Date: 31-10-2024
Technical Analysis:
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The latest CryptoQuant chart sheds light on critical indicators for Bitcoin's price movement from January to October 2024. It presents an opportunity to interpret BTC’s current position and predict potential moves with the help of price, balance, and percentage change data. Analysing these metrics, along with macroeconomic influences, helps us understand whether BTC is poised for a new bull run or a possible pullback.
Chart Analysis Overview 📊
Key Metrics in the Chart:
Bitcoin Price (White Line)
Total Balance of Bitcoin (Red Line)
30-day Percentage Change (Blue Area & Dashed Line)
30-day Percentage Change SMA (30) (Dashed Line)
Key Observations as of October 29, 2024:
BTC Price: ~$69,906
Total Balance of BTC: 3.936M BTC
30-day % Change: 0.087 (~8.7%)
30-day % Change SMA(30): 0.78%
With these indicators, let's dive into resistance, support, and potential price movements in the short and long term.
📈 Detailed Indicator Breakdown & Key Levels 📉
1️⃣ Bitcoin Price Action (White Line)
The white line (BTC price) has seen considerable fluctuations through 2024, approaching a high of ~$70K as of late October. Price trends reveal strong bullish momentum but also show periodic corrections. We can deduce support and resistance zones based on historical price levels and balance fluctuations.
Support Levels 📉
$66,000: This level has recently acted as a base, providing support during the last price dip.
$63,000-$64,000: This range aligns closely with the 200-day moving average and has historically served as a solid support level.
$58,000-$60,000: If BTC breaks below $63,000, we could see a deeper correction toward this range, which aligns with the lower balance and percentage change zones from mid-2024.
Resistance Levels 📈
$73,000: BTC faces immediate resistance at this level. If price breaks above, expect a potential rally to $80,000.
$80,000-$85,000: This is a major psychological level; a breakout here could attract large institutional investment, pushing BTC higher.
$100,000: Long-term bullish target, which aligns with broader market expectations and would indicate a fully confirmed bull cycle.
2️⃣ Total Balance of Bitcoin (Red Line)
The total BTC balance shows consistent accumulation across 2024, particularly from March to October. This is significant for understanding supply and demand dynamics.
Accumulation Zones (Supportive of Price Increases): As balances rise (increasing supply held by wallets rather than exchanges), supply shock becomes more likely, potentially supporting upward price pressure.
Distribution Zones: Decreases in the balance (distribution to exchanges) could indicate sell pressure. Currently, balances remain high, suggesting holders are not yet ready to sell, which is bullish.
3️⃣ 30-Day Percentage Change (Blue Area & Dashed Line)
The blue area shows the short-term volatility of BTC’s percentage change. When the 30-day % change rises, it often coincides with increased buying momentum and rising prices.
Recent Increase: The recent 30-day % change sits around 0.087 (8.7%). This surge from negative territory in early 2024 to positive levels by October suggests renewed buying interest.
30-day SMA: The 30-day SMA smooths out these fluctuations. Currently at 0.78%, it confirms the upward momentum, suggesting further upside potential.
Key Insights from Percentage Change and Price Correlation 📉📈
Historically, high percentage changes (> 10%) align with bull market phases. Although the current reading is around 8.7%, a further increase above 10-12% would signal a strong bullish continuation. Conversely, a dip below 5% could warn of incoming price correction.
Price Predictions: Short-Term & Long-Term Scenarios 🔮
Bullish Scenario 🚀
If BTC maintains its momentum, here's what we can expect:
Break Above $73,000: Would open the path to $80,000.
Next Target: $85,000: Sustained volume could push BTC toward this psychological resistance.
Long-Term Potential: $100,000: A breakthrough to $100,000 could occur by Q1 2025 if accumulation continues and macro conditions remain favourable.
Bullish Macro Influences 🌐
Potential Fed Rate Cuts: Speculations of rate cuts could fuel BTC’s rise as investors seek inflation-resistant assets.
Bitcoin ETF Approval: If a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved in the U.S., institutional interest could skyrocket, triggering a demand-driven bull run.
Bearish Scenario 📉
In the event of a correction:
Break Below $66,000: BTC could retest $63,000-$64,000 (200-day MA).
Drop to $58,000: If the price fails to hold $63,000, a move to $58,000 would be likely, aligning with the lower range of the balance.
Long-Term Bearish Target: $50,000: This level could be tested if the macro environment worsens, or if distribution accelerates.
Bearish Macro Risks ⚠️
Extended Fed Rate Hikes: Unexpected rate hikes would deter speculative flows into BTC, making $50,000 a potential bottom.
Global Economic Instability: Recession concerns could increase selling pressure as investors shift to less volatile assets.
Summary: Key Takeaways & Strategy Recommendations 📝
Watch the $73,000 Resistance: A breakout here could signal entry for a bullish rally to $80,000.
Monitor the 30-day % Change Indicator: If it surpasses 10%, BTC is likely in a bull phase; a drop below 5% suggests caution.
Balance Trends Are Bullish: High balances imply holders remain bullish, supporting upward potential.
Macro Events are Key: Monitor Fed decisions and ETF news, as they can heavily impact BTC’s trajectory.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and may lead to substantial financial loss. Always perform your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the publisher or its affiliates. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves inherent risks, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please exercise caution.
