China's asset market warms up
The sudden rise in Bitcoin is believed to be due to the Chinese government's announcement of new economic stimulus policies and expectations for the US presidential election.
China's Ministry of Finance announced on the 12th that it would expand fiscal spending and other positive fiscal policies. China's finance minister said at a press conference on the 12th that "the central government has a relatively large debt space." The specific scale of treasury bond issuance has not yet been announced, but foreign media predict that the scale of China's government bond issuance will be about 2 trillion to 10 trillion yuan.
The Chinese government released funds as expected, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.01% and 2.07% respectively, setting new highs, driving the rise of Bitcoin.
‘Cryptocurrency support’ becomes focus of US election
With less than a month left until the U.S. presidential election on November 5, this has also driven a sharp rise in Bitcoin.
In the upcoming US presidential election on November 5, the support rate of former President Trump, who announced his support for cryptocurrency, has risen sharply. According to data released by the various betting sites 'Polymarket', Trump's chances of winning are 54.8%, much higher than Vice President Kamala Harris's 44.8%.
The fierce competition between the two candidates is tilting towards Trump, who supports cryptocurrency, and investors are flocking to cryptocurrency markets such as Bitcoin.
CoinDesk, a professional cryptocurrency media, said that "the US election is becoming another catalyst for the rise in cryptocurrency prices" and "the prediction market has changed in the past few days, and Trump, who supports cryptocurrency, has a higher probability of being elected."
Vice President Harris also announced policy commitments to support the cryptocurrency market on her official website. In the "Economic Opportunity" commitment section, the Harris campaign team stated that it would establish a federal-level cryptocurrency regulatory program to protect cryptocurrency investors and the cryptocurrency market.
Both candidates nominated for the next US president have expressed support for cryptocurrencies, and expectations are forming inside and outside the market that the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets will surge after the election, regardless of who is elected.
Dramatic October market moves
Behind the sharp rise of Bitcoin, there is also analysis that the dramatic trend of the cryptocurrency market in October eventually turned into huge expectations.
Bitcoin has been falling since early October due to factors such as the rising risk of war in the Middle East, the timing of the Chinese government's economic stimulus policy not meeting expectations, and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September being lower than expected. Bitcoin fell about 7% in the first week of October, hitting the $62,000 mark, which is very different from the "rise" everyone expected.
After a disappointing start to October, investors' attention to Bitcoin has declined. According to Google Trends data on the 13th, the search volume for the term "Bitcoin" hit a one-year low, scoring only 33 points out of 100.
Most Bitcoin futures investors bet on short positions, causing Bitcoin to surge. Data from the on-chain analysis platform Glassnode showed that when Bitcoin surged, about $2.5 billion (about 3.39 trillion won) of open contracts were liquidated on the afternoon of the 14th, leading to a 2.5% increase in the intraday.
The real ‘uptrend’?
Based on on-chain analysis data, most experts believe this is an 'intentional rally'.
On the 14th, the on-chain analysis platform Whale Alert stated through its official X account that 400 million USDT flowed into Binance on the 14th, indicating that there was an intentional buy order. Crypto Briefing, a professional cryptocurrency media, explained that "there was an intentional USDT inflow in the past day, which was an action to push the market up."
