#BTC要挑战7W大关了吗？ #币安累计交易量突破100万亿美元
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Weekly Review
This week, from October 14 to October 21, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $69,000 and the lowest was close to $X, with an oscillation range of about 10.47%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 62,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 2.02 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.18 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important news
Economic News
The European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected on Thursday. ECB members expect inflation to reach 2% in the first or second quarter of next year. They believe that a rate cut in December is very likely and did not discuss the option of a 50 basis point rate cut.
The recent series of solid economic data in the United States has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November.
Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points between November 2024 and June 2025, and the final interest rate range will reach 3.25%-3.5%.
The median historical return of the S&P 500 between October 15 and December 31 was 5.17%, and the median return in election years was even slightly above 7%, meaning the year-end level could reach 6,270 points.
Deutsche Bank said the ECB's decision to cut interest rates on Thursday was significant and could represent a shift by the central bank toward accelerating its easing policy.
Traders are pricing in another rate cut in December and around 122 basis points of cuts by June next year, implying 25 basis points of cuts at each meeting before then.
U.S. statistics show that the number of initial jobless claims in the week was 241,000, lower than the expected value of 260,000, and the previous value was revised from 258,000 to 260,000. The monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in September was 0.4%, higher than the expected value of 0.3% and higher than the previous value of 0.1%.
Retail sales rose slightly more than expected in September, supporting the view that economic growth remained strong in the third quarter. Signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again next month, but will strengthen expectations of a quarter-point cut.
Goldman Sachs said it expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points between November 2024 and June 2025, with the final interest rate range reaching 3.25%-3.5%.
Encrypted ecological news
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) documents show that Morgan Stanley holds $272.1 million worth of BTC spot ETFs.
As of Thursday, 12 ETFs had cumulative net inflows of more than $1.85 billion, with BlackRock's net inflows exceeding $1.07 billion this week, likely marking the largest weekly inflow since mid-March.
The U.S. election is the next key catalyst for BTC and cryptocurrencies, but the market remains uncertain about the post-election trend.
Vitalik said at the 2024 Shanghai Blockchain International Week that the main problem of ETH now is the lack of a unified ecosystem. The current ETH is like 34 different chains, and in the future it should be like a unified ecosystem. Solutions include chain-specific addresses, etc.
According to the Aspen Digital report, 76% of Asian private wealth has already been involved in digital assets, and another 18% plans to invest in the future. The report surveyed 80 family offices and high-net-worth individuals in Asia. Most of the respondents managed assets between US$10 million and US$500 million.
Compared with only 58% of respondents involved in digital assets in 2022, this is a significant increase. Digital assets account for less than 5% of 70% of investment portfolios. With the approval of spot BTC ETFs in the United States and Hong Kong, 53% of respondents have gained cryptocurrency exposure through funds or ETFs.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Long-term holders' chip structure
Long-term and short-term costs and inventory
Crypto ETF Funding Status
(The following figure shows the long-term holders’ chip structure)
The data in the figure shows that long-term participants are reducing their chips; querying more data shows that short-term participants are increasing their chips.
The stage chips are being exchanged with short-term chips.
(Figure below: Long-term and short-term costs and inventory)
Around $70,000 is an important stage for the market and also a certain level of profit ceiling for long-term participants.
It is about the top of this stage's stock (funds in the market).
More external funds may be needed to achieve a breakthrough in the market.
(Figure below shows the status of crypto ETF funds)
The crypto ETF funds in the United States show that over-the-counter funds are still relatively active in the near term.
Buying reserves have picked up, and there is no pressure from Grayscale now. If there is continued buying in the future, it will have a very good positive effect on promoting the market and help the market break through or approach new highs.
Mid-term exploration
Changes in net positions of long-term and short-term holders
Liquidity Supply
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Whale comprehensive scoring model
USDC Purchasing Power Comprehensive Score
(The following figure shows the changes in the net positions of long-term and short-term holders)
Explore the changes in the net positions of long-term and short-term holders, and analyze the two macro trend forces in the market from a time dimension.
When the market is rising or improving, it is usually the long-term or short-term holders who choose to hold or buy.
From the perspective of market weight, since long-term participants hold more coins, the maximum amount of coins can reach more than 13.6 million, while the maximum amount of coins held by short-term participants can only reach more than 3.2 million.
Therefore, the holding/buying behavior of long-term participants will be weighted higher.
The market is currently in a rhythm where short-term participants are slowly increasing their positions and long-term participants are slightly selling their chips.
Perhaps the current instability in the market is due to long-term players passing on their chips to short-term players.
If short-term participants are unable to take on the chips, the market may stagnate.
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
Liquidity is slowly increasing. It is possible that the liquidity in the market has not yet reached a bottleneck, and the trading environment in the market is still relatively good.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The online sentiment is constantly rising, and may not have reached a bottleneck yet, and the sentiment in the venue has not dropped.
(The following figure shows the comprehensive scoring model of the giant whale)
The scores of the whale group have been very high, so they may not have any large-scale collective selling actions for the time being.
(USDC purchasing power comprehensive score in the figure below)
USDC users' willingness to participate has declined and they are currently in a state of weak purchasing power.
It is possible that U.S. institutions have high concerns about the current market conditions, or they are not making much buying action at the moment.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor enters the red zone and the risk increases.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The derivative risk factor suggests that it has reached the red zone. Combined with the fact that a large amount of chips have been changed hands and accumulated around the current price of 68K this week, the probability of a sharp correction at the current price is expected to be low.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume increased slightly, and the proportion of put options increased slightly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives volume returned to the bottom area.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has not changed much.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Last week's small short squeeze in the market also led to a surge in positive market sentiment. Currently, the positive sentiment has fallen slightly, and the market may consolidate slightly at the current price before continuing the short squeeze.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
Newly added and active addresses are at medium-high levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC continues to outflow overall, while ETH continues to inflow.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC continues to outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH continues to flow in.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power loss, stablecoin purchasing power loss.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
There has been a small loss of global purchasing power.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net position outflow.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 62,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 58,000 and 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000 and 72000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 58,000 and 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000 and 72000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 58000 and 62000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000 and 72000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Since October 11, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net inflows of more than $1.6 billion.
The crypto market is beginning to gradually regain strength.
Central banks around the world have generally entered an era of interest rate cuts, risky assets have entered a bull market, and the possibility of a sharp drop in cryptocurrencies is gradually decreasing.
Monetary policy is becoming more and more loose, the water is accumulating more and more, the sediment below is too thick, time is exchanged for space, and crypto and risky assets will always break through the highs.
From experience, the crypto market will go through a stage where BTC breaks through first, while the remaining currencies wait and catch up.
On-chain long-term insights:
Long-term participants are dumping their holdings in relatively small quantities; the overall speed is not large, and short-term participants are starting to actively buy;
The 70,000 level is currently quite important, it is a stage top and needs additional strength to break through;
The level of ETF fund inflows in the United States currently looks good. If the positive inflows can continue, it may increase the probability of the market breaking through new highs or approaching new highs.
Market setting:
It is still in the accumulation stage and requires additional funds to intervene. We need to pay close attention to the flow of funds of US crypto ETFs.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Currently in an exchange where long players are selling their chips to short players;
There is still good liquidity in the market;
The mood of the participants in the field did not drop;
Whales still have a high willingness to buy/hold and have not seen any selling;
USDC users have low enthusiasm for participation, and some even have a wait-and-see attitude.
Market setting:
Anxiety
The market is in a state of chip exchange, which may be unstable to a certain extent, but buyers still have spare power.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor enters the red zone and the risk increases.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-high level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a continuous outflow of BTC and a continuous inflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power is lost, and stablecoin purchasing power is lost.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 62,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 60%.
Market setting:
In the short term, the positive sentiment of the market has slightly declined, and the purchasing power is also at a low level. It may fluctuate around the current price or retreat slightly. In addition, observing the chip chart, it is found that chips are also rapidly accumulating near the current price. It is recommended to pay attention to the medium and long-term trends.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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