How the US election may affect Bitcoin



The US presidential election is less than a month away, and everything is still at stake. At press time, prediction markets and surveys favor Trump over Harris. Harris has also backed crypto. Bitcoin's two-week high and robust ETF inflows made October favorable for BTC.

Pro-crypto Trump

After calling the industry a hoax, Trump has made a remarkable flip this year. Instead, Trump has pledged to make the US the crypto capital of the world, set up Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler to win over younger blockchain-friendly voters.

Bitcoin may surge with a Trump win, but without a Republican majority in Congress, Trump may struggle to pass crypto-friendly rules.

Crypto endorsement from Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris is slowly flashing her cards. Last month, the vice president and Democratic presidential contender called bitcoin a future industry. Harris committed to support crypto regulation on Monday, increasing Bitcoin's price despite her vague words. With four weeks till election day, her discussion may have been too late.

This is one of Harris' rare references of crypto in her recent campaigns, so there's hope she won't expand the Biden administration's crypto persecution.

Is the US election win-win?

Harris is supporting crypto, whereas Trump is clearly pro-crypto. Market players may see the race as a win-win regardless of the next president. Neither Trump nor Harris plans to cut US debt, retaining Bitcoin's attraction over fiat currencies.

October improves

Bitcoin is also benefiting from its cycle position, reduced interest rate expectations, and greater institutional engagement. Monday saw $556 million in spot bitcoin ETF inflows, the largest since early June. The 12 US spot BTC ETFs have about $62 billion in assets.

Over the previous decade, Bitcoin has gained 20% in October. Bitcoin is up 3.5% in October after a rough start.

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