In the past week, the market fluctuated between $65,000 and $69,000. On the 28th, BTC started to rise at the support level of $67,600 and broke through $70,000 in the early morning of the 29th. Although the short-selling counterattack caused the BTC price to fall back for a short time, the upward momentum of BTC remained unabated. At 10:00 on the 29th, the BTC price reached a maximum of $71,587, a 24-hour increase of 5.6%. As of the publication of this article, the BTC price fluctuated around $71,000 (the above data is from Binance spot, 15:00 on October 29).
Based on the intensified market FOMO sentiment, the boost from the rise of US stocks and the rising chances of Trump's victory, BTC may hit a new high before the election. Of course, profit-taking after the election results are announced may put some pressure on BTC prices, but regardless of the election results, BTC is more likely to hit a new high in the current context.
Market Review
A big week for macro data, a series of important data may affect the subsequent development of multiple markets
This week is a big week for macro data, with a series of important data to be released, including the JOLTS job vacancies report on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Wednesday and the initial value of the US third quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the core PCE price index on Thursday, and the non-farm payrolls data on Friday. Investors are advised to pay close attention to macro data and adjust their positions in a timely manner.
The financial reports of technology giants are entering a climax, and their performance directly affects market sentiment
Recently, the US stock market has been performing well, and the market generally believes that the rise of the US stock market is intrinsically related to the rise of BTC. On the 28th, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising by 0.35%, 0.72% and 0.37% respectively. The earnings season of US tech giants will also enter its climax, and with the disclosure of the performance of giants such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple, it may directly affect market sentiment.
Tether responds to Wall Street Journal report, USDT price returns to anchor price
On the 25th, Eastern Time, the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. government's investigation into Tether. As soon as the news came out, USDT briefly fell below the anchor price and put pressure on the entire cryptocurrency market. From the 26th to now, Tether CEO has responded and denied the report. Since there was no further confirmed news over the weekend, the price of USDT also returned to a level slightly below the anchor price.
Trump’s overall poll approval rating has risen significantly, and his company Trump Media Technology has increased by more than 20%.
As the seven key swing states in the United States increase their bets on Trump, Trump's overall poll support rate has risen significantly. The latest data from Polymarket shows that Trump's predicted chance of winning the election is 66.3%, while Harris's is 33.7%. RCP poll data shows that Trump and Harris' probabilities of winning are 48.5% and 48.4% respectively. At the same time, at the close of U.S. stocks on the 28th, Trump Media Technology, a company under Trump, rose by more than 20%. Many markets are already making preparations for Trump's election, and the popularity of options in the crypto market has increased significantly.
BTC candle chart shows an upward indicator, and analysts believe that BTC price has returned to the upward channel
TradingShot, a technical chart analyst at TradingView, said, “BTC broke through its 7-month bearish megaphone pattern last week” and “BTC has re-entered the important support level of the 50-week moving average.” This means that Bitcoin has successfully broken away from the downward trend during this period and is expected to restart a new upward cycle. Historical data shows that the price of BTC is often affected by the 50-week moving average. In the past period of time, the 50-week moving average has repeatedly served as a support level for Bitcoin prices.
At the same time, a MACD golden cross appeared on BTC’s weekly chart. A MACD golden cross is usually seen as a bullish signal, indicating that there may be a significant increase in prices in the future.
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Although there is a possibility of short-term fluctuations in BTC, analysts are generally optimistic about the future development prospects of BTC. As the development of BTC ETF further promotes the popularization of BTC, and BTC gradually becomes the mainstream choice in corporate investment allocation, the BTC liquidity siphon effect may become more apparent.
In the current market, investors can try to cover multiple assets to reduce the impact of black swan events, and satellite strategies may be a good choice. For example, comprehensively plan the asset ratio of crypto assets and traditional safe-haven assets (gold), and then make detailed plans for crypto asset investments. Based on their own risk tolerance and financial planning, determine the stable returns and risk-return ratio. While obtaining stable and rational returns, make reasonable investment plans for currency-based and gold-based value-added.
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Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
