On Friday (October 25), the dollar index retreated to 104.05, gold prices held firm at $2735, and Bitcoin surged past $68,000. A loud explosion was heard again in the Middle East as Israel bombarded Gaza and Lebanon, accused of committing 'genocide' once more. U.S. economic data was mixed, with S&P PMI exceeding expectations, but U.S. employment numbers saw a slight decline for the third month in a row.
Israel's intense bombardment of Gaza and Lebanon.
Al Jazeera reports that Israeli tanks bombarded the overwhelmed Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza and sprayed the hospital with machine gun fire, with the military arresting most of the doctors, leading to life-saving surgeries being halted. Israel attacked a shelter converted from a school in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, resulting in at least 17 Palestinian deaths, including an 11-month-old baby, and 42 injuries.
According to AP News, at the time of the attack, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Israel had achieved its goal of effectively dismantling Hamas, and negotiations regarding a ceasefire and the release of dozens of Israeli hostages will resume in the 'coming days.'
According to the Oda Hospital, which received the injured, the attack also caused 42 injuries in the Nuseirat refugee camp. Records from the hospital show that among the deceased, there are 13 children under the age of 18 and 3 women.
The Israeli military claims its attack targets Hamas militants inside schools but has provided no evidence. In recent months, Israel has attacked several schools converted into shelters, claiming that its targets are militants hiding among civilians. Attacks often result in the deaths of women and children.
In the last 24 hours, Israeli forces have caused at least 19 deaths in Lebanon, bringing the total death toll since the war began to 2,593. The Gaza government's news office stated that Israel's military attacks on Jabalia and the blockade of northern Gaza have entered their 20th day, resulting in over 770 Palestinian deaths and 1,000 injuries.
The U.S.-based Jewish Voice for Peace is calling for the U.S. government to impose an arms embargo on Israel, comparing its war on Gaza to 'genocide.' The organization stated in a statement, 'Many of our parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents survived or perished in Nazi death marches, and we all grew up in the shadow of the Holocaust. The Israeli state is currently committing genocide, deliberately carrying out mass killings of the Palestinian people using weapons provided by the U.S.'
U.S. economic data mixed, dollar shows profit-taking.
The dollar's recent retreat is attributed to profit-taking after the U.S. released mixed economic data, although the preview data for the U.S. S&P PMI issued positive signals indicating strong business activity, the dollar still fell and is expected to consolidate in the next trading day.
The U.S. October preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI is 54.3, slightly above expectations, with the services PMI expanding to 55.3 while manufacturing has contracted for the third consecutive month.
Despite the overall improvement in PMI, U.S. employment numbers have seen a slight decline for the third consecutive month, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the upcoming presidential election.
The U.S. Department of Labor stated on Thursday that for the week ending October 19, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 15,000 to 227,000 after seasonal adjustment. The decrease in jobless claims due to Hurricane Helen offset the surge in claims caused by Hurricane Milton.
The Federal Reserve Watch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on November 7.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year benchmark rate remains below the peak of around 4.20% reached on Wednesday.
Dollar Technical Analysis
FXStreet analyst Patricio Martín stated that after the dollar index surged above the 200-day moving average, buying momentum weakened, indicating overextension.
According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the index is preparing for sideways consolidation to alleviate overbought conditions.
Key support levels include 104.50, 104.30, and 104.00, with resistance levels at 104.70, 104.90, and 105.00.
Gold Technical Analysis
FXEmpire analyst Bruce Powers stated that gold prices reached a new high of $2758 earlier on Thursday before reversing. Subsequently, sellers took control, pushing the price below the previous day's low of $2719, with gold closing at that point. This indicates a short-term bearish price action, which typically leads to a degree of pullback. The extent of the pullback will help provide clues about the potential strength or weakness of gold. On Friday, gold prices rebounded to $2735.
Note that the resistance level is near the combination of the 250% extension retracement level at $2754 and the upper rising parallel trend channel line. However, considering the potential for higher targets, gold is expected to continue rising above this week's highs after a period of consolidation or pullback. On October 15, after the last test of the 20-day moving average as support, gold recently broke through a bullish flag pattern.
The measured target of the flag pattern points to a final target of $2815, but it is not only the flag that identifies this price area; two other Fibonacci measurements confirm this price zone. One points to $2797, and the other points to $2808. These price levels together create a potential upward target area from $2797 to $2815.
An internal daily breakout, whether upward or downward, will point to the next direction, rather than a false signal. Friday's high or resistance level is at $2743, with the low at $2714. More importantly, Wednesday's high of $2758 and low of $2709 provide more significant price levels to gauge strength. The key support level is the recent trend breakout area at $2686 and the 20-day moving average at $2670, both of which could provide strong support.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
CoinTelegraph noted that on October 22, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF inflow recorded a net negative value of $79.1 million for the first time in two weeks, following a 3% drop in Bitcoin's price the previous day. Although the community expected institutional investors to experience a period of calm, data shows that ETF inflows surged to $192.4 million on October 23.
Positive inflow observed on Bitcoin's negative daily chart, indicating that institutions will maintain a bullish sentiment regardless of short-term declines.
Meanwhile, independent cryptocurrency analyst Moustache elucidated Bitcoin's golden moment indicator, which has recently turned bullish.
Analysts claim that this indicator has successfully predicted the beginning of bull markets four times in the past four years, making it a reliable tool.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin immediately rebounded above $67,000 after presenting a V-shaped pattern from the first order block or demand zone.
For Bitcoin, the most optimistic scenario is that after the cryptocurrency reflects the 'fractal' pattern from July, Bitcoin immediately rises from $64,500.
Currently, Bitcoin's price movement is in line with expectations, gaining further bullish confirmation after breaking above the resistance level of $67,800 on the daily candlestick chart.
