Investors are watching Tesla closely for insights into CyberCap production and developments in autonomous driving.
Analysts expect the third-quarter earnings report to reveal how Tesla is managing key regulatory and market challenges.
With Tesla stock hitting critical support levels, earnings results could have a significant impact on the next price action.
Looking for actionable trading ideas to ride out the market volatility? Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to release its third-quarter financial results after U.S. markets close today.
Investors are eager to see how the company manages its ambitious goals, especially the upcoming Cybertruck launch and ongoing regulatory challenges.
Tesla stock has been in a slump following the recent unveiling of its self-driving Cybertruck, with many analysts and investors hoping for more detailed guidance on production timelines, an update on autonomous driving (FSD) and regulatory approvals.
However, analysts expect third-quarter earnings per share to come in at 60 cents, with revenue expected to come in at $25.4 billion.
Investor focus: Low-cost electric cars and robotaxis
Tesla's strategy to launch a low-cost electric vehicle (EV) is an important step to increase the company's sales in the future.
In the second quarter results, Elon Musk stated that they plan to start production of the new cars in the first half of 2024.
However, details about the car, which is called the Model 2 and is planned to be sold for less than $30,000, have not yet been shared. This raises another question mark among investors.
The “We, Robot” event, which showed no timelines and development details for new products like CyberCap and Robovan, has raised concerns that Tesla could fall behind rivals Waymo and Cruise in terms of legislation and technology.
However, Tesla may allay concerns by providing more details about these vehicles in its third-quarter earnings report.
Tesla Financial Performance
Although Tesla's full self-driving and robotics developments are very important to the company's future, we see deliveries as another important factor affecting the stock price in the short term.
Tesla's third-quarter vehicle deliveries exceeded the year-earlier figures but were slightly below market expectations.
The company increased its vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of the year, delivering 462,890 vehicles. However, this number was slightly lower than the 463,897 vehicles that analysts had expected.
Through the financial results that will be announced today, a perspective will be formed on the company's financial position, in addition to searching for evidence of plans and strategies.
In this context, data on low-priced cars and fully autonomous driving technology will be closely monitored.
Looking at the company's Q3 financial results, it is noted that analysts at InvestingPro are forecasting revenue for the fourth quarter at $25.67 billion.
While it is notable that the consensus estimate for Q3 was down 15%, it can be noted that this figure is in line with the previous quarter’s revenue of $25.5 billion. However, the forecast is higher than the $23.35 billion in the same period last year.
upcoming earnings
Tesla’s EPS forecast is $0.6 ahead of the earnings report, down 45%. While the EPS forecast is higher than the previous quarter, it is still expected to be lower than the same period last year.
Analysts' expectations
In the forecast for the coming periods, analysts expect earnings per share to reach $2.31 by the end of this year, a decline of 26%, while the long-term forecast expects earnings per share to increase by an average of 30% on an annual basis.
Tesla's year-end revenue guidance is $100.1 billion, up just 3%, while revenue is expected to grow just over 15% over the next two years.
InvestingPro also has positive financial comments for Tesla as follows:
The amount of cash on its balance sheet is higher than the debt.
Cash flow is sufficient to cover interest expenses.
High returns in the short and long term
ProTips
Tesla's failure to increase its dividend could be seen as a negative for shareholders, while the company's expected net profit to decline this year, weak profit margins, EBITDA valuations, and high FD ratio are other negative factors.
Additionally, Tesla's high volatility and poor performance in the past month are also among the factors to consider.
Fair value
In light of this information, InvestingPro's Fair Value Tool calculated a fair value price for Tesla stock of $217.65 based on 12 financial models.
This suggests that the stock is currently trading at fair value. Additionally, the view of 43 analysts on the platform shows Tesla’s short-term price forecast at $210.
Technical forecast for Tesla stock
While the stock began to reverse its trend in the second quarter of the year, it saw very volatile price movements in the process.
Tesla stock prices
The stock rose rapidly between April and July, reaching $265 (0.786 Fibonacci), a resistance level that it failed to break in the last quarter of last year. However, after being rejected again from this level, the stock made a deep correction towards $182.
While the stock failed to break above the 0.786 Fibonacci level on the latest bearish momentum, we saw the correction end in the middle range of the descending channel. As it stands, the recent 3-month recovery was again met with a sell-off at the $265 level. Then the failure of this month’s event led Tesla to retreat to the $219 support level.
The recent decline was also negative, causing the stock to break its short-term uptrend on volume. Tesla investors are now awaiting the Q3 earnings report at a crucial support level. If investors don’t get what they want in the report and questions remain unanswered again, we could see the stock’s downtrend continuing. In case of such negativity, the next support level is $200, and the stock could slide below $175.
On the other hand, if the earnings report meets expectations, we could see an increase in buying of Tesla stock above the $219 level. In this case, the first target in the $240 range will be followed, and depending on the stock returning to the upside again, we could see the key resistance point at $265 tested for the sixth time.