Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
With the US election approaching, the subsequent direction of the crypto market, heavily influenced by US political and economic factors, has become a focus of close market attention.
Can Bitcoin prices break new highs as hoped? Will Ethereum prices continue to show existing weakness? Will the Solana ecosystem's Meme coin craze continue? Can altcoin trends gradually improve? Odaily Planet Daily will organize and analyze the current views on the US election and the crypto market for readers' reference.
Latest polls: Trump currently leads, with Harris closely following.
Overall, Republican presidential candidate Trump currently leads in election support, but the lead is small; Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Harris trails slightly.
Analysis of US election rules: 270 electoral votes are key
According to the rules of the US election, the 50 states have a certain number of electoral votes, totaling 538 nationwide. The candidate who wins 270 or more votes will win. Except for two states (Nebraska and Maine), all states follow a 'winner-takes-all' rule, meaning that once a candidate receives more votes in that state, they will receive all the electoral votes from that state. Most states overwhelmingly support one party, so the focus of the election usually falls on about a dozen states where both sides are evenly matched, known as 'swing states.'
From past US elections, the key to success or failure lies in seven 'swing states' that collectively hold 94 electoral votes, their outcomes will determine the presidency.
Latest poll: Trump's support rate reaches 52%
Latest polls show Trump leading Harris, with 52% of voters supporting Trump's election as US president.
Previously, Trump led Harris with a support rate of 47% in a Wall Street Journal poll, compared to Harris's 45%.
In the latest poll conducted in the UK (Financial Times), Trump leads Harris on the US economy.
The latest betting information from the crypto prediction market Polymarket shows Trump's winning probability at 60.7%, while Harris's is at 39.4%.
According to information from the well-known US political election website RCP, the currently predicted combination of Trump/Vance is expected to capture more key votes in swing states, ultimately potentially winning 312 electoral votes and securing victory.
US Presidential Election Polling Results
Market sentiment: Trump's election victory probability is highly correlated with the price movement of crypto assets.
Previously, Monad’s growth head Intern stated that the curve of Trump's winning probability on Polymarket is highly correlated with Bitcoin price movements.
The accompanying chart tracks relevant data from March to October this year.
QCP Capital previously pointed out in a report that as Trump's winning probability rises, the market expects his crypto policies to be friendlier than Harris's, further strengthening the positive correlation between crypto assets and Trump's victory.
As analyzed by Galaxy Research earlier, although Harris is more crypto-friendly in terms of cryptocurrency policy than current President Biden, she is viewed far less favorably than Trump in market sentiment. After all, Harris has promised to improve the regulatory environment for the US crypto industry but holds a more cautious stance on issues like taxation, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody, whereas Trump supports Bitcoin mining and promises to protect self-custody rights.
Bitfinex Alpha's research report also pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin price movements and Trump's election probability has strengthened, as investors assess the potential impact of a Republican victory on future crypto regulations, leading to a heightened sensitivity of the cryptocurrency market to the US election. Additionally, open interest (OI) on Bitcoin perpetual contracts and futures has surged to a historic high of over $40 billion, reflecting increased speculative activity, indicating that the current price movements are largely driven by leveraged futures positions rather than spot market demand.
The 'key people' behind the candidates: Musk's lavish $75 million donation, Bill Gates' $50 million pressure.
The US presidential election naturally involves not only political choices but also various aspects of the US economy, and the key to victory lies in support in terms of funding, resources, and momentum. By examining the 'key people' behind Trump and Harris, we may glimpse the directional preference in the political and economic fields of the US.
Musk: The 'first person' to cheer for Trump.
Earlier, according to documents from the Federal Election Commission, Elon Musk donated $75 million to a political action committee supporting Trump. Additionally, last Thursday, Musk gave a campaign speech for Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania; subsequently, he urged Pennsylvania voters to express their support for Trump through various campaign signs, and announced at an event that from that day (October 19) until November 5, the day of the US election, he would randomly distribute $1 million to a registered Pennsylvania voter who signed the 'America PAC' petition.
It must be said that Musk has contributed 'money, people, and effort' to Trump's campaign, no wonder Trump previously stated: 'Thank you, Elon Musk, for your best support.'
Bill Gates: Donated about $50 million to Harris's campaign organization privately.
Former US billionaire Bill Gates, who has faded from politics for decades, has privately stated that he recently donated about $50 million to the nonprofit organization Future Forward, which supports Vice President Harris's campaign. This donation was originally intended to be secret. A person familiar with Gates' thoughts revealed that he expressed concerns about Trump's potential re-election during private conversations with friends and others this year, although he emphasized that he could work with any candidate.
Billionaire Bill Ackman: I will do everything I can to help if Trump is elected.
Billionaire Bill Ackman stated that Harris and Trump are like the best candidates in the world, making it difficult to choose because they are both outstanding. If Trump becomes president, many very capable businessmen will want to enter this government, and I will do everything I can to help him, but I will not become a member of the government. He believes that Trump (if elected president) will not have any issues assembling a very capable team.
a16z Founder: Donated $2.5 million to Trump's campaign organization
According to the latest documents submitted to the Federal Election Commission, a16z founder and venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz each donated $2.5 million to a super political action committee supporting Trump. The two had announced their support for Trump back in July. Andreessen also donated an additional $844,600 to Trump’s campaign team and the Republican Party, which is the federal government limit.
Billionaire Tim Draper: Bets on both sides with similar donation amounts.
Billionaire and American venture capitalist Tim Draper previously clarified: 'I have donated to both Harris's and Trump's campaign teams, and the amounts are roughly equal, which allowed my wife and me to meet both candidates and make a more informed decision. Both candidates have the right starting point, and although they will set different paths for America, I optimistically believe that any path will be a positive step. I support both candidates.'
Overall, individuals friendly to the crypto industry are more supportive of Trump; while individuals related to traditional venture capital institutions are more inclined to bet on both sides or support Harris.
Market sentiment: Most believe that Trump's victory is beneficial for crypto, while a minority believe that the eventual winner will both promote crypto development.
Looking at the current market sentiment, most research institutions and related organizations hold an optimistic view on the development of the crypto market under Trump's presidency; a small number believe that whether Trump or Harris wins, they will both promote further development of the crypto industry; yet a very few believe that Trump's victory may lead to a decline in the crypto market.
Traditional institutions: Optimistic about the crypto market under Trump's presidency.
A Citigroup research report stated that in the upcoming US election, if the Republicans achieve a complete victory, it will be the most favorable outcome for Coinbase and the broader crypto market, while a Harris victory and a split Congress could lead to greater uncertainty for the digital asset industry.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin is showing strong upward momentum and may approach the historical high of $73,800 just before the US election. The potential price increase is driven by various factors, including a steepening US Treasury yield curve, the influx of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and rising odds of Trump's victory. Current data shows that Trump's winning probability is 56.3%, and the probability of a Republican sweep is 39%, which may create favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, open interest on $80,000 call options in the Bitcoin options market has recently increased, indicating that institutional investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's medium-term upward potential.
BNP Paribas stated in a report that the outcome of the US election early next month will determine the recent outlook for the dollar. If Republican candidate Trump becomes president and the Republicans control Congress, it will be the most positive outcome for the dollar.
Crypto enthusiasts: Trump will drive Bitcoin prices to $100,000.
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategy at crypto asset management company Bitwise, predicts that if Trump wins the US presidential election in November, Bitcoin's price may rise to $92,000. He stated that based on a chart mapping Bitcoin prices against Trump's winning odds drawn on Polymarket and applying some 'merged arbitrage probability mathematics,' the result shows that after Trump wins the election, Bitcoin prices are very likely to soar. Additionally, early Bitcoin investor Erik Finman stated that he believes Trump's victory could push Bitcoin prices up to $100,000, 'his policies will ignite the crypto market, driving substantial growth across the sector.'
Augustine Fan, head of SOFA.org, stated: 'As attention to the US election outcome becomes the focus, the most positive result for cryptocurrency would be Trump's victory, along with the Republicans sweeping the House and Senate, making Trump-Vance supported digital asset reform plans likely to pass in Congress.' Jung added: 'If Trump's dominance continues and the Federal Reserve sends a more dovish signal, we may see new momentum for Bitcoin in the weeks following these events.'
Alex Svanevik, CEO of blockchain analytics firm Nansen, argued that the primary condition for the largest bull market in history in 2025 is Trump's victory in the presidential election.
Neutral view: Whichever wins will lead to economic risks and market declines.
Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that while some believe Trump's victory will negatively impact economic growth and the stock market, if Harris wins, it could lead to disappointment in Wall Street. Polls indicate that the likelihood of this scenario is 50%. However, Wilson pointed out the risks of a market decline that could also come with Trump's victory.
Analysts from trading and financial services company Presto stated that the US election could trigger a collapse in the bond market, which would also impact other assets like Bitcoin. Jones stated that in the current risk environment, he is optimistic about Bitcoin, gold, commodities, and NASDAQ stocks. Analysts believe that both Republican candidate Trump and Democrat Harris have promised 'fiscal extravagance,' leading to rising government debt levels, which exacerbates the risk of a bond market collapse. Additionally, the pending (2024 Bitcoin bill) awaiting Congressional approval may help stabilize US debt and even stabilize the global financial system.
Neutral view: Whichever wins will benefit the crypto industry.
Crypto venture fund Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi stated: 'Regardless of who wins, the post-election environment should be favorable for potential crypto IPOs.' He said that while Trump may push the SEC to adopt a more supportive stance on cryptocurrencies, Harris may 'replace Gensler with her own chosen people, which should lead to a more lenient cryptocurrency regulation in the US.'
David Lawant, research director at crypto market maker FalconX, stated, 'I believe the market consensus is that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin may perform well, and our analysis shows that market options activity around the upcoming election exhibits a clear bullish bias.' Republican candidate and former President Trump publicly supports cryptocurrency, leading Bitcoin to be viewed as a so-called 'Trump trade.' His Democratic opponent, current Vice President Harris, promises to support a regulatory framework for the industry, contrasting with the Biden administration’s crackdown on the sector. Non-political factors like further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as contributing to the optimism.
Mick Mulvaney, former acting director of the White House Office under Trump’s administration, stated that cryptocurrency is an industry that 'breaks the US political mold' because it appeals to both the Democrats and Republicans.
Opposing View: Harris will become an obstacle to more crypto ETF applications
Two ETF experts stated that if Democratic presidential candidate Harris wins in November, XRP and SOL ETF applications may not yield results. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated, 'If Harris wins, it won’t be approved regardless of who the issuer is.' Some industry experts believe that the entry of asset management giant BlackRock into the competition to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs significantly increases the chances of SEC approval for them—though it remains unclear how much influence BlackRock has actually had. Balchunas stated that if former President Trump wins the election, there would be 'considerable opportunities' for more cryptocurrency ETFs, regardless of whether BlackRock joins Bitwise, VanEck, and other companies hoping to extend crypto ETFs beyond BTC and ETH.
Opposition viewpoint: The Trump trade brings obstacles to cryptocurrency and cools Bitcoin's momentum.
As Trump leads Harris in the prediction market, US Treasury yields and the dollar have recently surged significantly. Investors are suppressing bets on loose monetary policy, as if Trump wins the election, he will implement growth measures on an already robust US economy. With the financial environment relatively tightening, Bitcoin has experienced its first weekly decline in three weeks.
Market analysts from IG Australia stated that stock market sell-offs, a stronger dollar, and rising yields all indicate a tightening financial environment. This is not good for cryptocurrencies. Some may point out that the financial environment was loose from the start, but the speed of tightening is more important. The co-founder of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets stated that if Trump wins, it could lead to higher US Treasury yields and ultimately negatively impact risk assets. However, the anticipated softening of regulatory expectations for the crypto industry under a Trump administration should still be the more significant factor.
Conclusion: Bitcoin may rally after a pullback before the election.
Currently, the call for Trump's victory is high, aside from the crypto industry's eager anticipation, the traditional financial market is also showing signs of warming—according to Barclays Bank, European stock markets have already priced in the possibility of Trump's victory. The company stated that since early spring this year, a basket of European exporters, particularly those most susceptible to tariffs, has underperformed the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index by 15%, to some extent pricing in Trump's victory.
As a 'crypto bellwether,' the data from Polymarket also supports this possibility, with users Fredi 9999, Theo 4, PrincessCaro, and Michie collectively betting $30 million that Trump will win the 2024 presidential election; another Polymarket user, zxgngl, recently wagered over $5 million on Trump's victory. Analysts point out that the influx of over $35 million in bets may have driven Trump's winning odds significantly higher recently.
Although venture capitalist and Polymarket seed round investor Alex Marinier stated that it is entirely possible that 'some big players are making large bets, thereby influencing the market'; the prediction market Kalshi's founder Tarek Mansour recently argued that these results are accurate and not a result of manipulation. He stated, 'Harris's median bet is higher than Trump's'; Harris's median bet is $85, while Trump's is $58. An increasing number of people on the platform are betting on Trump's victory, and the 20 percentage point lead reflected on Polymarket corresponds roughly to the number of people. Based on the current total betting amount of over $2.4 billion on Polymarket, it is possible that Trump's winning probability has already been clearly demonstrated in this data.
Thanks to a series of crypto-friendly statements made by Trump previously, combined with the gradual dissemination of various positive news before the election, it may drive the crypto market, including Bitcoin, to experience a brief pullback before rising again.
