ETH BTC exchange rate has dropped to the lowest point in the past year, falling below 0.038. In fact, the trend of the exchange rate is quite obvious, having been in a continuous decline since the last bull market, with several adjustments in the ETH exchange rate including:
ETH Merge
POW to POS
ETF
These have temporarily boosted the exchange rate, but cannot reverse the long-term downward trend of the exchange rate. This first indicates one issue, which is that the meme of ETH ultraSoundMoney has completely failed.
We look at this issue from two angles, the first angle is why:
From the previous list, it can also be seen that ETH's upgrades in the last two years have mainly been at the infrastructure level, while innovation in applications has been basically absent, or even if there is any, it has not been accepted by the market. The increase in demand is always the priority, and the reduction in supply is not the key factor. The second issue that everyone is talking about, the fragmentation of liquidity and narrative, is that ETH actually has a bunch of 'little brothers' like Arb, OP, ZK, ENS that need to fly together, but the vehicle is too heavy. Speaking of liquidity fragmentation, it seems Vitalik has recently been forced to realize this, but in my view, it's a bit too late.
From a second perspective, can we see if the ETH/BTC exchange rate can come back? As mentioned earlier, the key is still on the demand side, which is innovation. This round, ETH may not necessarily have any significant innovations, but the next round could be different. After all, there is so much money and so many people involved. Then, looking back at the previous bear market, around 0.025-0.03 was a consensus support level for the exchange rate, so perhaps if the exchange rate tests the bottom this round, it might reach that point.
