. We can never achieve perfection at any time. What we can do is to clearly understand the high or low cost-effectiveness when you enter an investment. Only then can you benefit from the wealth appreciation brought by the dividend period; otherwise, many times you will be confused, holding on to your losses while not being able to hold onto your gains.
Fourth: You also need faith!!! During the last bull market, when 5.19 made me lose over 17 million, I also doubted whether this circle could make money or allow me to earn more money in the future! When I walked out of Lingyin Temple, I seemed to understand this principle: What supports the faith of religious believers in their hearts? On the Sichuan-Tibet line, why can you see so many believers worshiping all the way to the Potala Palace in Lhasa? On the other hand, what did the Red Army rely on to complete the 25,000-mile Long March and achieve victory?
So whether you are in the cryptocurrency space or in your area of expertise, you must have faith; otherwise, you will not gain anything and will always be the one getting cut!
Fifth: Investment must have your own logic. If you are not very clear, you can ask, but do not blindly follow the crowd. When FOMO hits, you will be the one taking the bag, lifting the cart for others.
Sixth: Go learn about the field you are investing in. I have always emphasized: learning can refine and strengthen your skills, while also recharging your own faith, allowing you to hold onto the wealth you have earned.
Previous quality content:
Key point: Why do institutions predict that the price of BTC will exceed 1 million USDT each in the future?
1, why do you need to learn to write public accounts in the cryptocurrency space?
2, Brother, if you hesitate to buy BTC, then please stay away from the cryptocurrency space!
3, in this round of bull market, I only want to earn ten times the return. How should I operate? Come, let me teach you!
4, are you lacking money-making opportunities in the cryptocurrency space? No, absolutely not! What you lack is an excellent guide.
5, what was the trend of BTC before and after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the past decade? [Is the net inflow exceeding 11 billion USDT in the past month a sign of bottom-fishing?]
6, the battle for supremacy between Liu and Sun in Hong Kong's Web.3, who will be the strongest king in the future?
7, global financial black swan, over 320,000 people in the cryptocurrency space exploded today, with a liquidation scale exceeding 1.2 billion USDT!
8, the world's largest public chain - Ethereum [ETH] - its development over the past decade and future outlook.
9, the next best asset for global circulation - BTC
10, which public chain will be the performance king of the future?
