Bitcoin's current market momentum is fueled by bullish election sentiment and growing market liquidity.
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel highlights Bitcoin’s positive correlation with money supply and weakening dollar trends.
BTC may rally further as Fed policy shifts, M2 supply grows, and potential U.S. debt downgrades loom.
Bitcoin’s price is seeing a strong upward trend, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency once again crossing $68,000 as market optimism grows around the upcoming U.S. election. The recent momentum positions BTC for a potential rally, as noted by VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets, Matthew Sigel, who emphasized a “bullish setup” for Bitcoin as investors align with pro-crypto sentiment surrounding the election.
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BTC’s recent rise to $68,800 marks a more than 55% year-to-date increase, extending to over 100% in the past year. According to Sigel, the price pattern Bitcoin is following resembles its pre-2020 election performance, characterized by low volatility before a high-activity surge after a winner was announced. This setup points to the likelihood of heightened demand for BTC, particularly if the election outcome favors a more pro-crypto candidate.
Pro-Crypto Sentiment Fuels Bitcoin Price Action
Market speculation has intensified with recent betting odds placing Donald Trump as the frontrunner, currently polling at 66%. Trump’s alignment with pro-crypto policies could draw more buyers into the market, strengthening Bitcoin’s position amid electoral uncertainties. Sigel highlighted Bitcoin’s positive correlation with both M2 money supply growth and pro-crypto political landscapes, reinforcing this trend.
While BTC’s correlation with the dollar remains negative, a critical factor in Bitcoin’s recent surge has been the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance. Sigel noted that the Fed’s pivot, combined with diminishing sell-offs, particularly from sources such as the German government, points to increased liquidity in the market. A softening dollar and growing demand indicate stronger buying conditions for BTC, further supported by potential money supply reacceleration.
Potential U.S. Debt Downgrade Adds Bullish Momentum
In addition to election and liquidity factors, Sigel highlighted Moody’s impending decision on the U.S. sovereign debt rating, which could bring further market impact.
Bitcoin’s next test remains the $70,000 mark as market watchers look for whether BTC will sustain this bullish trajectory before November’s election. The cryptocurrency’s price pattern suggests that further volatility may emerge, reinforcing its correlation to both money supply trends and political shifts.
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