Since the spot ETF data of BTC reached the lowest point of the stage on August 8, the funds have been flowing in, pushing BTC up. The US election is coming soon, and both candidates say they support the development of encryption. Although it is hard to say whether it can be realized in the later stage, it is at least good for the development of the industry, and the macro environment and micro applications are very favorable.

There are also some things that are easy to overlook, such as the impact of the halving and the expectation of interest rate cuts. During the last halving, the price was adjusted at a high level for 5 months. From the halving in April this year to now, the adjustment cycle is similar, and there is a commonality in time.

In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has a regular pattern. The expected interest rate cut and the actual interest rate cut are very helpful for the rise of encryption in the early and medium term. The decline is generally when the interest rate cut is about to end and when the expected interest rate hike begins.

As things stand now, although the market has some differences on the number and magnitude of future interest rate cuts, it is unlikely that interest rates will be raised in the short term, and the monetary environment is still quite loose.