Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says there are three key conditions for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $80,000, but he also emphasizes that a broader crypto rally will be needed for Bitcoin to rise to $100,000.
Bitwise's CIO Lists 3 Conditions for $80,000 Bitcoin!
Matt Hougan, CIO of crypto asset manager Bitwise, lists the US election results, the state of the economy, and the absence of major surprises in the crypto industry as three key factors affecting the chances of a Bitcoin rally above $80,000 this quarter. Bitwise had predicted that Bitcoin would surpass $80,000 by the end of 2023. At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $42,400. In addition, spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the US and Bitcoin’s fourth halving event are among the catalysts for this prediction.
Hougan stands by this prediction, stating that a strong Democratic victory in the US elections is important. The Bitwise CIO says that most people are evaluating the election results in a binary way: pro-crypto Donald Trump is positive for the sector, while Kamala Harris is negative. He notes that a Republican win is “undoubtedly” a good sign, but the Democrats’ situation is more complicated.
At this point, the analyst explains: “The Democratic Party has a range of views on crypto, from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s ‘Anti-Crypto Army’ to Representative Ritchie Torres. The last four years have created a hostile environment for the industry due to the Warren wing controlling policy and agency appointments. Bitcoin doesn’t need politicians to thrive; it just needs to get out of their way. I suspect they will adopt a more neutral approach to the industry if Democrats control both houses of Congress and the White House.”
On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the Democrats have a 20% chance of winning and the Republicans have a 33% chance of winning. Hougan says the platform currently gives a 53% chance of a Trump presidential victory, a 73% chance of a Republican-controlled Senate and a 62% chance of a Democrat-controlled House.
Moreover, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein also agreed on Wednesday that the Bitcoin price could reach all-time highs in the $80,000 to $90,000 range if Donald Trump wins the election.
Hougan says that two interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points are needed by the end of the year in terms of the economy. He also notes that additional fiscal stimulus from China is among the other conditions needed for a Bitcoin rally. “The main reason people are interested in Bitcoin is simple: You can’t trust the government with money,” he says. If both of these things happen, “I think we will have our Q4 rally. Otherwise, the disappointment could put pressure on the market,” he says.
According to the analyst, another important condition for Bitcoin to trade above $80,000 this year is that there are no major surprises in the crypto industry. In this regard, Hougan says, “No major hacks, no major new lawsuits, no sudden release of previously locked coins.”
