Dear friends, thank you for your hard work. After a whole day of intensive communication and sharing, everyone may feel exhausted. Here, I would like to bring you some more relaxing topics.
The topic I want to discuss with you today is "Redefining Token in the AGI Era". In fact, the word "Token" existed before blockchain, but its connotation and definition have been constantly evolving and iterating. Therefore, at this point in time, we need to re-examine and redefine Token to prove that it is not an evil thing, but a legitimate and valuable term.
Three cognitive revolutions of mankind
To deeply understand the core value of Token economics, perhaps we can start from the human history tens of thousands of years ago. I recently read a new book called (Beyond Homo Sapiens). The book mentioned that a scientist divided human history into three cognitive revolutions.
The first cognitive revolution occurred tens of thousands of years ago when humans invented language. The birth of language made it possible for human society to form, collaboration to be possible, and the exchange of ideas to be possible. Before that, these activities were extremely difficult.
The second cognitive revolution occurred thousands of years ago when humans invented writing. The emergence of writing not only facilitated communication, but also allowed all knowledge and experience to be accumulated and passed on. As a result, human society has developed better.
The third cognitive revolution took place decades ago. With the invention of computer language and code, human society entered a new era. I believe that this revolution did not begin in the era of big models, but quietly began when computer language and code were invented in the last century. Because code, human language and text are tools for human cognition and expression, they jointly promote the progress of human society.
Today, in the digital society and virtual space, algorithms, computing power and data have become the foundation for building a new society. In the AGI era, the term Token is frequently mentioned again to define certain functions of AI or as the basis for pricing.
From the era of code to the era of big models, mankind is completing the third cognitive revolution.
Five stages of AGI development
Open AI divides the development of AI into five stages. Two months ago, we just entered the second stage. But with the launch of Open AI's o1, the second stage has been officially achieved. And just a week ago, Elon Musk's unmanned driving technology (Robo Taix) indicates that the third stage is about to be realized.
The first stage is the chatterer, and ChatGPT has helped us achieve this goal.
The second stage is the reasoner, when the machine begins to have the ability to think. The "Turing Test" proposed by Turing in 1950 was designed to test the thinking ability of machines. With the launch of O1, we can answer Turing's question: machines can indeed think.
The third stage is intelligent entities, where machines not only have the ability to think, but also the ability to act. Musk's driverless technology is a typical example of this stage.
The fourth stage is the innovator. It is expected that in the near future, AI will be able to innovate from zero to one and no longer rely on human guidance and creativity.
The fifth stage is the organizer, which is a more difficult task than innovation. It requires AI to be able to systematically build a parallel universe and operate it effectively.
According to Open AI's division method, we expect that the third stage should be achieved by the end of this year or before June next year.
AGI and ASI
Another classification method divides AI into general artificial intelligence (AGI) and super artificial intelligence (ASI). Some people predict that in the era of super artificial intelligence, the intelligence of AI will far exceed that of humans, even to the point where "everyone is Einstein."
When will the watershed from AGI to ASI come? When will the singularity occur? Kurzweil predicted in his 2005 book (The Singularity Is Near) and this year's new book (The Singularity Is Closer) that 2030 will be the time when the ASI singularity arrives. The most recent prediction is that between 2026 and 2030, AI will enter the fifth stage of development, which is also the watershed between AGI and ASI.
UBI and UHI
Training AI requires data, but the quality of the data is crucial. Garbage data will only produce garbage results. Using AI-synthesized data to train large models often leads to degraded model performance. Therefore, what we need is random data generated by humans.
As long as we are born as human beings, the data we generate is the data needed by AI and the best data in the big model, rather than the data generated by the big model itself and AI.
I have seen two research groups that have proven that using AI-generated data to train large AI models will cause the large models to crash.
Therefore, as long as you are born as a human being and as long as you can generate random data, you should receive feedback from AI, because this is very important to AI, and it is you who makes AI smarter.
Therefore, it makes sense to propose the concept of national basic income (UBI). Because humans provide AI with data that makes it smarter and smarter, AI should give value back to humans.
In addition, with the advent of the era of super artificial intelligence, some people have proposed the concept of national higher income (UHI). In this era, AI will create greater economic value, and this value needs to be distributed to humans.
Among the representatives of the AI era, Sam Altman of Open AI and Elon Musk of Tesla both have deep roots in Token. Sam Altman not only launched the Worldcoin project, but also commissioned Stanford University to conduct a three-year UBI experiment. Musk may use Token for value exchange in interstellar travel or on Mars.
The value law of the digital age
In the context of the digital age, the value laws of the digital economy and digital business have undergone tremendous changes. The digital economy is characterized by high fixed costs, low marginal costs, or even zero marginal costs. This enables valuable products, goods, and services to achieve exponential growth, following a power law distribution rather than a normal distribution.
The digital economy is cross-time, cross-space, cross-subject, and cross-organization. Therefore, we need blockchain and tokens to ensure that payment settlement and asset marking in the digital world can be unimpeded. In the digital world, most of the classical physics may no longer exist, and the production factors have become algorithms, computing power, and computing data (or "three calculations").
In the agricultural civilization period, wealth was accumulated by land; in the industrial civilization period, it was accumulated by factories and machinery and equipment; in the digital economy era, these are of course still part of wealth, but the newly created wealth is more measured in digital form. Therefore, Token has become a measure of value in the digital economy era.
Three elements of traditional financial markets and crypto financial markets
With the fundamental changes in the way value is created in the digital era, we are gradually building an encrypted financial market that is completely different from the traditional financial market. No matter what kind of financial market it is, its basic structure contains three major elements: accounting methods, accounting accounts and accounting units, and there are significant differences between these elements.
In traditional financial markets, double-entry bookkeeping is the accounting method that all organizations follow. The bookkeeping accounts are mainly bank accounts, and the accounting units are legal tender, such as RMB. In contrast, the bookkeeping method of the crypto financial market adopts distributed bookkeeping (i.e. blockchain technology). Here, the bookkeeping account does not refer to a specific currency (although it may involve the US dollar, euro, etc.), but more importantly, its accounting unit and method have taken on a completely new form, which is completely different from the tokens or legal tender in the traditional financial market.
The crypto-financial market we are building, as another important field outside the traditional financial market, has undergone fundamental changes in its basic elements. Among them, the accounting method adopts the distributed accounting method, namely blockchain technology. The essence of blockchain lies in its decentralized and distributed ledger characteristics, which provides a global open and transparent accounting platform.
In contrast, double-entry bookkeeping relies on private ledgers notarized by a third party. Since private ledgers may be questioned for authenticity, they need to be regulated by laws and regulations such as the (Accounting Law) and audited by accountants in accordance with the regulations. In addition, in order to ensure the authenticity of the ledgers, the protection of the judicial system is also required. These measures are all aimed at ensuring the authenticity of private ledgers as much as possible and reducing the possibility of false records.
However, distributed ledgers do not require these cumbersome safeguards. Due to its inherent immutability, all records are authentic and reliable and cannot be forged or tampered with. Therefore, from a cost perspective, distributed ledgers are undoubtedly more cost-effective. For the entire society, the cost of this accounting method will also be lower.
The Millennium Change of Accounting Methods in Human Society
The accounting methods of human society have undergone three iterations so far:
(1) As early as 3500 BC, single-entry bookkeeping was invented. This method was discovered in the cradle of human civilization, the Euphrates and Tigris delta, in the Sumerian region of present-day Iraq. Archaeologists unearthed a clay tablet from 3500 BC, which was confirmed to be the earliest account book in human history. It used the single-entry bookkeeping method and simply recorded income and expenditure.
(2) By 1300 AD, double-entry bookkeeping was born in the Mediterranean region of Italy. At that time, city-states in northern Italy, such as Florence and Venice, conducted trade activities through the Mediterranean. These maritime trades were extremely complex, and single-entry bookkeeping could no longer meet the needs of accurately and comprehensively recording economic activities. Since maritime trade involved borrowing, chartering, partnerships, and taxation, double-entry bookkeeping gradually emerged in order to clearly record every transaction.
It is worth noting that the emergence of double-entry bookkeeping in 1300 AD not only marked a major advancement in bookkeeping methods, but was also a direct response to the complex maritime trade needs of the Italian Mediterranean region.
(3) Then in 2009, distributed accounting came into being, thanks to the introduction of Bitcoin blockchain technology. The value of distributed accounting is self-evident. Its magnitude is so great that it is a once-in-a-millennium event, far beyond the annual iteration of technological products. The far-reaching impact and value of this accounting method are still difficult to estimate. I believe that no one can tell us exactly how distributed ledgers will reshape human society and what unprecedented benefits it will bring us.
Definition and Classification of Tokens
Tokens existed before blockchain. From a value perspective, the earliest tokens were small change and coins. In computer systems, tokens are tokens, which are licenses to use computer systems. In the AGI era, tokens have become units of data, used to measure the cost of using large models.
In the digital economy era, tokens are divided into the following categories as value symbols:
Payment Token: Various countries are legislating and issuing licenses to issue compliant stablecoins.
Functional Token: Extended from the token of the computer system, it refers to the right to use the network.
Security Token: involving STO, RWA, DeFi and other fields.
Reserve Token: Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which serve as the underlying assets of crypto finance.
Two financial markets running in parallel
The financial market system based on bank accounts and the financial market system based on crypto accounts will develop in parallel. Interconnection between the two is expected to be realized in 2025. Through tools and channels such as stablecoins, ETFs, RWAs, STOs, and licensed institutions, the two markets will be connected and integrated with each other.
That’s all I’m sharing today, thank you everyone!
