Introduction: What is a prediction market?
As the U.S. election approaches, there is a market called "prediction betting" that is used by people to bet on who will be elected. In addition to elections, there are also various sports events, military wars, and weather forecasts. Even something as small as a celebrity's speech can be used as betting content.
Different from traditional gambling, traders can buy and sell various predicted results before the results are released, similar to futures contracts, which can be closed in advance.
However, the traditional online prediction market faces various problems, such as unclear mechanisms and payment channels. Distributed ledgers on the blockchain ensure that transactions are open and transparent. The odds of betting can be calculated through smart contracts and oracles. , and then removes the possibility of human intervention from a third-party central institution, and using cryptocurrency as a payment channel, you can adjust your bets more freely and reduce handling fees.
On-chain can be said to be the perfect solution for prediction markets, so it is attracting more and more people to use on-chain prediction markets to place bets. In this article, the author will analyze PolyMarket, the current leader in the prediction market, and introduce readers to PolyMarket and its potential airdrop opportunities.
Predict market data performance
Since DefiLlama can observe the prediction market sector this year, TVL has continued to improve, once creating ATH, and currently has exceeded 320 million US dollars, with a single-day transaction volume of 100 million US dollars, and a fee consumption of about 80,000 US dollars, which can be observed to the current popularity of the prediction market.
Prediction market sector TVL
The top 10 TVL projects are shown in the figure below. PolyMarket accounts for nearly 90% of the top TVL projects, and the top three prediction platforms such as Azuro and Predict Fun have experienced good growth in the near future.
Top 10 TVL projects in prediction market
As shown by Dune data, the trading volume of the prediction market has grown by leaps and bounds since the middle of the year, rising day by day as the US election approaches in November, and a large proportion of the trading volume is occupied by the leader PolyMarket (dark blue).
Predict market trading volume
What is PolyMarket?
PolyMarket is a decentralized information prediction market that allows users to use cryptocurrency to bet on any controversial event in the world on the platform and turn their insights into the future into profits. It is built on Polygon and uses Polygon L2 to increase transaction speed and reduce costs. It is currently the project with the highest transaction volume and TVL in the prediction market.
PolyMarket Financing Background
PolyMarket currently has three rounds of financing, with a total financing amount of up to US$74 million, led by Polychain and General Catalyst. The latest Series B financing also received personal investment funding from Buterin, with a very strong financing background.
The team members are shown in the picture below. They are all European and American teams with no Chinese participation. The founder is Shayne Coplan, who graduated from the Department of Computer Science at New York University and joined the blockchain industry as early as 2018. The team is engaged in the blockchain and financial fields. The strength is strong.
In addition to having a good financing and team background, PolyMarket is built on Polygon and mainly uses USDC for betting, which also significantly reduces interaction costs. Based on market predictions, the author predicts that Azure has already airdropped, and believes that PolyMarket also has the possibility of airdrops. The interaction cost is low and the profit-loss ratio is very high!
PolyMarket Financing Background
PolyMarket data performance
According to Dune data, PolyMarket’s trading volume and user number are gradually rising, with current daily trading volume of US$110 million and monthly trading volume of US$1.82 billion. There are 33,000 daily active wallets, 177,000 monthly active wallets, and a total of nearly 4 million transactions. The author observes that most of them are betting transactions related to the US election. PolyMarket also relies on this to get out of the circle and attract many Web2 users to join.
PolyMarket data performance
According to the table below from Dune, most users on PolyMarket currently place single bets between US$100 and US$500 and between US$10 and US$50, which means that their users are dominated by small and medium-sized players and are not controlled by large investors. The author believes that this situation also better reflects that PolyMarket is a real user who wants to express his position. It is not just a gambling game. The possibility of getting out of the circle is also higher. I look forward to whether PolyMarket can continue to be popular after the election.
Single bet amount
PolyMarket potential airdrop
Although PolyMarket currently has no clear plan to issue coins, Azuro, the prediction market mentioned above, has released its first airdrop. In addition, PolyMarket is in full swing recently, and the background of high financing makes it possible to issue coin airdrops.
PolyMarket has only announced a total financing amount of US$74 million, and no relevant valuation has been announced. If the common financing amount is estimated at 10 times, coupled with the excellent performance after the B round of financing, and there are expectations for another financing, the author believes that PolyMarket is reasonable. The valuation falls around $1 billion.
Using Azuro’s first airdrop of 3% of the total token amount as a benchmark, PolyMarket’s airdrop should account for 3~5% of the total token amount, which is 3~50 million US dollars. According to Dune data, there are about 40,000 active users recently. Each user will receive an airdrop reward of 750~1,250 US dollars on average, and the PolyMarket interaction cost is very low, making it an airdrop opportunity with a very high investment-to-reward ratio.
Number of active users
PolyMarket interactive participation
Next, the author will introduce how to participate in PolyMarket interaction:
1.Register
https://polymarket.com/
Go to the PolyMarket webpage and click the Sign up link in the upper right corner to register for wallet and email.
2. Deposit money into PolyMarket
Click Deposit in the upper right corner to see the stored value page as shown below. You can recharge USDC from the exchange or on-chain wallet as chips for betting, or you can use a credit card to purchase directly here.
3. Participate in betting
On the homepage, you can select the market type and find your favorite bet (taking the US election as an example). You can buy or sell the Yes/No results of the candidate's election. You can place orders using market price, limit price and AMM.
The author believes that you can participate in the interaction moderately. Even if you don’t want to wait for the results, selling in the middle can still accumulate trading volume and gain airdrop expectations.
Conclusion: The prediction market embodies the truth, bet big and win airdrops at the same time!
In an era of complex news media and information, algorithms can be controlled, and powerful people have monopolized a lot of inside information. It seems that the prediction market can more effectively reflect the truth and public opinions. Through the analysis in this article, we can see that PolyMarket is the leading project in the current prediction market. Participating in the interaction can not only win airdrop opportunities at a low cost, but also make huge bets to win profits. However, it should be noted that this type of gaming track is more sensitive and more susceptible to the influence of government supervision, as well as the occasional black swan event in the prediction market. It is recommended to control risks and participate with caution!
A must-do for big-name projects: Preparing for Supra’s mainnet
Supra is an L1 blockchain compatible with MultiVM, allowing developers to run smart contracts of any ecology on it. It supports up to 500,000 transactions per second, provides the general flexibility of L2 and comes with complete blockchain integration functions. , including oracles, cross-chains, etc. Supra is led by CoinBase Ventures and Animoca Brands with a US$24 million investment. It has great potential in terms of application and financing background, and has attracted the attention of many gamers.
Supra Financing Background
Last year, the author continued to track the interaction of this project. Supra recently announced that it will be launched on the main network, and based on the snapshot airdrop data on 10/17, Supra divided the 250 Millon additional $SUPRA airdrop into 3 levels (30%, 30%, 40 %), allocated to the top 10%, 11%-30%, 31%-100% of users. Before waiting for the airdrop to go online, the author will prepare the following for readers.
1. Complete all questions in the 76th week on the Supra official website and receive the badge of the 76th week. This badge is a necessary condition for participation after the mainnet is launched.
For complete answers to the questions, please refer to this website: https://cryptobunkie.com/supra-mission-answers/
2. Airdrop pre-registration and collection
https://supra.com/blastoff/tokens
Link the Starkey wallet to bind the airdrop, and you can choose 15 or 30 months to unlock the tokens. Please refer to the official website for different conditions. Those who do not choose will automatically join the 30-month linear unlocking plan.
Airdrop pre-registration and collection
Featured Project Interaction: Unichain Node Deployment
Unichain is the Unichain released by UniSwap as introduced in last week's weekly report as its exclusive L2 service. It connects to Ethereum by issuing L2 to enjoy the security of Ethereum, and migrates UniSwap's Defi service to Unichain to obtain more High throughput provides a faster and more convenient transaction experience.
Unichain moved the application out of Ethereum and built it on its own L2, sacrificing some of the interaction possibilities with other Ethereum ecosystems, but gaining more control over the block space, not only improving performance, but also through sorting The server can obtain higher economic benefits from the chain, but the operation of the Unichain blockchain is indispensable for the efforts of nodes and pledge validators.
Unichain node
Uniswap expects to distribute 60% of the tokens to the community, and there are still some unallocated airdrop shares. Therefore, the author believes that it is very likely that Unichain will be airdropped to testnet users and node validators after it is launched. Last week, the author introduced Unichain’s testnet interaction in the weekly report. This article will explain how to operate Unichain node verification.
Unichain official node tutorial: https://docs.unichain.org/docs/getting-started/set-up-a-node
If you don’t understand the above official node teaching, you can also refer to @Wuming_Mr_’s node deployment guide: https://x.com/Wuming_Mr_/status/1845291735254994998
$UNI Token Distribution
If you still feel it is too complicated and don’t know how to operate it, you can use the Easy Node website and pay for the lazy deployment method. Click on Unichain on the Easy Node website as shown below, then set the time and quantity to complete the deployment. After completion You can view the information of your own nodes in Nodefolio.
Easy Node
Node deployment
Emerging Project Ambush: Aspecta
Aspecta is an AI-driven network issued for early builders and projects. Its main functions are trading airdrop shares, whitelists and project points, etc. It is somewhat similar to WhalesMarket, a type of pre-market market, but it uses "KEY" to make products. For transactions, according to buying and holding KEY of different projects, you can obtain project airdrops, which are proportional to the holding quantity and duration. And Aspecta has a points system. You can get points for buying and selling transactions, and you can eat more projects and Aspecta's potential airdrops.
Aspecta is the 7th phase project of the Binance Labs incubator, with US$3.5 million in investment led by Hashkey and ZhenFund. It is preparing to snapshot the airdrop of the first batch of projects in early November. You can join the ambush opportunity as early as possible. The interactive process is attached below.
Aspecta Financing Background
1. Register for Aspecta and go to the Aspecta official website to link to wallet registration.
2. After completion, you will see the page as shown below. There are popular project keys that are being traded and projects that are about to be listed. You can get project airdrops and Aspecta points by buying and selling.
Aspecta Home Page
3. Take the currently most popular Sphere as an example. Click in to check your own short investment price and KEY price chart. On the right, you can directly use the asset of the linked wallet to buy ($BNB), or you can use it as a meme currency to trade at low prices. Buy high and sell hype.
4. The current market transaction volume is small, so you need to pay attention to the liquidity risk of large funds.
Aspecta trading page
Project with financing potential: Ready Player me
Ready Player Me is a cross-application Web3 avatar platform. Users can generate their own avatar on the platform and use this avatar in other programs. It is designed to help users establish virtual identities in Web3. Ready Player Me raised US$69 million led by A16z and Samsung Next, which is a very high amount of financing. Although it has been a long time, the author believes that high financing and PFP avatars are widely used in Web3, and can also cooperate with many industries in Web2 as one of the ways for them to integrate into the metaverse. Refer to BAYC, Azuki, etc. when NFT was first launched. , we can know that Web3 has a strong need for identity recognition, and Ready Player Me has great potential.
Ready Player Me Financing Background
Ready Player Me has recently opened a points activity. Users can earn points by completing designated tasks. Currently, they are all cost-free social tasks. Although Ready Player Me has not yet announced an airdrop plan, in the light of the above-mentioned market demand and With high financing, the author still recommends everyone to participate in self-defense. The detailed interaction process is as follows.
1. Register Ready Player Me
https://social-hub.readyplayer.me/modules/starthere
2. Complete the Start with Socials task
As shown in the picture below, there are currently 7 social tasks. After completion, you can receive Sticker rewards and 2,000 points. The author expects to redeem vouchers for early supporters such as NFT in the future.
3.Daily Claim
You can get 100 points by checking in every day.
4.Competition & Player Zero Quest
Earn points by completing continuously updated social tasks.
Ready Player Me Interaction
Airdrop blessing inquiry
1.$AIX
https://alienxchain.io/claim-aix
Alinex is a Layer 3 project led by OKX with a US$17 million investment, with a valuation of more than US$200 million. It was developed on Arbitrum, and 65% of the tokens will be airdropped to the community, nodes and developers as rewards. Ailenx has released the first quarter airdrop to testnet and mainnet participants on 10/23 TGE.
2.DBR
https://debridge.foundation/checker
Debridge Finance established a foundation and issued the first quarter airdrop of $DBR. In the first quarter, 6% of the total amount of $DBR will be airdropped to project participants. Inquiries will be open in August and can be claimed this week. $DBR has been listed on Bitget, Kucoin, Gate, MEXC and other exchanges.
3.BitSmiley
https://www.bitsmiley.io/airdrop
BitSmile Labs open testnet air investment qualification inquiry, those who have participated in Trumeme activities and testnet activities before can check it out. For detailed rules of each airdrop, please refer to the website description in the link.
Dear reader, you may be thinking: "Where can I learn and see these in-depth analysis methods and precious information sharing?"
Click the link below to learn together!
https://da.studio/
