Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Recently, the Meme trading platform Moonshot has gained notoriety, praised by multiple posts on the X platform as the 'small Binance' on-chain, claiming it has solved the 'last mile' problem for Meme tokens and has a strong listing effect. (Note: The author reviewed 9 articles introducing Moonshot and found that 6 of them included recommended links, showing a clear promotional bias.)
So does Moonshot really have a significant listing effect? If so, is it short-term or long-lasting? Odaily will conduct a data review in this article.
Basic Situation Description
Statistical Subjects: This article has statistically analyzed 13 tokens listed on Moonshot in the past ten days, excluding other tokens that cross-chain to Moonshot, such as NPC, STONKS, etc.
Statistical Time: Using the listing time provided by the 'Moonshot Listings' account as a reference, the token prices are recorded 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours after listing, and at the current time (October 22, Beijing time 11:00).
Special Situation: Due to the inability to obtain the exact second of the listing announcement, the starting price is taken as the opening price of the 1-minute K-line, while other prices, such as the 5-minute price after listing, are taken as the closing price of the 1-minute K-line.
Listing Effect Review
The statistical results of prices in various time periods are shown below:
It can be clearly seen that there is a significant 'listing effect' in the 5 minutes after the listing announcement, with an average increase of 14.7% in the 5 minutes after the announcement, and the longer the time extends, the more significant the divergence becomes.
Additionally, excluding GOAT, the average increase from 5 minutes to 24 hours has actually been continuously increasing, but the cumulative increase since listing has seen a cliff-like decline.
Short-term listing effect is obvious
The 5-minute increase for each token listed on Moonshot is shown in the chart below, arranged from left to right according to the listing order. It can be seen that, except for XD, all have positive increases after the announcement.
After reviewing the K-line, the author found the possibility of an 'announcement bot' that automatically buys based on Moonshot announcements, especially for several small market cap tokens, where the 1-minute increase is more significant compared to the 5-minute increase.
The 1-hour increase chart is shown below, where most tokens maintain positive increases after 1 hour of the announcement, but divergence begins to appear, with several token increases starting to approach the 0 axis.
No listing effect in the mid-term
The chart below shows the 4-hour increase, where half of the tokens have erased their increases and continue to decline, while three tokens, Magnet, GOAT, and GNON, which were leaders in their respective stages, continue to rise, but it cannot be qualitatively determined that Moonshot is the fundamental reason for the increase.
The 24-hour increase chart is shown below, where slop and Shoggoth are included due to insufficient listing time of 4 hours. It is evident that the token price increases are becoming increasingly divergent, and it can be basically concluded that whether Moonshot lists has no direct relationship with the mid-term price increase of the tokens.
In the long term, it will eventually go to zero
The chart below shows the cumulative increase of each token from the time of the listing announcement to now. GOAT is not included in this chart due to its excessive increase. It can be seen that most tokens are heading towards zero, primarily because the tokens listed on Moonshot are all Meme tokens, which struggle to maintain attention and establish core consensus amidst the flood of similar tokens, making a decline to zero inevitable.
In summary, Moonshot listings often can only serve as a short-term reference indicator; whether tokens can continue to rise in the mid to short term is unrelated to it.
Furthermore, it can be found upon review that Moonshot listings occur only in the evening and early morning Beijing time, primarily focusing on popular tokens with a market cap around ten million. Readers focusing on trading during this time period can pay special attention to short-term opportunities.