Is this the reason you think Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 in the fourth quarter?

1. **U.S. Election:** Over the past decade, whether Trump or Biden was president, Bitcoin has experienced two cycles of bull and bear markets, indicating that Bitcoin's trend is not directly related to who is president.

2. **Improvement in the Job Market:** Although improvements in the unemployment rate may suggest a soft landing for the economy, this could also slow the magnitude and speed of interest rate cuts, and we will need to observe at least until next year.

3. **U.S. Stocks at New Highs:** Typically, even if U.S. stocks rise, the cryptocurrency market often declines independently. How will the cryptocurrency market react if U.S. stocks fall?

4. **ETF Inflows:** Despite a large influx of funds into Bitcoin ETFs recently, the price of Bitcoin has not risen significantly, indicating that there are also large amounts of money exiting the market. Grayscale investors have faced paper losses; can BlackRock guarantee profits?

5. **Weekly MACD Golden Cross:** The weekly MACD golden cross is considered a bullish signal, but in reality, it doesn't hold much significance, as a death cross may still occur after the golden cross.

6. **Trends After the Last Halving:** The key factor now affecting Bitcoin's long-term price trend is no longer the halving event, but monetary policy. The current adjustments in monetary policy, whether raising or lowering interest rates, will take longer than the last round, and the adjustment period will also be longer.

The core factor driving the rise in cryptocurrency market prices is the liquidity brought by monetary policy. Currently, the balance sheet reduction is ongoing, the dollar is rebounding strongly, interest rates remain high, and implementing quantitative easing (QE) is still far off, making it far from time to welcome a bubble. However, the price of Bitcoin has risen from $15,500 to $68,000; I really can't find a reason to buy Bitcoin now.