Written by: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
As the US election is drawing to a close, the future direction of the crypto market, which is greatly affected by the US political and economic situation, has become a focus of close attention in the market recently.
Will the price of Bitcoin break through the new high as expected? Will the price of Ethereum remain weak? Will the Solana ecosystem Meme coin craze continue? Will the altcoin market gradually pick up? Odaily Planet Daily will organize and analyze the situation of the US election and the current views of the crypto market in this article for readers' reference.
Latest polls: Trump is temporarily in the lead, Harris is following closely
Overall, Republican presidential candidate Trump is currently leading in election support, but his lead is small; Democratic presidential candidate and current U.S. Vice President Harris is slightly behind in support.
A brief analysis of the US election rules: 270 electoral votes are key
According to the rules of the US presidential election, each of the 50 states has a certain number of electoral votes, a total of 538 nationwide, and the candidate who wins 270 or more will win. Except for two states (Nebraska and Maine), all states adopt the "winner takes all" rule, that is, once a candidate wins more votes in a state, he or she will get all the electoral votes in that state. Most states overwhelmingly support one party, so the focus of the election usually falls on a dozen states where the two sides are evenly matched, the so-called "swing states."
Looking at past U.S. elections, the key to success or failure lies in the seven "swing states," with a total of 94 electoral votes, and their results will determine who will take over the presidency.
Latest poll: Trump's approval rating reaches 52%
The latest poll shows that Trump is ahead of Harris, with 52% of voters supporting Trump's election as US president.
Earlier news, Trump led Harris with 47% support in the Wall Street Journal poll to 45%.
In the latest poll conducted by the Financial Times, Trump is ahead of Harris on the US economy.
The latest betting information from the crypto prediction market Polymarket shows that Trump has a 60.7% chance of winning and Harris has a 39.4% chance of winning.
According to the official website of RCP, a well-known American political election website, it is currently predicted that the Trump/Vance combination is expected to win more key votes in swing states, and may eventually win 312 electoral votes and ultimately win the election.
US election voting base forecast results
Market View: Trump's election victory rate is highly correlated with the price trend of crypto assets
Previously, Intern, head of growth at Monad, wrote that the Trump victory rate curve on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with the price trend of Bitcoin.
The accompanying chart trend selected relevant data from March to October this year
QCP Capital previously pointed out in a report that as Trump's chances of winning the election increase, the market expects his crypto policies to be more friendly than Harris', and the positive correlation between crypto assets and Trump's victory is further strengthened.
As Galaxy Research has previously analyzed, although Harris is friendlier than the current President Biden on cryptocurrency policy, she is far inferior to Trump in market opinion. After all, Harris promised to improve the regulatory environment of the US crypto industry, but took a more cautious stance on issues such as taxation, Bitcoin mining and self-custody, while Trump supported Bitcoin mining and promised to protect the right to self-custody.
Bitfinex Alpha's research report also pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin price movements and Trump's election probability has increased, and the cryptocurrency market has shown greater sensitivity to the US election as investors assess the potential impact of the Republican victory on future crypto regulations. In addition, the open interest (OI) of Bitcoin perpetual contracts and futures contracts soared to a record high of more than $40 billion, reflecting increased speculative activity, indicating that most of the current price movements are driven by leveraged futures positions rather than spot market demand.
The "key man" behind the candidates: Musk spent $75 million, Bill Gates spent $50 million
The U.S. presidential election naturally involves not only political choices, but also all aspects of the U.S. economy. The key to winning the election is also crucial in terms of support in terms of funds, resources, momentum, etc. By counting the "key men" behind Trump and Harris, we may also be able to get a glimpse of the wind direction preferences in the U.S. political and economic fields.
Musk: The first person to cheer for Trump
Previously, according to the US Federal Election Commission documents, Elon Musk donated $75 million to the American Political Action Committee that supports Trump. Not only that, last Thursday, Musk also went to the swing state of Pennsylvania to give a promotional speech for Trump's presidential campaign; then, he called on Pennsylvania voters to express their support for Trump through various campaign signs, and announced at an event that from that day (October 19) to November 5, the US election day, he will randomly distribute $1 million every day to a registered voter in Pennsylvania who signed the "American Political Action Committee (America PAC)" petition. The first winner of the day has been born.
It has to be said that Musk contributed money, people and effort to Trump's campaign. No wonder Trump said before: "Thank you Elon Musk, he gave me the best support."
Bill Gates: Privately donated about $50 million to Harris campaign
Bill Gates, the former richest man in the U.S. who has been out of politics for decades, has privately said he recently donated about $50 million to Future Forward, a nonprofit supporting Vice President Harris' campaign. The donation was made in secret. In private calls with friends and others this year, Gates has expressed concerns about the prospect of Trump being re-elected as president, even as he stressed that he could work with either candidate, according to a person familiar with his thinking.
Billionaire Bill Ackman: If Trump is elected, I will do everything I can to help
Billionaire Bill Ackman said that Harris and Trump are like the best candidates in the world. It is too difficult to choose because they are too outstanding. If Trump is elected president, there will be many very capable businessmen who will want to join the government and will do their best to help him, but they will not be members of the government. He believes that Trump (if elected president) will not have any problems in assembling a very capable team.
a16z founders: Donated $2.5 million each to Trump campaign
According to the latest documents submitted to the Federal Election Commission, a16z founders and venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz each donated $2.5 million to a pro-Trump super PAC. The two announced their support for Trump in July. Andreessen also donated an additional $844,600 to Trump's campaign and the Republican Party, which is the federal government's limit.
Billionaire Tim Draper: Hedging his bets, similar donation amounts
Billionaire American venture capitalist Tim Draper previously issued a statement to clarify: "I have donated to both Harris and Trump's campaigns, and the amounts are roughly equal, which allows my wife and I to meet both candidates and make a more informed decision. Both candidates have the right starting points, and although they will set different paths for the United States, I am optimistic that either path will be a positive step. I support both candidates."
In general, crypto industry-friendly people are more supportive of Trump; while people associated with traditional venture capital institutions are more inclined to hedge their bets or support Harris.
Market view: Most people think that Trump's victory will be good for cryptocurrencies, while a few believe that the final winner will promote the development of cryptocurrencies
Looking at the current market views, most research institutions and related organizations are optimistic about the development of the crypto market after Trump takes office; a small number of people believe that both Trump and Harris will promote the further development of the crypto industry after taking office; but there are also very few opinions that Trump’s victory may lead to a decline in the crypto market.
Traditional institutions: optimistic about the crypto market after Trump takes office
A sweeping Republican victory in the upcoming U.S. election would be the most favorable outcome for Coinbase and the broader crypto market, while a Harris win and a split Congress could lead to greater uncertainty in the digital asset industry, Citigroup said in a research report.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said Bitcoin is showing strong upward momentum and could approach its all-time high of $73,800 before the U.S. election. Potential price increases are driven by a variety of factors, including a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and rising odds of Trump winning the election. Current data shows that Trump's chances of winning are 56.3%, and the probability of a full Republican victory is 39%, which could create favorable conditions for risk assets including Bitcoin. In addition, open interest in $80,000 call options in the Bitcoin options market has also increased recently, indicating that institutional investors are bullish on Bitcoin's medium-term upside potential.
BNP Paribas said in a report that the outcome of the U.S. election early next month will determine the dollar's near-term outlook. If Republican candidate Trump becomes president and the Republican Party controls Congress, it will be the most positive outcome for the dollar.
Crypto enthusiasts: Trump will help push Bitcoin prices to $100,000
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategy at crypto asset management company Bitwise, predicts that if Trump wins the US presidential election in November, the price of Bitcoin could rise to $92,000. He said that based on a chart of Bitcoin prices and Trump's odds of winning on Polymarket and applying some "merger arbitrage-style probability math", the results show that Bitcoin prices are likely to soar after Trump wins the election. In addition, Erik Finman, an early Bitcoin investor, said he believes that Trump's victory could push Bitcoin prices to $100,000, "His policies will ignite the crypto market and drive substantial growth across the board."
Augustine Fan, director of SOFA.org, said: “As attention comes into focus on the results of the US election, the most positive outcome for cryptocurrencies would be a Trump victory coupled with a Republican sweep of the House and Senate, making it possible for the Trump-Vance-backed digital asset reform plan to pass Congress.” Jung added: “If Trump’s dominance continues and the Fed sends more dovish signals, we may see renewed momentum for Bitcoin in the weeks following these events.”
Alex Svanevik, CEO of blockchain analysis company Nansen, argues that the first condition for 2025 to be the biggest bull market in history is that Trump wins the presidential election.
Neutral view: Whoever is elected will lead to economic risks and market declines
Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that while some believe a Trump win would be a headwind for economic growth and the stock market, a Harris win could lead to a Wall Street disappointment. Polls show a 50% chance of that happening. But Wilson noted the risk of a market decline that could also come with a Trump win.
Analysts at Presto, a trading and financial services company, said the U.S. election could trigger a bond market crash, which would also have an impact on other assets such as Bitcoin. Jones said he is bullish on Bitcoin, gold, commodities and Nasdaq stocks in the current risk environment. Analysts believe that both Republican candidate Trump and Democrat Harris have pledged "fiscal profligacy," leading to rising government debt levels, which has increased the risk of a bond market crash. In addition, the (2024 Bitcoin Act), which is currently awaiting congressional approval, could help stabilize U.S. debt and could even stabilize the global financial system.
Neutral view: Whoever wins will benefit the crypto industry
“The post-election environment should be favorable for potential crypto IPOs, regardless of who wins,” said Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at crypto venture capital fund Dragonfly Capital. He said that while Trump may push the SEC to take a more pro-crypto stance, Harris will likely “replace Gensler with someone of her own choice, which should result in a more moderate approach to cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S.”
David Lawant, head of research at cryptocurrency market maker FalconX, said, "I think the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the outcome of the election, and our analysis shows that the market's options activity around the upcoming election shows a clear bullish bias." Republican candidate and former President Trump publicly supported cryptocurrencies, so much so that Bitcoin is seen as a so-called "Trump trade." His Democratic opponent, current Vice President Harris, has pledged to support a regulatory framework for the industry, which contrasts with the Biden administration's crackdown on the industry. Non-political factors such as further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as fueling optimism.
Mick Mulvaney, who served as acting White House chief of staff during the Trump administration, said cryptocurrency is an industry that "breaks the mold" of American politics because it appeals to both Democrats and Republicans.
Opposing view: Harris will become an obstacle to more crypto ETF applications
Two ETF experts said that if Democratic presidential candidate Harris wins the November election, the XRP and SOL ETF applications may not come to fruition. "If Harris wins, it won't be approved no matter who the issuer is," said Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg. Some industry experts believe that when asset management giant BlackRock joined the race to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it greatly improved the chances of the SEC approving them - although it is unclear how much role BlackRock actually played.
Balchunas said that if former President Trump wins the election, there will be a “considerable chance” that more cryptocurrency ETFs will emerge, whether or not BlackRock joins Bitwise, VanEck and other firms looking to expand crypto ETFs beyond BTC and ETH.
Opposition view: Trump's deal brings obstacles to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin's rise cools down
U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have risen sharply recently as Trump leads Harris in the prediction market. Investors are curbing bets on loose monetary policy because if Trump wins the election, he will implement growth-boosting measures for the already strong U.S. economy. Bitcoin saw its first weekly decline in three weeks as financial conditions tightened relatively.
IG Australia market analysts said that the stock market sell-off, the higher dollar and rising yields all mean a tightening financial environment. This is not good for cryptocurrencies. Some people will point out that the financial environment was loose from the beginning, but what is more important is the speed of tightening. The co-founder of Orbit Markets, a provider of liquidity for digital asset derivatives trading, said that if Trump wins, it may lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields and ultimately have a negative impact on risky assets. However, the expected softening of the Trump administration's regulation of the crypto industry should still be a more important factor.
Conclusion: Before the election, Bitcoin may pull back and then rise
At present, Trump's victory is more likely. In addition to the eager anticipation of the crypto industry, the traditional financial market is also "warm" - according to Barclays Bank, European stock markets have already reflected the possibility of Trump's victory. The company said that since the beginning of this spring, a basket of European exporters, that is, those companies most vulnerable to tariffs, have lagged behind the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index by 15%. To some extent, European stock markets have priced in Trump's victory.
Data from Polymarket, which is a “crypto weathervane”, also supports this possibility. Users Fredi 9999, Theo 4, PrincessCaro and Michie invested a total of US$30 million, betting that Trump will win the 2024 presidential election; another Polymarket user zxgngl recently bet more than $5 million on Trump's victory. The analysis points out that an influx of more than $35 million in bets may have contributed to the recent significant improvement in Trump's victory margin.
While venture capitalist and Polymarket seed investor Alex Marinier said it’s entirely possible that “some big players are making big bets that are swaying the market,” Tarek Mansour, founder of prediction market Kalshi, recently argued that the results are accurate and not the result of manipulation by providing comparable data from Kalshi. “The median bet for Harris is higher than Trump’s,” he said, with Harris’ median bet being $85 compared to Trump’s $58. More and more people on the platform are betting on Trump to win, and the 20-point lead reflected on Polymarket roughly matches the number of people who have been betting on Trump to win. Based on the current total bets of more than $2.4 billion on Polymarket, perhaps Trump’s chances of winning are clearly shown under this data.
Thanks to a series of crypto-friendly remarks made by Trump, combined with the gradual spread and diffusion of various positive news before the election, the crypto market, including Bitcoin, may experience a brief correction and then rise again or even reach new highs.
