The first thing is the small non-farm data and the third quarter core PCE to be released tomorrow night.
Judging from the current expected value, the number of ADP employment has dropped by 30,000 from the previous value. This is a good data for interest rate cuts and bad for the US economy. It shows that economic activities are shrinking and employment demand is weakening. The US economy is at risk of a hard landing! It is a good data for interest rate cuts!
The core PCE data for the third quarter was expected to be 2.1%, and the previous value was 2.8%, which is a major victory in controlling inflation, which is good news!
The second thing is the September core PCE data and the number of initial jobless claims for the week to be released on Thursday evening:
The expected value shows that the number of initial unemployment claims in the week of October 26 increased by 6,000 from the previous value, which shows that the number of unemployed people has an increasing trend, which echoes the small non-farm data on Wednesday night. It is a small positive for the interest rate cut and can be ignored!
The core PCE annual rate data in September is the highlight, with the previous value of 2.7% and the expected value of 2.6%. It also fell slightly by 1 basis point month-on-month. This is also a small good news. At least the core PCE data did not rebound, and even fell slightly, further proving that inflation is under control!
The third thing is the big non-farm data on Friday night, which is the highlight of this week:
The expected unemployment rate in the United States in October is 4.1%, which is consistent with the previous value, but the expected non-farm employment population is only 12.3, which is consistent with the small non-farm data. Although the unemployment rate is still strong, it is an indisputable fact that the number of employed people has dropped sharply!
This big non-agricultural data can also be interpreted as a major positive! Because the expected value of non-agricultural employment population dropped by 131,000 people compared with the previous value!
The above three things are all expected to be favorable for interest rate cuts, so the Fed’s interest rate cut at 3:00 a.m. on November 8 is a foregone conclusion! The expected values are definitely favorable!
Therefore, before the US election, the market fundamentals were unsealed, ushering in the strongest rebound momentum in the year!
The November 5 election is a troublemaker, but before the election officially lands, it is also a great positive, because the market is currently flooded with polls of Trump's election! Before it really lands, this is a major positive stimulus for Comrade Jianguo, who is friendly to the crypto circle!
The peak of this round of rebound is estimated to occur around November 3rd-11.5th, and there is a high possibility that the harvest will be completed before the interest rate is implemented on July 8th!
So if you are still hesitating and wavering, you can be bolder in the next two days, and you have to be more cautious in the next two days!
The big rhythm is established, and you just need to find the buying and selling points in the small cycle. Don’t be afraid! After being afraid for a year, now let’s follow the Americans and have fun!
Voters need to see a "bright future" so that they will be willing to enthusiastically participate in this feast!
Are you ready for this year's epic market performance?
