According to TechFlow, on October 21, former President Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by 20 percentage points on Polymarket, sparking concerns about manipulation. Tarek Mansour, founder of the Kalshi prediction market, recently argued that these results were accurate and not the result of inorganic manipulation by providing comparable data from Kalshi.

Tarek Mansour first refuted the claim that a few big bettors were tilting the odds in Trump's favor. "The median bet on Harris was larger than the median bet on Donald Trump," with the median bet on Harris being $85 and the median bet on Trump being $58.

The founder also explained that a growing number of individuals on the Kalshi platform are betting on Trump, with the 20-point lead on Polymarket roughly matching the number of individuals on Kalshi betting that Trump will win the November election.