Rumors about the collapse of U.S. Treasuries are constantly emerging in the market. I asked GPT about several triggering conditions for the collapse of U.S. Treasuries and would like to share them with everyone:

1. Uncontrolled U.S. Fiscal Deficit

If the U.S. government continues to borrow heavily and the fiscal deficit is severely out of control, investors may lose confidence in U.S. Treasuries. This would lead to a decrease in demand for U.S. Treasuries in the market, causing prices to fall and yields to rise. Doubts about the government's ability to repay its debts could increase the risk premium of U.S. Treasuries and ultimately lead to a debt crisis.

2. U.S. Economic Recession

If the U.S. economy severely contracts, government tax revenue will decrease and the ability to repay debts will weaken, affecting confidence in U.S. Treasury payments. Moreover, if the economy remains sluggish for a long time, the Federal Reserve or the government may find it difficult to stimulate the economy through traditional monetary or fiscal policies, thereby increasing pressure on U.S. Treasuries.

3. Uncontrolled Inflation

If inflation spirals out of control, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt more aggressive interest rate hike policies to curb inflation, leading to a plummet in U.S. Treasury prices. High inflation will increase the actual debt burden, while rising bond yields will decrease the market value of existing bonds, causing investors to rush to sell U.S. Treasuries.

4. Erosion of the Dollar's Status

U.S. Treasuries rely on the dollar's status as an international reserve currency. If the geopolitical status of the U.S. declines, or if other economies (such as China or the European Union) rise, resulting in damage to the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, it would reduce demand for U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a depreciation of the dollar and a wave of U.S. Treasury sell-offs, thereby accelerating the collapse of U.S. Treasuries.

5. Collapse of Global Investor Confidence

If a major event triggers global doubts about U.S. credit, such as political turmoil, a financial crisis, or severe fiscal policy mistakes, global investors may lose confidence and sell U.S. Treasuries on a large scale. This would lead to increased volatility in the bond market and ultimately trigger collapse risks.

6. Missteps in Federal Reserve Policy

The Federal Reserve is a significant supporter of the U.S. Treasury market, especially during special periods like the pandemic when it purchases a large amount of U.S. Treasuries through quantitative easing. If the Federal Reserve makes significant errors in policy, such as tapering too early or aggressive rate hikes, it could lead to severe turmoil in the U.S. Treasury market and trigger a sell-off.