China hasn't cracked encryption yet, but will it break through soon?

Researchers at Shanghai University recently made headlines when they claimed to have cracked the RSA encryption algorithm used in banking, military, and cryptocurrency applications. However, popular YouTuber Mental Outlaw asserted that the breakthrough in China is unlikely to have any impact on current encryption standards due to severe computational and physical limitations.

According to the research paper, the quantum computer used in the experiment factored the integer 2,269,753. Mental Outlaw notes that this beats the record of other quantum computers, but falls short of the record of classical computers.

The YouTuber clarified that the quantum computer only broke a 22-bit key. For comparison, the classical computer's record was breaking an 892-bit key, which would have required 2,700 physical core years to do.

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Encryption algorithms and key sizes. Source: Mental Outlaw.

For further comparison, the original RSA encryption used 512-bit keys, while modern standards adopted around 2015 range from 2,048 to 4,096 bits. Furthermore, quantum computers cannot be merged to achieve greater processing power and overcome this limitation.

Quantum bits also require temperatures near absolute zero to maintain sufficient stability to function as viable information processors, which requires significant cooling systems.

Another issue highlighted in the YouTube video is that most of the quantum bits in a quantum computing system are used for error correction. This means that most of the potential processing power in a quantum computer is used to tweak the output rather than solve the main problem that was fed into the computer.

The popular YouTuber concluded that quantum computers do not yet pose a significant threat to modern encryption standards, but warned that this could change due to faster-than-expected technological advances.

Tech companies are rushing to create quantum-resistant cryptography.

Tech companies have already taken action to ensure that encryption standards remain quantum-resistant. In July 2023, major bank HSBC revealed it was testing quantum-resistant banking infrastructure.

Then, in September 2023, IBM Quantum and Microsoft formed a quantum cryptography alliance to research and develop cryptographic protections in a post-quantum world.

More recently, in February 2024, Apple joined the growing list of tech companies adopting post-quantum cryptography by making iMessage quantum-resistant.

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