Bitcoin poised to hit new highs? You still need to meet "this condition"
Bitcoin prices climbed rapidly at the start of the week, reaching a high of $67,963 on October 15. Judging from the daily trend, compared with the previous high of $66,450 on September 27, this trend has formed a new higher point (HH3).
However, after challenging the highs, Bitcoin also quickly fell back, plunging more than $3,000 to a low of $64,781. Can the market outlook continue to rise? Some analysts pointed out that it may take some time for Bitcoin to completely break through $70,000.
(Cointelegraph) Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly said Bitcoin faces strong selling pressure between $67,000 and $68,300 while also needing to break above a key downward trend line dating from March 2024.
Historical data shows that unless Bitcoin can close above $68,300 in the next few days, it may be challenging to break through $70,000 this week.
Source: Cointelegraph Bitcoin daily trend chart
Well-known analyst Rekt Capital said that if Bitcoin can close above the lower high of the downtrend on a weekly basis, then Bitcoin will have the opportunity to challenge the range high again, and may completely Breaking through the ReAccumulation Range, as shown in the figure below:
Figure source: Bitcoin trend analyzed by XRektcapital
Looking at Bitcoin demand from 2 big data
Ki Young Ju, CEO of blockchain analysis platform CryptoQuant, pointed out that the apparent demand for Bitcoin is increasing. This indicator shows the new supply (mining issuance) and long-term holding changes (inactivity for more than one year). supply).
Current apparent demand levels are similar to February 2024, when Bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in March.
Source: CryptoQuant Bitcoin’s apparent demand (apparent demand)
Bitcoin on-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr also said:
"Demand from new investors to buy coins has returned, growing 3% over the past 10 days, which is a bullish sign for the market."
Image source: CryptoQuant New investor needs
Investors should also be wary of excessive leverage
While spot demand for Bitcoin has improved in recent weeks, the current rally is largely driven by the derivatives market, and investors should be mindful of the risk of over-leveraging the market.
Velo.data data shows that Bitcoin’s open interest increased by US$800 million last week, which once pushed the price to US$64,500, but then fell at the speed of light, once falling below the US$60,000 mark.
Market analyst Maartunn reminded investors to be cautious because last week's decline was caused by excessive leverage. This week, more than $1.5 billion in open interest has fueled the rally again, making the stakes high.
Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin heat map shows that the current indicator has exceeded the overheat value of 2024 for the first time, indicating that the leveraged market will need to reset soon.
Source: Capriole InvestmentsCapriole Investments Bitcoin heat map
Major Catalysts Behind Bitcoin’s Rise
The economic stimulus measures recently announced by the Chinese government have become one of the main catalysts for this round of gains. According to an exclusive report from (Caixin.com), the Chinese government may issue ultra-long-term special government bonds in the next three years to raise approximately 6 trillion yuan in funds to address the economic slowdown.
According to (CoinPost), Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset management company Bitwise, has predicted that China’s policies may help Bitcoin prices reach $80,000 by the end of this year.
However, there are also reports that due to the impact of economic stimulus measures, cryptocurrency investors’ funds may be returning to the Chinese stock market. However, analysts believe that this is a temporary phenomenon. It is expected that funds will flow back into the cryptocurrency market, but the long-term impact of the stimulus policy Be skeptical.
Extended reading: Stock trading is better than currency trading? Is the transfer of currency circle funds to the Chinese stock market a hidden crisis for Bitcoin?
The current trend of Bitcoin is affected by many factors, including increased market demand, risks of leveraged trading, and potential macroeconomic policy changes. Although it may face some resistance in the short term, in the long term, if it can break through key resistance levels and be supported by fundamentals, there is still the possibility of reaching new highs.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. All the above views and analyzes are for reference only. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
